Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[psuhoffman]

It’s south. That’s the most important thing imo right now. We can root for a slight amp up trend later. I’d rather need that than need to get it south. 

[stormtracker]

1 to 3 for DC, just north 4-6...Central jersey...bastards

[stormtracker]

Fucking South/Central Jersey.  Fuck those guys.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Fucking South/Central Jersey.  Fuck those guys.

Lotta time to go Randy. Like I said earlier, they’ve done well on those types of looks. The storm AC got hit with maybe 2 years ago? That was a similar hit for them 

[coastal front]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Fucking South/Central Jersey.  Fuck those guys.

woahh as a south jersey resident I usually look at you guys as my home thread because for the most part my climo is more similar to dc rather then NYC and that Philly thread is dead. Good pbp!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-WPO blocks often retrograde and sometimes give way to big warmth.. a 500mb low creeps in under it. on Jan 23-24, the models are showing the 576dm line almost making it to DC. 

This is a really strong -EPO signal though for Jan 27-30+. +200dm over Alaska is what I like to see.. and +NAO makes it similar to the 13-14, 14-15 analogs. Here's -EPO correlation with temps in late January/ early February:

Temps: https://ibb.co/rmdQbNb

Precip
https://ibb.co/gJvCrng

+0.43(cold) and -0.12(precip) gives us +0.31 for net probability snowy pattern. This is when models build it Jan 27th on.. if they are accurate.  +NAO is +0.45(temps) and +0.35(precip).. so a net of -0.10 for probability snow pattern. The combined of the two indexes is +0.21 for Jan 27th on.. 

[snowfan]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Fucking South/Central Jersey.  Fuck those guys.

Excuse me sir, this is a fucking family channel. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Fucking South/Central Jersey.  Fuck those guys.

This kinda reminds me of Jan 05. That sucked because we fooled ourselves into expecting 1-2 feet a couple days out. But maybe if we know going in our ceiling is probably 2-6 south to north it won’t be as annoying. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This kinda reminds me of Jan 05. That sucked because we fooled ourselves into expecting 1-2 feet a couple days out. But maybe if we know going in our ceiling is probably 2-6 south to north it won’t be as annoying. 

Was that the cold smoke quick hitter where the roads caved immediately? I enjoyed that one. Got 5”. Don’t remember expecting that much more, but it was close. Philly was expecting up to 18”

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-WPO blocks often retrograde and sometimes give way to big warmth.. a 500mb low creeps in under it. on Jan 23-24, the models are showing the 576dm line almost making it to DC. 

This is a really strong -EPO signal though for Jan 27-30+. +200dm over Alaska is what I like to see.. and +NAO makes it similar to the 13-14, 14-15 analogs. Here's -EPO correlation with temps in late January/ early February:

Temps: https://ibb.co/rmdQbNb

Precip
https://ibb.co/gJvCrng

+0.43(cold) and -0.12(precip) gives us +0.31 for net probability snowy pattern. This is when models build it Jan 27th on.. if they are accurate.  +NAO is +0.45(temps) and +0.35(precip).. so a net of -0.10 for probability snow pattern. The combined of the two indexes is +0.21 for Jan 27th on.. 

thanks for clearing that up for us 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Was that the cold smoke quick hitter where the roads caved immediately? I enjoyed that one. Got 5”. Don’t remember expecting that much more, but it was close. Philly was expecting up to 18”

Yea I think so. A few days out models had some 20” runs for DC. Then it became more NS dominant. Guidance is picking up on that now instead of teasing us with some early stj dominant solutions. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

thanks for clearing that up for us 

Most people don't know that -EPO and +NAO is a snowy pattern.. you don't think 13-14 and 14-15 will ever happen again, but I disagree. I think they are lightly correlating. 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, coastal front said:

woahh as a south jersey resident I usually look at you guys as my home thread because for the most part my climo is more similar to dc rather then NYC and that Philly thread is dead. Good pbp!

Why in the Philly thread dead?

[87storms]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-WPO blocks often retrograde and sometimes give way to big warmth.. a 500mb low creeps in under it. on Jan 23-24, the models are showing the 576dm line almost making it to DC. 

This is a really strong -EPO signal though for Jan 27-30+. +200dm over Alaska is what I like to see.. and +NAO makes it similar to the 13-14, 14-15 analogs. Here's -EPO correlation with temps in late January/ early February:

Temps: https://ibb.co/rmdQbNb

Precip
https://ibb.co/gJvCrng

+0.43(cold) and -0.12(precip) gives us +0.31 for net probability snowy pattern. This is when models build it Jan 27th on.. if they are accurate. 

I don't think you can use correlation to get a probability.  The 0.12 is also a pretty low correlation/dependency, though 0.43 is a decent signal implying a better chance for frozen vs liquid, if true.

[stormtracker]

25 minutes ago, coastal front said:

woahh as a south jersey resident I usually look at you guys as my home thread because for the most part my climo is more similar to dc rather then NYC and that Philly thread is dead. Good pbp!

I’m mostly  kidding. I’m jealous 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Most people don't know that -EPO and +NAO is a snowy pattern.. you don't think 13-14 and 14-15 will ever happen again, but I disagree. I think they are lightly correlating. 

Why aren’t there more examples of those patterns leading to 30”+ winters here than? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why aren’t there more examples of those patterns leading to 30”+ winters here than? 

EPO and WPO patterns don't last that long.. On average their oscillations last 7-12 days. The NAO or PNA will go for 15-35 days, but it's hard to get a sustained EPO.. it fluctuates back and forth a lot, giving you not as constant winter-means. 

[The Dude]

47 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Should have posted this earlier, but the ECMWF ML FuXi model ("Foo-chi") is pretty optimistic for the Friday system as well. All totaled, at least ~10mm total, perhaps more since we don't really see the full resolution. That's like 0.4"-ish. Not bad. 

It should be noted that the FuXi was consistent in having 0.15-0.30" with the Mon-Tue system, which appears pretty reasonable now.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401140000&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401150000

It makes sense that the FU model would be the most accurate for our area...

[stormtracker]

ooook, 72 hours..some changes out west...s/w coming ashore is a bit stronger and further SE

[psuhoffman]

It needs to amp up quick but everything’s coming in further south this run. So if it can crank at all it could be good. 

[psuhoffman]

There seems to be less stj interaction though. Don’t love that. But the NS SW was a bit south. I do like that. Next frames will determine. 

[psuhoffman]

Nope. NS SW came across as a better latitude for us but the whole thing was more suppressed. No stj interaction and the coastal took too long to get going. It’s not a good run for anyone. Light snow across MD and NJ. 

[psuhoffman]

NJ gets some inv trough action then the coastal gets going just in time to scrape cape cod. 

[psuhoffman]

could have been a better run if it had the same stj interaction as the last few. But it lost that completely and that offset what were some improvements in the NS piece. 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope. NS SW came across as a better latitude for us but the whole thing was more suppressed. No stj interaction and the coastal took too long to get going. It’s not a good run for anyone. Light snow across MD and NJ. 

I'm glad it's still 5 days out things will change.. just like they changed in our favor for the 16th Event

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWxI’ve noticed the last 24 hours the runs that are more suppressive with the TPV get the NS track we need but the wave ends up more suppressed with almost no STJ interaction. The less suppressive runs have a bigger storm but the NS wave comes across further north and so it’s mostly a Philly northeast storm.
 

So what’s the path for us?  What do we root for?  My gut says more suppressive flow combined with stronger SW. But those runs seem to have less STJ and so it’s not much better.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Did the EPS show any interest in Friday?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @WxUSAF I’ve noticed the last 24 hours the runs that are more suppressive with the TPV get the NS track we need but the wave ends up more suppressed with almost no STJ interaction. The less suppressive runs have a bigger storm but the NS wave comes across further north and so it’s mostly a Philly northeast storm.
 

So what’s the path for us?  What do we root for?  My gut says more suppressive flow combined with stronger SW. But those runs seem to have less STJ and so it’s not much better.  

Something like this is probably what we need. I don't see how it gets better than this. Need the energy embedded in the flow overtop the ridge to phase with TPV vorticity and sharpen and really dig. The PNA ridge axis is also a pretty important factor here. The southern stream is just meh. Has looked that way forever with this threat. No matter what it seems the tendency is for the low to form a bit late and strengthen offshore. Need it to pop to our south and not at our latitude to have a legit chance.

[MillvilleWx]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWxI’ve noticed the last 24 hours the runs that are more suppressive with the TPV get the NS track we need but the wave ends up more suppressed with almost no STJ interaction. The less suppressive runs have a bigger storm but the NS wave comes across further north and so it’s mostly a Philly northeast storm.
 

So what’s the path for us?  What do we root for?  My gut says more suppressive flow combined with stronger SW. But those runs seem to have less STJ and so it’s not much better.  

I have not paid much attention to this setup because I’ve been focused with the short term threat, so I will differ to the others. @CAPE has a great breakdown and I agree on his analysis. This setup is the precursor to the next one, so we have a bit of a ways to go. By Tuesday, we’ll have a better handle.