Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[wdrag]

Attached are two 24 hour EPS graphics from the 12z/10 cycle that are significant for D6-7. The CMCE and GEFS are much less of snow risk for the northeast USA, so far. This thread is started because of the several consecutive cycles, although variable placement, EPS persistent snow threat for the I84 or I95 corridor, and it's possible snowfall outcome for NYC.  

Also is attached the 19z/10n Blend of Models from the NWS as a sketchy idea for I95. 

Reminders: The CMCE and GEFS are weak with the snow risk.  

Tags may be adjusted in a few days as it becomes clear whether our NYC subforum only gets a short period of snow/flurries in the wake of a strong windy cold frontal passage with single number-teens wind chill by Wednesday morning, or we realize a nice coastal wave of low pressure that produces hazardous wintry weather for the majority of the NYC subforum, then followed by a shot of the wind driven cold.  

This system is not as clear cut at D6-7 as previous storm threads in Dec-Jan, so uncertainty exists. 

[Typo on headline     Thread.    updated 854PM/10]

[Nibor]

This is the one. The one that ends the one inch drought. 

[stemwinder]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

This is the one. The one that ends the one inch drought. 

Yep.  Been wondering why no thread.  But here it is.  Snow - all of 2.1"  of it.  

[stemwinder]

Just now, stemwinder said:

Yep.  Been wondering why no thread.  But here it is.  Snow - all of 2.1"  of it.  

Thanks wdrag

[WestBabylonWeather]

i will take the 2" of snow

 

anything at this point

[MJO812]

Gfs has a better ridge out west and shortwave is more amped so far.

[NEG NAO]

best looking OP model solution at 0Z so far is the GEM - but 1 important ingredient is missing for a SECS - strong HP in southeast Canada also temps near the surface are too warm too support much accumulation in the metro

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

best looking OP model solution at 0Z so far is the GEM - but 1 important ingredient is missing for a SECS - strong HP in southeast Canada also temps near the surface are too warm too support much accumulation in the metro

It still gives us 3 to 5"

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It still gives us 3 to 5"

we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps

 

This airmass coming is alot colder 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It still gives us 3 to 5"

Yep trending more favorable 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps

 

The maps are fine if it's not a borderline situation but it's 5.5 days out regardless

[MJO812]

One thing for sure is that the cold is coming .

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This airmass coming is alot colder 

yes that is why the intensity and the timing of the heaviest precip is critical because the beginning hours of the precip don't look cold enough need a few hours of steady snowfall when the colder air arrives

 

[SnoSki14]

It's going to snow. Just wait til Friday's storm is out of the way. 

2 possible snow events likely before mild up followed by more threats in February.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to snow. Just wait til Friday's storm is out of the way. 

2 possible snow events likely before mild up followed by more threats in February.

Agreed. Upcoming pattern much better. Sick PNA ridge modeled on some of the globals for next week. I am optimistic 

[NEG NAO]

[Franklin0529]

Probably gonna have to wait until that Saturday storm clears out to get some clarity. Lots of moving parts 

[Stormlover74]

Cmc ensembles look good.

Cmc a few inches.

Gfs a dusting.

Ukie cutter.

Icon inch or two but warm at the coast

[NEG NAO]

0Z EURO snow start to finish moderate accumulations in the immediate NYC metro - heavier south NJ

[wdrag]

Good morning: one and done for me today on this event.  Here's how I'm melding what Ive seen. 

What is said below is only my take... 

Next Monday -Tuesday the 15th-16th: Virginia to NYS and northern New England. A period of light snow possible Monday with an inch or less ,if it occurs, especially Philly Baltimore. Then a widespread snow event with delays-cancellations sometime Tuesday. Note: this disagrees with the current NWS outlook and is much heavier than the NWS proposed outcome---so what I say is not a lock. It is what I think will occur but I could be too heavy. Thinking the primary snowfall of more than 4" lies probably just west of I95 but even the big cities from DC-NYC-BOS will probably see some sort of snow accumulation-just too early for the big cities with potential for an ice-snow mix near I95.  Modeling is showing consensus for an impact player. Axis unknown- this is my best guess. I use this for my own planning which means probably no work for me Monday-Wednesday next week because of MLK holiday and then snow covered  outdoor infrastructure and unsafe for me. Temps Monday-Wednesday probably do not exceed freezing or barely above freezing from just northwest of I95 to Canada so the ground will be frozen again making it easier to accumulate despite treatments.

[SBUWX23]

I feel like this could be a situation where jet dynamics come into play and allow for a more robust shield on the NW side as we get closer in time, but alot of time left before we even begin discussing that

[tristateweatherFB]

Should I even mention ratios? Haha

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Should I even mention ratios? Haha

Gfs looks great 

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS Benchmark Track 1/16 snow start to finish NYC metro

[Franklin0529]

Gfs is a 6-10" area wide. 

[NEG NAO]

and 12Z CMC is a rainstorm actually in this winter the rainstorm makes more sense IMO

[North and West]

Should I even mention ratios? Haha

sun angle


.

[vegan_edible]

cmc didn't do to well with a similar track last week so im gonna see what the euro has to say this afternoon and make my opinion there. fingers crossed this is the one

[uofmiami]

5 days out I’d be skeptical of all guidance. Let’s get this next storm out of the way and hopefully by 12Z Saturday runs there’s consensus as to what to expect for Tuesday.