Kmlwx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We are a really streaky area for whatever reason. Long droughts followed by multiple condensed events is far more common than smooth evenly spaced winters. Prob magical thinking but imho, getting a nice event last night is a sign that Fri will work out "ok". My expectations are it will never look worse than 1-3 in general leading in and even though boom ingredients are largely absent, maybe it finds a way anyway just cuz. The Bob Chill magic is strong this winter 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We are a really streaky area for whatever reason. Long droughts followed by multiple condensed events is far more common than smooth evenly spaced winters. Prob magical thinking but imho, getting a nice event last night is a sign that Fri will work out "ok". My expectations are it will never look worse than 1-3 in general leading in and even though boom ingredients are largely absent, maybe it finds a way anyway just cuz. It's not rational on my part, but...had in mind that the area-wide hit yesterday/evening/overnite was really important to remind the atmosphere that we are here and that it can snow here too. Like, once it remembers that, it can do it again. Like I said, not rational, but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It's not rational on my part, but...had in mind that the area-wide hit yesterday/evening/overnite was really important to remind the atmosphere that we are here and that it can snow here too. Like, once it remembers that, it can do it again. Like I said, not rational, but... Train tracks are real. How and why and where they set up is beyond my abilities but they certainly happen all over the place. I never ignore my gut. I bust big like anyone but on the balance, my gut knows more than my conscious brain and I never ignore it. I'm feelin good for some snow on snow Friday. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Train tracks are real. How and why and where they set up is beyond my abilities but they certainly happen all over the place. I never ignore my gut. I bust big like anyone but on the balance, my gut knows more than my conscious brain and I never ignore it. I'm feelin good for some snow on snow Friday. 6z euro showed improvements at h5 with the vorticity location and also with its surface reflection. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Train tracks are real. How and why and where they set up is beyond my abilities but they certainly happen all over the place. I never ignore my gut. I bust big like anyone but on the balance, my gut knows more than my conscious brain and I never ignore it. I'm feelin good for some snow on snow Friday. I'm glad your gut is saying the same mine is (unless mine is just making noises). I've felt pretty good for that too...feels like something that could trend a little better on models as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Let's bring this one home folks. I'm greedy and ready for more. 18 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm glad your gut is saying the same mine is (unless mine is just making noises). I've felt pretty good for that too...feels like something that could trend a little better on models as we get closer. Pretty good consistency between the euro and gfs to target our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's bring this one home folks. I'm greedy and ready for more. Start a thread. Close it. And start another one. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Start a thread. Close it. And start another one. Don't give me any ideas. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NAM going east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: NAM going east this run. Preferred the outcome it had at 06z. toss. EPS mean is generally supportive of a 1-2" event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We are a really streaky area for whatever reason. It's always felt that way -- that higher probability misses and lower probability hits seems to string together way more often than you'd expect by chance. Winter 2013/2014 being the poster child for the phenomena. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Preferred the outcome it had at 06z. toss. EPS mean is generally supportive of a 1-2" event. I wouldn't toss it yet. It did kinda lead the way with yesterday. But it is 84 hours and we still have the rest of 12z models to see if they move that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I wouldn't toss it yet. It did kinda lead the way with yesterday. But it is 84 hours and we still have the rest of 12z models to see if they move that wayI can’t remember at what range the NAM had a clue. Looking back at the runs I saved to my phone it was doing well by 60 hours at least, though most guidance had it figured out by that point. The 84hr SREF run actually worked out well… lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I wouldn't toss it yet. It did kinda lead the way with yesterday. But it is 84 hours and we still have the rest of 12z models to see if they move that way I thought the 12z was a bit more consolidated around the Lakes and actually dug some more. I might be wrong, but if that had gone out about 6-12 more hours it may have looked halfway decent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 58 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's bring this one home folks. I'm greedy and ready for more. I'd like to see snow on the ground for the next 6 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON about to be good? LP in Kentucky at 66. Pummelled 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, clskinsfan said: ICON about to be good? LP in Kentucky at 66. Bring it home brother. We need snow on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON is nice. I'll take it in a skinny minute. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: ICON is nice. I'll take it in a skinny minute. I’d buy right now, no questions please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Icon is tasty AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Still snowing in northern MD here. Great run from the stingy ass ICON. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ICON is nice. I'll take it in a skinny minute. Quit fat-shaming minutes, would ya??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Still snowing in northern MD here. Great run from the stingy ass ICON. Don't want to be greedy, but... south trend? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON only spits out 4.2 here. I’m tossing in favor of a snowier model. Next up gfs and Canadian. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It's been so long since I needed salt a whole lowes bucket full was solid. ANd one I had in my house congealed into solid balls. Apparently there is a shelf life to these products. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Another 4 inches on top of the 4 inches already OTG? I take 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON only spits out 4.2 here. I’m tossing in favor of a snowier model. Next up gfs and Canadian. That surface representation is perfect for us out here. But it isnt a very vigorous vort. Seems to be how we win this winter though. The strong ones cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I'm sure there will be a post here shortly about 500 mb or 200 mb being off or something, but year if we treat this as a high end advisory level event then we'll be happy. It's snow on snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgentworth Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Another 4 inches on top of the 4 inches already OTG? I take The potential of the rare Snow on top of Snow event in Loudoun would be very much welcomed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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