Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Franklin0529]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS may be playing to its bias of being too far to the SE at this range as the 12z UKMET looks as amped up as the CMC.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=24&nh=1&archive=0

 

Gfs moving towards the euro. Even the NBM model gives us 5-6"

[Franklin0529]

Long way to go of course. 

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS may be playing to its bias of being too far to the SE at this range as the 12z UKMET looks as amped up as the CMC.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=24&nh=1&archive=0

 

In winter, as the last inland storm. CMC is I think the leader.  I continue that now that we’re in real winter.  That means at least some rain coast Will check back tonight sometime.  Glad there is something to track

[brooklynwx99]

the CMC has been lost, though. it's completely changed the trough orientation over the last couple of days. seems like everything is moving towards the ECMWF

[Volcanic Winter]

Based on current model guidance, do I have a chance for some snow down here in northern Ocean (about 8-10 miles inland)? 

I have that pang of doubt that the coast will rain but with a much further south and east mix zone / cutoff than the last storm, which of course will be good for NYC. But my anxiety is slowly ratcheting up. The theme of “the coast rains” has been strong this season, though I think NYC latitude will do better this time (which is good). Also thinking Middlesex and north should be solid. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Based on current model guidance, do I have a chance for some snow down here in northern Ocean (about 10 miles inland)? 

I have that pang of doubt that the coast will rain but with a much further south and east mix zone / cutoff than the last storm, which of course will be good for NYC. But my anxiety is slowly ratcheting up. The theme of “the coast rains” has been strong this season, though I think NYC latitude will do better this time (which is good). Also thinking Middlesex and north should be solid. 

Still 5 days away. Gonna be lots of changes. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Of course, we’re gonna need the cutter to clear first. Was sort of asking based on current synoptics as opposed to OP snow maps which don’t tell us much yet. 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS also increased confluence

[WX-PA]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am concerned that the Euro is hanging too much energy back to the SW and it comes closer to the CMC in later runs.

 

Well any model could be off 5 days out.And your smart enough to know that GEM is a crap model. 

[yoda]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS may be playing to its bias of being too far to the SE at this range as the 12z UKMET looks as amped up as the CMC.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=24&nh=1&archive=0

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, yoda said:

 

Compare to what it was showing last night

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am concerned that the Euro is hanging too much energy back to the SW and it comes closer to the CMC in later runs.

 

That is a know bias with the EURO so definite possibility.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Compare to what it was showing last night

Nothing in NYC 

 

[Franklin0529]

Also the CMC was terrible for the storm last weekend. Probably won't get a good idea till tommorow night or Saturday when the cutter clears. Just another solution 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Well any model could be off 5 days out.And your smart enough to know that GEM is a crap model. 

Agree

Cmc is starting to come on board

[brooklynwx99]

UKMET pretty drastically increased confluence with a more favorable orientation of the trough. good move

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Cmc is starting to come on board

even though the model run of CMC showed green along the coast the clown snow map showed this

[SBUWX23]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET pretty drastically increased confluence with a more favorable orientation of the trough. good move

whos to say that it won't shift the trough east a bit more

[donsutherland1]

Lots of uncertainty still exists with regard to the potential storm. It’s too early to celebrate (GFS) or mourn (GGEM).

[NEG NAO]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Lots of uncertainty still exists with regard to the potential storm. It’s too early to celebrate (GFS) or mourn (GGEM).

GGEM has snow too

[NJwx85]

The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.

I don't think you're getting any cutter from this but certainly something that tracks from say Nola to overhead NYC is possible which in essence is the sane result ptype wise as a cutter I guess 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think you're getting any cutter from this but certainly something that tracks from say Nola to overhead NYC is possible which in essence is the sane result ptype wise as a cutter I guess 

I don't think this is going West of the mountains but I think a costal hugger or a track right overhead like you said is certainly within the range of possibilities. 

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GGEM has snow too

Yes, but it's nothing like the GFS.

[Allsnow]

Euro completely loss the storm…

 

 

[SBUWX23]

12z Euro is looking either delayed or nothing. Looks way different than 00z and any of the rain solutions of the CMC and UKMET

[Franklin0529]

No storm on the euro. Wtf is going on with these models lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

No storm on the euro. Wtf is going on with these models lol

The usual back and forth

[WestBabylonWeather]

I know it’s addicting

but

must wait till cutter passes to see how models handle it. 

[SBUWX23]

euro is just well offshore. The CMC is probably right though right? Lol, who knows whats gonna happen at this point.