87storms Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The trough looks too far east..."for now", it has the look of a classic Miller B aka congrats Maine to Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Something like this is probably what we need. I don't see how it gets better than this. Need the energy embedded in the flow overtop the ridge to phase with TPV vorticity and sharpen and really dig. The PNA ridge axis is also a pretty important factor here. The southern stream is just meh. Has looked that way forever with this threat. No matter what it seems the tendency is for the low to form a bit late and strengthen offshore. Need it to pop to our south and not at our latitude to have a legit chance. Even that run was kinda meh. I went and looked at the individual members from the last few ensembles. I noticed something. The handful of members with a big 10”+ hit for DC there is a theme where it seems they run the NS wave way out ahead and wash it out then a stj wave develops behind that wave and phase with the trailing energy as the tail of the trough rotates down. Maybe the truth is there is no path with that NS SW we’re keying on now. If we want a big storm we need that to get out of the way so the energy rounding the tail of the trough can phase with thr stj? Dunno just an observation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 euro probs would have been better if it went out further btw, better angular momentum and pna 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ok, GFS time. Out west s/w is noticeable more diggy and sagging to the SW. Pacific ridging is better 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Positive changes. Better ridging out west, a bit more amp'd in front, but temper expectations. It doesn't have "the look". Well as of right now...subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snow looks to start around 3z-5z FRIDAY.. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 lol, we're in a gap at 105...like a snowhole over us..and the coastal is gonna take away the rest it seems. we might get skipped 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It's a screwjob. H5 got better. sfc got worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 to 3 for mt psu 0-0 for most of the subforum, with some accumulations to the SE in VA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, stormtracker said: It's a screwjob. H5 got better. sfc got worse Well over 100 hours away im sure alot will change lol just like it did for the storm on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Looks like an ink blot in a shrinks office lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a screwjob. H5 got better. sfc got worse I thought it was going to be better too. But classic DC split. We really needed a dominant stj wave to come along. If it’s all NS we’re fighting an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Canadian better. Still plenty of time for the details to get worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! Ban this poster 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Better do a “Jebman” shovel piles of snow tomorrow and Tuesday in case Friday goes to hell. That way everyone still has a lovely stockpile of white fluff in the back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Canadian better. Still plenty of time for the details to get worked out. Looks alot like the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Canadian better. Still plenty of time for the details to get worked out. We’ve learned the formula 1) start thread2) falls apart 3) start new thread 4) looks better 5) profit?? 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! MODS 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ban this poster The absolutely worst storm to bring up is March 01. This one is second. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! Why I oughta...... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If you guys think Boxing Day was bad, try growing up in the 80s and 90s. It seemed like every winter had at least one failed event, usually because of the mountains and/or temps. Models are way better now. That said, there were also a lot more surprises to cancel things out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: If you guys think Boxing Day was bad, try growing up in the 80s and 90s. It seemed like every winter had at least one failed event, usually because of the mountains and/or temps. Models are way better now. That said, there were also a lot more surprises to cancel things out. Geez, at least I had the "decency" to not explicitly spell the name out!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought it was going to be better too. But classic DC split. We really needed a dominant stj wave to come along. If it’s all NS we’re fighting an uphill battle. Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino? My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino? My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far. It hasn't been dormant at all actually, lol It's been very active: but slightly suppressed under the tpv that's been over us this month. When you look at model runs, look at the waves coming across the south. It's definitely there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 what do we need to do to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 JB going blizzard this weekend.....something about kennedy inaugural storm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 some small positive differences out west and with just a smidge more dig (science 101 here). but nothing meaningful appears to come from it. I'm tired of this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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