WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Depressing that it looks like we might go another year without a HECS. We have to be closing in on the longest gap in between HECS that we have ever had. 83-96 was a long damn time 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Depressing that it looks like we might go another year without a HECS. We have to be closing in on the longest gap in between HECS that we have ever had. PDIII 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 83-96 was a long damn time 93? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Depressing that it looks like we might go another year without a HECS. We have to be closing in on the longest gap in between HECS that we have ever had.Wouldn’t be historic if we had them every year or even every two years. MECS / SECS are way more common than HECS+. There’s a reason it’s considered historic.Also, a week to reload the pattern / cold doesn’t have any impact on whether or not we see a HECS between early feb - march. I get being jaded from the past few years but man, you really do always look for the negatives. No model, especially a long range ensemble or the weeklies, is going to be able to tell you whether or not we see a HECS by winters end. The same exact models could show a HECS potential tomorrow. Wouldn’t worry so much about things that are several weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 30.5 at 3:30 26.5 at5:30 20.5 at 8:30 impressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Depressing that it looks like we might go another year without a HECS. We have to be closing in on the longest gap in between HECS that we have ever had. Dude its only jan 16th !! save the doom and gloom post till at least late February!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 83-96 was a long damn time 93 sorta counts. But yeah, that was a long stretch. But I was only 10 in 93 so….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wouldn’t be historic if we had them every year or even every two years. MECS / SECS are way more common than HECS+. There’s a reason it’s considered historic. Also, a week to reload the pattern / cold doesn’t have any impact on whether or not we see a HECS between early feb - march. I get being jaded from the past few years but man, you really do always look for the negatives. No model, especially a long range ensemble or the weeklies, is going to be able to tell you whether or not we see a HECS by winters end. The same exact models could show a HECS potential tomorrow. Wouldn’t worry so much about things that are several weeks out. I am not worried about a week or so relax. I am worried about the NAO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I am not worried about a week or so relax. I am worried about the NAO. When there’s a strong -NAO in the first half of a season (esp El Niño), it tends to return later. Happened in 2009-10 and many other such winters. I think a big storm is fair game for later this season. This isn’t 2010 or 1996, but it sure isn’t last year either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, anotherman said: 93? 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 93 sorta counts. But yeah, that was a long stretch. But I was only 10 in 93 so….. 93 was obviously a HECS, but not based on snow totals along I95 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, WxUSAF said: 93 was obviously a HECS, but not based on snow totals along I95 It was historic for the N/W areas and interior. Naso much for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 83-96 was a long damn time As was 66-79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 93 was obviously a HECS, but not based on snow totals along I95I grew up in the Philly suburbs and it had a huge impact there. Not 95, I know. But close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 93 was obviously a HECS, but not based on snow totals along I95 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: It was historic for the N/W areas and interior. Naso much for the coastal plain. Easily MECS level in the cities, and definitely historic and possibly an all timer in the interior. I can’t speak for it but those in the blue and white areas who are old enough to remember truly witnessed something exceptional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 33 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Depressing that it looks like we might go another year without a HECS. We have to be closing in on the longest gap in between HECS that we have ever had. And you can glean that from a weeklies or monthly model thru March? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 93 was obviously a HECS, but not based on snow totals along I95 Correct. We had something like 8 or 12 inches of snow followed by 5 inches of sleet that compacted it all down into a washboard of ice that stayed on the neighborhood streets for weeks. Was my daughter's 2nd birthday and we had relatives over for a party while the 'storm of the century" played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: PDIII That's one of the better honks from the super LR models of the entire season. The lower Atlantic side height tendencies have been adjusting N. That is right where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 24 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wouldn’t be historic if we had them every year or even every two years. MECS / SECS are way more common than HECS+. There’s a reason it’s considered historic. Also, a week to reload the pattern / cold doesn’t have any impact on whether or not we see a HECS between early feb - march. I get being jaded from the past few years but man, you really do always look for the negatives. No model, especially a long range ensemble or the weeklies, is going to be able to tell you whether or not we see a HECS by winters end. The same exact models could show a HECS potential tomorrow. Wouldn’t worry so much about things that are several weeks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: I grew up in the Philly suburbs and it had a huge impact there. Not 95, I know. But close. Grew up in SW Baltimore County. I remember 3 storms that closed school for a week: 2003 (my senior year of HS), 1996, and 1993. 1993 was close to my eighth birthday. I moved out to California and lived there for well over a decade, and missed the 2009-2010 winter, the 2016 winter...and arrived for our current dry spell. I haven't experienced a real storm in 21 years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I am not worried about a week or so relax. I am worried about the NAO.I’d take a look at bob’s posts from the past few weeks. The likelihood of having a big block in place the entire winter is quite low. I highly doubt we see the NAO flip positive and remain positive through end of winter. If anything, we likely see the block erode (neutral to slightly positive NAO) before reloading again by Valentine’s Day, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. It can still snow with a neutral or slightly positive NAO if you have some other factors working in your favor. You’re clearly big dog hunting (nothing wrong with that) and many of those have occurred when the block is decaying or the NAO is trending positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1747382801412816968?s=46&t=Qy0XCAzUjdru-Yl_ZvoBWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Clearly not that obvious since numerous people in this subforum obsess over HECS like they are supposed to hit us seasonally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, jayyy said: Clearly not that obvious since numerous people in this subforum obsess over HECS like they are supposed to hit us seasonally We've been spoiled with the big ones for a long time, especially from 1996 to 2016. When half of DC and Baltimore's top 10 snowstorms in the last 130 years were in that 20 year period, then you know it's been a golden age for the mid-Atlantic HECS. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, Fozz said: We've been spoiled with the big ones for a long time, especially from 1996 to 2016. When half of DC and Baltimore's top 10 snowstorms in the last 130 years were in that 20 year period, then you know it's been a golden age for the mid-Atlantic HECS. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall I don’t think that is a coincidence, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t think that is a coincidence, tbh. Global Colding. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Easily MECS level in the cities, and definitely historic and possibly an all timer in the interior. I can’t speak for it but those in the blue and white areas who are old enough to remember truly witnessed something exceptional. It is THE all timer along the Apps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 @Ji I see the troubling looks but something doesn’t jive. Even with a + nao the pac shown across guidance should be a cold look. Everything gets good around Feb 15. But the fate before is still uncertain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Long range GFS is a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Long range GFS is a mess I mean...weren't expecting anything next week anyway, were we? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is THE all timer along the Apps. I lived west of Winchester at a little over 1000 ft in elevation. Snow depth when it was over was 22-24 inches but that was with hours of sleet in the middle and 48 hours of compaction. Have to imagine snowfall was close to 30”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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