January 11-12 severe weather event

[DanLarsen34]

Wanted to get a thread up to discuss the upcoming two day severe weather event that looks set to unfold on Thursday and Friday.

 

Right now, the SPC has a slight risk in their first day two outlook for Thursday night into Friday morning. Similar to the event we just had on Monday night into Tuesday, we should see an overnight tornado and wind threat along the gulf, although areas further north could see a threat this time around.

 

The more substantial day, however, appears to be Friday. The SPC has already gone enhanced over AL, GA, SC, and a sliver of NC. In their discussion, there’s mention of the possibility of discrete, tornadic supercells across these states.

 

While the past two days were certainly active, this upcoming event could be more significant and bears watching.

 

 

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[purduewx80]

The moisture-laden warm sector looks fairly narrow on Friday, which may be limiting, while warming mid-level temperatures as the potent low moves north actually act to decrease instability compared to what is progged north of the warm front earlier in the day. I think elevated supercells may actually be likely in the warm air advection pattern midday into the southern Appalachians and Piedmont, which should present a very large hail risk given the extreme shear. Perhaps some of these will interact with the warm front in the afternoon. Shear vectors are more perpendicular to the pre-frontal trough/pseudo-dryline as compared to yesterday, so perhaps a few tornadic supercells can get going later in the day, as well. There certainly may be a better risk for surface-based storms closer to the Gulf Coast and eventually the East Coast given the proximity to better instability.

[Tyler Penland]

This SPC is very optimistic about that warm front progression. Surprised they have anyone North of i-20 in Georgia under a slight risk. NAM has dewpoints around Atlanta still in the low/mid-50s at 6pm tomorrow.

[Cheeznado]

This was a pretty bad bust, SPC did downgrade the risk late yesterday but so far not one tornado report, and nothing even severe currently after some wind damage the AM in Mississippi. All along the CAMs had few if any UH tracks, and the instability was very meager.