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1/13/24 Sultan Slicer #2 - Heavy rain, snow, wind?


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wind might get close here. Rain nowhere near the last one. Maine coast is the biggest issue. Down to Hampton too. I'm talking flooding. 

It's going to be messy right along the coast. Our DPW and PD have been putting the word out about expected road closures since yesterday morning.

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33 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Extremely Similar in location, amounts will in my opinion be 2/3 as much snow due to less QPF .

WPC and HREF are much tamer than Wednesday. 

WPC does not have 8”+ progs above 50% anywhere 

My guess is 6-9” in Conway and maybe 10 @ Wildcat 

Will be interested to see if Bretton woods avoids shadowing 

GYX always has some weenie colors on those maps with a more subdued discussion totals , they had 18-24 swath for Wednesday and the only place I saw verify was someone measured within 1-2 miles of Mt Wash summit but they nailed their forecast totals that they had out in the warning areas

It's also a little warmer this time around it seems. So places that were marginal last event will see less because of that and less QPF.  As always, good to be In and Up. 

Last event here was 6.8", definitely taking the under on that for tonight. 

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50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Extremely Similar in location, amounts will in my opinion be 2/3 as much snow due to less QPF .

WPC and HREF are much tamer than Wednesday. 

WPC does not have 8”+ progs above 50% anywhere 

My guess is 6-9” in Conway and maybe 10 @ Wildcat 

Will be interested to see if Bretton woods avoids shadowing 

GYX always has some weenie colors on those maps with a more subdued discussion totals , they had 18-24 swath for Wednesday and the only place I saw verify was someone measured within 1-2 miles of Mt Wash summit but they nailed their forecast totals that they had out in the warning areas

That's my thinking, especially after seeing WWA colors rather than the WSW for last Wed.  My area was in the 8-12 color then (final pre-storm forecast 6-10) and the 4-6 color this morning.  My 9" then was lower than places just to the west, where 10-14 was the rule.  Coastal flooding is the main threat this time, as astronomical tides are a foot higher tomorrow than last Wed.  Looking for 4-5", with the rain maybe half the 0.84" that made the Wed stuff all but immovable.

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This is trending windier than last system for mby but also more frozen and less warm sector. NAM keeps me frozen basically whole way through. 7” will get me to 2’ on the week, seems like outside shot of making it there. 

Other than the bs clean up on Wednesday not a bad stretch and more or less will catch me up to climo. 

Coastal flooding is concerning. Mainers are tough but the last 24 months has really tested our states emergency preparedness. 

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3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

An even better version and it's considered to be one of the greatest live performances of all time! 

 

I prefer the original with drummer Pick Withers, too much overplaying and sort of an unsteady feel there.  but Knopflers playing is great all over Alchemy 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Anybody looking at winds late Sunday morning and afternoon?

Definitely a window when winds go SW we could see some better mixing, especially south of the Pike and across E MA. That same window has 55-60F potential with lingering warmth aloft before the CAA starts cranking.

Winds could end up stronger on Sunday with deep mixing, but I guess that's really not for this thread. 

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5 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

CT knows how to jack rainfall .. unreal .. another 1.5 to 2.5" likley with iso 3 in the favored rainforests 

It's absolutely ridiculous. And the models seem to have no problem nailing it 5-days out. Yet if there's snow involved...models can't even get it right within 12 hours. We're a magnet for heavy rains but repel snows like we're the new Mid-Atlantic.

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4 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

This is trending windier than last system for mby but also more frozen and less warm sector. NAM keeps me frozen basically whole way through. 7” will get me to 2’ on the week, seems like outside shot of making it there. 

Other than the bs clean up on Wednesday not a bad stretch and more or less will catch me up to climo. 

Coastal flooding is concerning. Mainers are tough but the last 24 months has really tested our states emergency preparedness. 

I'm headed up to your by … is there much snowpack on the ground up there?

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

It’ll be interesting to see what it’s like at pit2.  

I wonder how high the water got on Dec 19 or 20, as the Kennebec peaked art 167k cfs, about halfway between the record (232k cfs in 4/1987) and 3rd place.

Dews have dropped considerably today, now in the mid-teens.  Might delay significant snow as the dry air gets overcome, but also might delay the changeover to RA.  I'm guessing 4-5" here plus 1/4-1/2" wet.

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k is basically no snow here. Another inch of water incoming. :stein:

yeah it’s certainly been dry. :stein:
Meanwhile, the mighty Merrimack is running really high, has been for weeks. another inch of rain plus snowmelt might cause some issues 

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5 minutes ago, klw said:

based on the shear massive number of cars heading north on 89, it is going to be a massive weekend at the Vermont ski resorts.

Certainly the highest volume of vehicles for the season, double solid lanes up 93 north through the lakes region. Winds are kicking up here and snow pack is rather solid.

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