Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, vegan_edible said:

can someone explain to me why the cutter would change the track? i think i get it but also don't lmao

Models are speculating what they think in regards to how the cutter will change the pattern or what will happen. When models get data after the cutter it will be more up to date. I think 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

More so in El Nino patterns or patterns with strong NATL blocking you'll tend to see changes from Day 5 inside than you otherwise would because the faster flow in other patterns is likely to mess things up but the big cutter yet to happen is likely something that will change the evolution 

Typically, the Euro shines during El Niños (southern stream) and the GFS sucks, it does much better in northern branch dominated/Nina winters

[brooklynwx99]

that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. just for reference 

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Models are speculating what they think in regards to how the cutter will change the pattern or what will happen. When models get data after the cutter it will be more up to date. I think 

Adding to this:  First, the cutter is a huge storm. Watch what it does on the GFS on tropical - hit PLAY on this map on the link and you can see in motion how the whole eastern half of the US is impacted by this thing. 

GFS Model – 500mb Height & MSLP for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

It ultimately acts as a 'gear' helping pull cold down in the eastern 1/3 of the US.  Exactly HOW that low amplifies the pattern is whats at stake.  A Met will chime in right now and correct me.

[North and West]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Did the energy in sw canada mess this up?

[North and West]

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Models are speculating what they think in regards to how the cutter will change the pattern or what will happen. When models get data after the cutter it will be more up to date. I think 

[kingbaus]

Happy hour runs should be coming out soon.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

looking forward to spring and warm weather...

and when the warm weather is here you yearn for cold weather?

make up your mind will you!

 

[MJO812]

Icon?

[kingbaus]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Icon?

It's not a bad hit for us.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon?

3-4 but only goes out to hr 120 

[NJwx85]

18z GFS is going to probably be West of 12z. The southern vort is more amped up than 12z and the trough axis is further West.

[kingbaus]

Looking better than the euro so far. I don't know a whole lot.

[SBUWX23]

It kinda looks a little slower 

[mannynyc]

Icon

[kingbaus]

I think it might be a hit. 

[Franklin0529]

Gfs about to go boom. Def won't look like the Euro 

[NJwx85]

18z GFS is a big hit as predicted

[Franklin0529]

Another run another solution.  

[SBUWX23]

I feel like what's going on in the 50/50 region is very important to this outcome. Let's hope it's onto something because I think this prevents the low from being an inland runner.

 

 

[SBUWX23]

Just now, SBUWX23 said:

I feel like what's going on in the 50/50 region is very important to this outcome. Let's hope it's onto something because I think this prevents the low from being an inland runner.

 

 

However any closer and it's a ptype problem for the coast and big cities 

[wishcast_hater]

A 1006mb low well off shore doesn’t scream big snowstorm to me especially given where we were yesterday at 12z

You must be one of the most negative posters on here. Always bringing up worst case for it not to snow, always looking forward to “torches”. It’s tiring.


.

[kingbaus]

Hopefully it doesn't get too amped up.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

You must be one of the most negative posters on here. Always bringing up worst case for it not to snow, always looking forward to “torches”. It’s tiring.


.

Ignore him

[milleand]

9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

You must be one of the most negative posters on here. Always bringing up worst case for it not to snow, always looking forward to “torches”. It’s tiring.


.

Always supports his opinion with thorough explanations, images, data etc. 

Although, it may not be what everyone wants to hear, I have learned a lot about weather from him. As well as a lot of others on here. 
 

Hoping it snows for All in this forum

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, milleand said:

Always supports his opinion with thorough explanations, images, data etc. 

Although, it may not be what everyone wants to hear, I have learned a lot about weather from him. As well as a lot of others on here. 
 

Hoping it snows for All in this forum

Whether you want to read it or not (put him on Ignore if you don’t want to read it), he hasn’t been wrong. He might be right for the wrong reason and he picks too many fights but there is some analysis/reasoning behind what he says. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, milleand said:

Always supports his opinion with thorough explanations, images, data etc. 

Although, it may not be what everyone wants to hear, I have learned a lot about weather from him. As well as a lot of others on here. 
 

Hoping it snows for All in this forum

You are obviously new here. The guy never thinks it's going to snow and any model that shows nothing or warm and wet is the model that he hugs. I have never seen a positive post from him about an upcoming event if it means a snow possibility. With this snow potential next week the CMC, GFS, Ukie, Icon show a possible wintry solution to differing degrees. The Euro shows nothing. Which model do you think he is touting right now? I just laugh. 

[SBUWX23]

Some members close to the coast but not a bad look.

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

Some members close to the coast but not a bad look.

 

Close to the coast is what we want. You want a rapidly deepening system and then the rest will take care of itself.

[SBUWX23]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Close to the coast is what we want. You want a rapidly deepening system and then the rest will take care of itself.

We don't want it too close as that introduces issues aloft and potentially surface.