jayyy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 That storm could trend warmer. Cold air will be cutoff, with NAO going + and -WPO retrograding NAO trending toward positive doesn’t mean we’ll have mixing issues. Maybe it happens, but it’s not the direct reason. We actually tend to do well at the tail end of a strong block when it begins to decay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Glancing over some of the LR ens and weeklies data, I'm really starting to think this is just an appetizer and next week will be a test in patience for all of us. Has that look of a wild home stretch very late Jan thru much of Feb. I could be wrong, but the ens and weeklies have done really decent overall in predicting the longwave scheme this season. Shrink those wavelengths between systems in Feb and we may very well be looking at a wild finish this year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: NAO trending toward positive doesn’t mean we’ll have mixing issues. Maybe it happens, but it’s not the direct reason. We actually tend to do well at the tail end of a strong block when it begins to decay Whole pattern is changing pretty fast at that point though. It looks like they want to reload the cold given by -WPO block. With the block retrograding and not reloading at that point though, it may not verify as cold as they currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 RGEM very similar to the NAM at the end of its run. Snow back into the area pre dawn Friday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Bigger flakes now under those yellows (decided to stay up a bit longer haha) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Terpeast said: Bigger flakes now under those yellows (decided to stay up a bit longer haha) Ya might need to get some sleep....wrong thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya might need to get some sleep....wrong thread He sees the future!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 That one's not going to overperform like this one did. It's really a matter of temps, when we are marginal we don't overperform.. it's pretty simple. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I miss the new old chuck 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Im ready to punch the gfs. So frustrating 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Im ready to punch the gfs. So frustrating Gem looks pretty good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gem looks pretty goodToday’s storm was kind of a win for the CMC, which never let go of the coastal idea that has come back. Maybe it’s on a heater 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Im ready to punch the gfs. So frustrating Then don't look at it. Just look outside your window and just stay in the present storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Then don't look at it. Just look outside your window and just stay in the present storm.I enjoy blue more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Im ready to punch the gfs. So frustrating It's not gonna come back. i'm so tired of this threat. It just hasn't showed any signs of getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not gonna come back. i'm so tired of this threat. It just hasn't showed any signs of getting there. So you aren’t interested in 2”?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This storm is what we thought it was. Ens guidance overall has been very consistent depicting late/ mostly offshore low development. Wildcard is the Norlun aspect, which we do so well at our latitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NBM has a signal for an inch or so. This has ticked up some over the last few runs. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3 deal. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro and 6z gfs both in the 1-2” range. GGEM more. Maybe we can juice this up a bit as we get toward game time like with this event. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and 6z gfs both in the 1-2” range. GGEM more. Maybe we can juice this up a bit as we get toward game time like with this event. Either way if a solid 1-2 is shown on guidance it’s still snow on snow! Also it’s during the highest impact time Friday which helps with canceling school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6Z EURO and still snowing lightly at end of run. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Either way if a solid 1-2 is shown on guidance it’s still snow on snow! Also it’s during the highest impact time Friday which helps with canceling school That's all I need to get out of town early....please just a few inches falling during morning commute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 6Z EURO and still snowing lightly at end of run. Wow beautifully striped again. Let’s go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and 6z gfs both in the 1-2” range. GGEM more. Maybe we can juice this up a bit as we get toward game time like with this event. 3-4 looks like max boom from what I'm seeing. Not sure there's enuff wiggle room for anything bigger. Good thing about the event is it will be instability driven moreso that lift/upglide. High ratio snow globe potential could bubble up as the upper level stuff moves overhead. If 12z globals all put down an inch or 2 today, we can prob bank on some amount of accum snow 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Surely the NAM will score another victory and give us more surprise WSWs! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3-4 looks like max boom from what I'm seeing. Not sure there's enuff wiggle room for anything bigger. Good thing about the event is it will be instability driven moreso that lift/upgrade. High ratio snow globe potential could bubble up as the upper level stuff moves overhead. If 12z globals all put down an inch or 2 today, we can prob bank on some amount of accum snow It always makes me feel better when YOU say something like this...but I will never be able to feel locked into snow here this many days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It always makes me feel better when YOU say something like this...but I will never be able to feel locked into snow here this many days out The upper level feature isn't a phantom. It's on all guidance in about the same place. The tricky part from what I see is the 850 low pass. For example, 6z euro has a decent vort pass: But the 850 low runs overhead. Boom scenario will likely be north of that. But for right now it's an overhead pass so much of our area isn't in the vigorous zone. 850 circ is parked right in the WV panhandle. Run that over EZF and we can get a little more excited. Right now, gun to head, 1-3" with some modest upside. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Is JB still tooting his horn about a blizzard?? Lol or did he finally come to his senses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just at a glance but looks like the gfs, icon, and euro all just made big moves with this. Not saying huge but Def looks more significant 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just at a glance but looks like the gfs, icon, and euro all just made big moves with this. Not saying huge but Def looks more significant We are a really streaky area for whatever reason. Long droughts followed by multiple condensed events is far more common than smooth evenly spaced winters. Prob magical thinking but imho, getting a nice event last night is a sign that Fri will work out "ok". My expectations are it will never look worse than 1-3 in general leading in and even though boom ingredients are largely absent, maybe it finds a way anyway just cuz. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now