stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Colder vs 0z with light stuff ongoing 7pm-10pm Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: H5 is better, but trof is just too broad The main SW is digging more...that is the MOST important thing IMO. It's a sloppy phase with the STJ and the lead wave runs off and its a mess and never recovers...but we can work on all that so long as we have more dig from the main SW. Without that nothing else matters. The thing is DOA. This solution while underwhelming leaves open the possibility for a better result. Yesterday it was heading the wrong way in that regard. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wrapping up at 6z Saturday....looks like basically a hold from 6/0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NAO was negative... people at the time called it "thread the needle" but the pattern was pretty good...just the thermals were marginal and "iffy" by those days standards anyways lol. Perfect track and amplification overcame the marginal temps. Then everyone complained when it melted right after because again...the airmass wasnt cold. Gotcha, thanks. The threading the needle part was on thermals, not NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1-2" area wide 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, stormtracker said: 1-2" area wide So Friday late afternoon into Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, understudyhero said: So Friday late afternoon into Saturday? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gotcha, thanks. The threading the needle part was on thermals, not NAO. yes...BTW I uploaded the wrong image and just fixed it LOL. The one I originally put was from Feb 2016. Ironically they look very similar which is why I didn't catch it right away. Which is funny because I've always held we underperformed in 2016 and that period in Feb is one reason why...but there was a perfect track rainstorm in Feb 2016, I got about 9" up here, and I think that was the one I posted first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NAO was negative... people at the time called it "thread the needle" but the pattern was pretty good...just the thermals were marginal and "iffy" by those days standards anyways lol. Perfect track and amplification overcame the marginal temps. Then everyone complained when it melted right after because again...the airmass wasnt cold. that was the storm that the JMA jumped on first...and its been history ever since! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 1-2" area wide ya thats not going to work for us 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ya thats not going to work for usYou should just stay in the panic room until we’re inside 3 days. Return then, Ji. It’ll be better for your sanity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Ji said: ya thats not going to work for us The good news is if you look at the mid and upper levels...we are in what would be the comma head and deform zone IF the low actually amplifies closer to the coast. This was a MUCH better setup for us to get a snowstorm than last nights runs. Problem was the initial wave kinda ran off and the phase was sloppy AF and it never came together...but we were in the perfect location to get into it had the storm phased cleaner. A lot of runs recently...even if it all came together we were going to be too far SW based on the mid and upper level progression. I liked this run a lot better for our prospects. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, jayyy said: You should just stay in the panic room until we’re inside 3 days. Return then, Ji. It’ll be better for our sanity. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The good news is if you look at the mid and upper levels...we are in what would be the comma head and deform zone IF the low actually amplifies closer to the coast. This was a MUCH better setup for us to get a snowstorm than last nights runs. Problem was the initial wave kinda ran off and the phase was sloppy AF and it never came together...but we were in the perfect location to get into it had the storm phased cleaner. A lot of runs recently...even if it all came together we were going to be too far SW based on the mid and upper level progression. I liked this run a lot better for our prospects. JB and you are on the same page https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1746963158198067411?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 These strong -WPO patterns usually flip. Here's the Jan 500mb regression correlation to WP-indexhttps://ibb.co/WKJnvb1 See how it reverses over Alaska the next month https://ibb.co/tCJW8KT That's what we are seeing on models.. it maxes out near +600dm Jan 17-19 https://ibb.co/L5Bz98K Then it flips over AK Jan 22-24 https://ibb.co/WDSGf8Q It could really get warm when that happens.. it also looks like the +NAO is pulling from the depths of the Atlantic tropics, as like 50% of the Hemisphere is above average Jan 25-27. Ensemble mean has the 576dm line in DC Jan 23-25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: These strong -WPO patterns usually flip. Here's the Jan 500mb regression correlation to WP-indexhttps://ibb.co/WKJnvb1 See how it reverses over Alaska the next month https://ibb.co/tCJW8KT That's what we are seeing on models.. it maxes out near +600dm Jan 17-19 https://ibb.co/L5Bz98K Then it flips over AK Jan 22-24 https://ibb.co/WDSGf8Q It could really get warm when that happens.. it also looks like the +NAO is pulling from the depths of the Atlantic tropics, as like 50% of the Hemisphere is above average Jan 25-27. Crap, the real Chuck is back. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, ravensrule said: Crap, the real Chuck is back. They could only hold him so long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Crap, the real Chuck is back. During our best week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 43 minutes ago, Ji said: JB and you are on the same page https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1746963158198067411?s=20 Nevermind, I must be wrong 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 21 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Crap, the real Chuck is back. I'm kinda glad. It was weird understanding his posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 something to keep an eye on Friday is the development of a coastal low (before its too late) I noticed the 24 precip total frames for the event have trended west a noticeable amount the past 2-3 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Well shit... guess we're all fucked (no I didn't edit it at all... go read the afternoon AFD from LWX just issued and you'll see it yourself) Precipitation chances overspread the area overnight Thursday into Friday as model guidance indicates an area of low pressure developing and travelling up the east coast. With high temperatures forecast in the low to mid 300s for most (teens and 20s at higher elevations), any precipitation will be snow. We will continue to monitor this event as it gets closer in time. As the aforementioned upper level trough pivots out of the area, upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface build over the area. Upslope snow showers continue through Saturday afternoon along and west of the Alleghenies with dry conditions expected elsewhere through Sunday. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term period with highs staying in the 20s for most. Those in metro areas or located near the Chesapeake Bay will get into the low 30s while higher elevations dip into the low teens. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well shit... guess we're all fucked (no I didn't edit it at all... go read the afternoon AFD from LWX just issued and you'll see it yourself) Precipitation chances overspread the area overnight Thursday into Friday as model guidance indicates an area of low pressure developing and travelling up the east coast. With high temperatures forecast in the low to mid 300s for most (teens and 20s at higher elevations), any precipitation will be snow. We will continue to monitor this event as it gets closer in time. As the aforementioned upper level trough pivots out of the area, upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface build over the area. Upslope snow showers continue through Saturday afternoon along and west of the Alleghenies with dry conditions expected elsewhere through Sunday. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term period with highs staying in the 20s for most. Those in metro areas or located near the Chesapeake Bay will get into the low 30s while higher elevations dip into the low teens. Shit. It was nice knowing y'all. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 New Euro gets DC up to 580dm Jan 23rd! 470'sdm over south Greenland, makes that a >100dm gradient/difference! CPC has the AO hitting +3 during that time. It doesn't look permanent though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: New Euro gets DC up to 580dm Jan 23rd! 470'sdm over south Greenland, makes that a >100dm gradient/difference! CPC has the AO hitting +3 I love you Chuck, but is it possible they give you back access to the PR/OT but revoke the weather discussion posting?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yeah, that's weird that I have to wear a label. Don't get it.. I should complain like zywts. It's a shame, I have a lot to offer OT lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Shit. It was nice knowing y'all. That’s nothing. I’ve been in the mid 400s before and it was child’s play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Can't believe I'm saying this, but H5 on 84 hour NAM is better than 12z Euro same time frame. I dunno 5 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I love you Chuck, but is it possible they give you back access to the PR/OT but revoke the weather discussion posting?. Only you would suggest "back access" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/11/2024 at 3:15 PM, WEATHER53 said: You can always bite me and/or use the ignore feature. It takes a maturity level that you lack to not lash out if your model babies get called ugly i dont believe I ever directed anything directly to you so your attack at me is immature and inappropriate. Also you are foolishly arrogant to pose as some sort of board spokesman . The ignore feature is yours. I will have no need to speak to you again. Models suck at predicting snow for around here. If you can’t deal with that then keep it to yourself. No no, by all mean, keep stomping your widdle feets and telling all the mets how bad their models are. Everyone loves it and wishes you would keep doing it, lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now