Geoboy645 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The models have been in pretty good agreement for the last couple days that after the big storm on Friday and Saturday, we could get a legit cold wave for at least the early part of next week. Some runs have had temps as low as the -20s for overnight lows. And while it doesn't look like wind will be quite as big of a factor at this point compared to January 2019, WC's will still probably be within warning criteria as well. Whatever areas max out on snow from this weekend, especially if they maxed out on snow yesterday, could really get down in temperature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Yeah not looking forward to working in those conditions at all. Looking very impressive so far. Been consistent for over a week with signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Copying this over from the January thread... The cold air is on the move...you don't often see a Wind Chill Watch for 3+ days in length. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-101645- /O.NEW.KOAX.WC.Y.0001.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KOAX.WC.A.0001.240113T0000Z-240116T1800Z/ /O.CON.KOAX.WS.A.0002.240111T2100Z-240113T0000Z/ Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy- Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Pawnee- Including the cities of Blair, Wahoo, La Vista, Papillion, David City, Sterling, Fairbury, Table Rock, Beatrice, Yutan, Crete, Fremont, Columbus, Pawnee City, Bellevue, Ashland, Nebraska City, Lincoln, Wilber, Plattsmouth, Tecumseh, Milford, Seward, Omaha, and Schuyler 243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Nebraska. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight Thursday Night to noon CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Friday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact daily commutes Thursday and Friday. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 hoping for some sunshine. This is the most climatologically favored time of the year for this cold so not expecting any records 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I had mentioned this in another thread, but the 12z GFS has ORD below zero for 60 straight hours, and under freezing until at least 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I had mentioned this in another thread, but the 12z GFS has ORD below zero for 60 straight hours, and under freezing until at least 1/25. Would be the 4th longest streak of sub-zero on record (behind Dec 1983, Feb 1996, Jan 1982 and surpassing Jan 2019). And while this is likely overdone, 12z GEM at hour 96 has a pixel of -63F in south-central Alberta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, madwx said: hoping for some sunshine. This is the most climatologically favored time of the year for this cold so not expecting any records Yeah that's what I'm looking forward to as well considering I think we have maybe had 6-8hrs of sunshine since December 19th. But yeah this is basically right on schedule for our cold waves so there really won't be any records I don't think. It'd be nice to actually have a cold wave like this on January 15th though, feels like its been a while since we have had that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Pray for the palms. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 40 minutes ago, roardog said: Pray for the palms. The only positive thing from this is that they could be killed, and the crowd would rejoice Seriously though going from what we are now to this without snow would be pretty lousy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 If we don’t get a few inches of snow otg here there’s going to be issues with deep frost wrecking havoc on buried infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 At least the lack of snowcover will moderate temps somewhat here. Monday is looking frigid but still warm enough to work outside, company policy is air temp of -10F or below we stay inside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: At least the lack of snowcover will moderate temps somewhat here. Monday is looking frigid but still warm enough to work outside, company policy is air temp of -10F or below we stay inside. That would be the one benefit. I think my companies policy is 0F and below. Or if wind chill is -20F and below. My work tablet probably won’t work right on Tuesday with that cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, SolidIcewx said: That would be the one benefit. I think my companies policy is 0F and below. Or if wind chill is -20F and below. My work tablet probably won’t work right on Tuesday with that cold. I’ll have to double check but I believe our WC criteria is -30F. We were supposed to switch to tablets years ago but they are still sitting on my supervisors desk, honestly I prefer using paper, I can keep my gloves on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I had mentioned this in another thread, but the 12z GFS has ORD below zero for 60 straight hours, and under freezing until at least 1/25. The Euro is on board with that. The run ends below zero again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Yep, snap of bitter cold air. Min's on this chart should be about right. Winds should keep air mixed. If they go calm, daybreak temps plummet quick, but I don't think that'll be the case this time around with the forecast pressure gradient. Wind chills the big factor. A calm -30 is easier to deal with than -30 wind chill. Wind like a knife. Hurts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The cold is ending up even more impressive than originally thought. From NWS Great Falls, for posterity. Forecast low tonight in Cut Bank, MT is -43...the forecast was in the -30s earlier today. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 837 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Snow continues to fall across the state through tomorrow morning. Extreme cold temperatures settle in for the weekend along with dangerous wind chills. Cold temperatures linger into next week. && .UPDATE... With this evening`s forecast update, I lowered some of the overnight mountain temperatures a bit more than those included in our original forecast. Further, I increased relative humidity values, especially for southwest Montana. Only minor adjustments were made to wind speed/gusts values. No further updates are necessary, at this time. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 (12/00Z TAF Period) Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS. Winter weather impacts aviation during this 12/00Z TAF period, causing airfields to fall into MVFR/IFR/LIFR ranges, in snow and/or blowing snow or mist/freezing fog. Periods of gusty winds are forecast. Mountain obscuration continues for the duration of this TAF period. Dangerously cold temperatures impact aviation ops, with surface temperatures reaching as low as 35 below during this TAF period. - Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Rest of today through Friday morning...A surface low pressure is sliding to the southeast along the western MT/ID border. The arctic front is currently draped along the middle Gallatin County to southern Powell county corridor. Current radar shows widespread light snow across Western, Central, North Central MT. The snow should slowly push southward along the arctic during the afternoon and evening. Southwest Montana should begin to see widespread snow move in during the evening. Widespread snow will continue to fall across the CWA through tonight and into Friday morning. Snowfall across the lower elevations will remain on the lighter side. However, current radar and surface observations show that there can be some moderate snow banding at times. Since liquid precipitation is low and snow ratios are high, total snow accumulations remain low. Lower elevations are forecasted to see between 1-3" of snow. The heavier snow will fall along the lower Rocky Mountain Front and the Gates of the Mountains region where the Winter Storm Warning remains on track. As the arctic front pushes south overnight into Friday morning, widespread snow should begin to end north to south. Snow will push out of the mountains and southwest Montana late Friday morning and clear out by Friday afternoon. The main concern for the short term forecast this weekend is the extreme cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind chills. Temperatures will continue to steadily fall through Saturday morning. With winds sustaining between 15-20mph, dangerous wind chills are the main impact. The Wind Chill Warning comes into an effect this evening for Central and North Central Montana and Wind Chill advisories for Southwestern MT. Overnight lows Friday morning are expected to reach 20 to 35 below in Central and North Central MT. -Wilson Friday through Sunday...A highly anomalous H500 trough and associated Arctic airmass will bring dangerous, and potentially life threatening, cold temperatures and wind chills to all of North Central, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through the period. NAEFS return intervals for H850-700 temperatures are on the order of 30 years to even outside of the climatological range. ECMWF EFI values with respect to both high and low temperatures are in excess of 0.95 across all of Southwest through North Central Montana, with a shift of tails of 0 to 1 across most of the Northern Rockies. This all translates into a highly impactful cold outbreak through the period; with the potential for not only new record low minimum temperatures to be established at numerous climate site, but also new record low maximum temperatures. Overnight low temperatures, particularly from Friday night through Saturday morning, have a 30-60% chance of exceeding 40 degrees below zero across the Golden Triangle (i.e. between Cut Bank, Havre, and Great Falls). I would not be surprised if a couple of 50 degree below zero reports occur over this timeframe and overall location given the forecasted surface high of ~1045mb to 1050mb expected to slide south along the Canadian Rockies and over Northern Montana. Forecasted high temperatures over the timeframe are unlikely to exceed 10 degrees below zero north of the I-90 corridor, with overnight lows generally dipping into the 20 to 40 degree below zero range. I can not emphasis how dangerous it will be to be outside for anyone who is not dressed properly or becomes stranded while traveling. Wind chill values of 40 to nearly 70 degrees below zero are expected expected north of the I-90 corridor at times through Sunday, with the coldest wind chills expected to occur from this evening through Saturday morning. If you must travel, have an emergency kit for your vehicle and keep the gas tank as full as possible. Even short trips could become life threatening if your vehicle breaks down and you are unprepared. - Moldan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The cold is ending up even more impressive than originally thought. From NWS Great Falls, for posterity. Forecast low tonight in Cut Bank, MT is -43...the forecast was in the -30s earlier today.Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Great Falls MT837 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024.SYNOPSIS...Snow continues to fall across the state through tomorrow morning.Extreme cold temperatures settle in for the weekend along withdangerous wind chills. Cold temperatures linger into next week.&&.UPDATE...With this evening`s forecast update, I lowered some of theovernight mountain temperatures a bit more than those included inour original forecast. Further, I increased relative humidityvalues, especially for southwest Montana. Only minor adjustmentswere made to wind speed/gusts values. No further updates arenecessary, at this time.- Fogleman&&.AVIATION...624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 (12/00Z TAF Period)Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages thefollowing TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS.Winter weather impacts aviation during this 12/00Z TAF period,causing airfields to fall into MVFR/IFR/LIFR ranges, in snow and/orblowing snow or mist/freezing fog. Periods of gusty winds areforecast. Mountain obscuration continues for the duration of thisTAF period. Dangerously cold temperatures impact aviation ops, withsurface temperatures reaching as low as 35 below during this TAFperiod.- FoglemanRefer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weatherand hazard information.&&.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024/Rest of today through Friday morning...A surface low pressure issliding to the southeast along the western MT/ID border. Thearctic front is currently draped along the middle Gallatin Countyto southern Powell county corridor. Current radar shows widespreadlight snow across Western, Central, North Central MT. The snowshould slowly push southward along the arctic during theafternoon and evening. Southwest Montana should begin to seewidespread snow move in during the evening. Widespread snow willcontinue to fall across the CWA through tonight and into Fridaymorning. Snowfall across the lower elevations will remain on thelighter side. However, current radar and surface observations showthat there can be some moderate snow banding at times. Sinceliquid precipitation is low and snow ratios are high, total snowaccumulations remain low. Lower elevations are forecasted to seebetween 1-3" of snow. The heavier snow will fall along the lowerRocky Mountain Front and the Gates of the Mountains region wherethe Winter Storm Warning remains on track. As the arctic frontpushes south overnight into Friday morning, widespread snow shouldbegin to end north to south. Snow will push out of the mountainsand southwest Montana late Friday morning and clear out by Fridayafternoon.The main concern for the short term forecast this weekend is theextreme cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening windchills. Temperatures will continue to steadily fall through Saturdaymorning. With winds sustaining between 15-20mph, dangerous windchills are the main impact. The Wind Chill Warning comes into aneffect this evening for Central and North Central Montana and WindChill advisories for Southwestern MT. Overnight lows Friday morningare expected to reach 20 to 35 below in Central and North CentralMT. -WilsonFriday through Sunday...A highly anomalous H500 trough andassociated Arctic airmass will bring dangerous, and potentially lifethreatening, cold temperatures and wind chills to all of NorthCentral, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through theperiod. NAEFS return intervals for H850-700 temperatures are on theorder of 30 years to even outside of the climatological range. ECMWFEFI values with respect to both high and low temperatures are inexcess of 0.95 across all of Southwest through North CentralMontana, with a shift of tails of 0 to 1 across most of the NorthernRockies. This all translates into a highly impactful cold outbreakthrough the period; with the potential for not only new record lowminimum temperatures to be established at numerous climate site, butalso new record low maximum temperatures. Overnight lowtemperatures, particularly from Friday night through Saturdaymorning, have a 30-60% chance of exceeding 40 degrees below zeroacross the Golden Triangle (i.e. between Cut Bank, Havre, and GreatFalls). I would not be surprised if a couple of 50 degree below zeroreports occur over this timeframe and overall location given theforecasted surface high of ~1045mb to 1050mb expected to slide southalong the Canadian Rockies and over Northern Montana. Forecastedhigh temperatures over the timeframe are unlikely to exceed 10degrees below zero north of the I-90 corridor, with overnight lowsgenerally dipping into the 20 to 40 degree below zero range. I cannot emphasis how dangerous it will be to be outside for anyone whois not dressed properly or becomes stranded while traveling. Windchill values of 40 to nearly 70 degrees below zero are expectedexpected north of the I-90 corridor at times through Sunday, withthe coldest wind chills expected to occur from this evening throughSaturday morning. If you must travel, have an emergency kit for yourvehicle and keep the gas tank as full as possible. Even short tripscould become life threatening if your vehicle breaks down and youare unprepared. - MoldanIce fog levels of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Might be grasping at straws, but some good trends for the eastern sub if this continues. Could also just end up as a nor'easter and stop trending west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 hours ago, Chicago916 said: Might be grasping at straws, but some good trends for the eastern sub if this continues. Could also just end up as a nor'easter and stop trending west. Today's 06Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Cold is running well ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 gonna be a tightrope to get all my driveway/sidewalk clearing done before conditions become completely awful outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Forecast for Havre, MT. Current record low for January 13th is -35F set in 1997, which will be obliterated. Records go back to the late 1800s. All-time record low is -57F set on 1/27/1916. Normal for the date is 28/7. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -49. Wind chill values as low as -65. West southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Saturday Sunny and cold, with a high near -23. Wind chill values as low as -70. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -44. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 7 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -34. West wind 5 to 7 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny and cold, with a high near -7. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -23. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 53 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Forecast for Havre, MT. Current record low for January 13th is -35F set in 1997, which will be obliterated. Records go back to the late 1800s. All-time record low is -57F set on 1/27/1916. Normal for the date is 28/7. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -49. Wind chill values as low as -65. West southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Saturday Sunny and cold, with a high near -23. Wind chill values as low as -70. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -44. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 7 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -34. West wind 5 to 7 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny and cold, with a high near -7. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -23. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Wow, -70 wind chills? That'd be like -100 on the old wind chill calculation lol. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Is it just me, or does the intensity and duration of the cold seems to be easing back a bit in the models? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Fighting MJO warm phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This sucks already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 48 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Is it just me, or does the intensity and duration of the cold seems to be easing back a bit in the models? I attributed some of it to the lack of snow cover. Almost every deep cold event I can remember included a snowpack and not bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Wow, -70 wind chills? That'd be like -100 on the old wind chill calculation lol. Wow. Actually, the new scale is a bit colder for very light winds (>5 mph) and probably inflates the value to be honest. A wind of 4 or 5 mph at 10 meters is probably dead calm at ground level. It was only at winds greater 10 mph, and especially 20-30 mph, that the old scale really went off the rails. It does look like there were winds around 10-15 mph earlier in the night, with temps in the mid negative 30s, so peak wind chills on the old scale probably would have been like -80, maybe -85. Heres a good comparison: https://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/opinion/columns/safety-on-the-roads-by-dave-werner/2016/12/wind-chill-values-revised-in-2001/ You can see at -40 with 5 mph winds, under the old scale the chill would be -47 whereas it’s -57 under the new scale. The old was actually probably somewhat more realistic under light wind conditions. You can also see under the old scale, at -40, you would still need sustained winds of about 22 or 23 mph to reach around -100F chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 -13 tonight, -20 Mon morning, and -17 Tue morning here. Gonna be a brutal stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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