psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6z euro control improved 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z euro control improved LFG. 2 to 4 on Tuesday. 3 to 5 on Friday. Than a HECS in February. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just for fun: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 325 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 325 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in the most persistent lake snows, with storm totals 1 to 2 feet. Local amounts of 2 to 3 feet possible across the Buffalo southtowns, where bands will persist the longest. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph, with near blizzard conditions at times today.My friend shared this this morning from Hamburg NY. Absolute blizzard out there with 3-4” per hour rates 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 OT; I work with a guy that grew up just N of Buffalo. He told me once he drove to the southtowns and went from dry ground to over a foot and heavy snow in just a few miles. Did his errand and went back home to partly sunny and dry ground. That's bats!All. The. Damn. Time. The main campus for university at buffalo is in Amherst, which is a north town. They’d get 3-6” sometimes more on the northern edge of band. Or there’d be times we’d get zero and 5 miles south near south campus in buffalo would have 18”. It goes from blizzard conditions to sunny conditions outside those bands. It’s incredible. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 There is a model war going on between the gefs and eps for Feb 1-15. Both end up the same place the second half of Feb but the eps says Feb 1-15 is workable. Not great but decent. Gefs is a shit the blinds look Feb1-15. Another “odd” thing is despite the great looking pattern on the eps the snow means remain low. Below avg even for after this next 10 days! I’ve been looking at the control runs the last 5 days to try to see why. They have matched the mean h5 look so that was helpful. For whatever reason the storm track was just to our northwest every time a significant wave came along despite what was otherwise a great pattern. Aleutian low. Epo ridge. -nao. Lower heights in the Atlantic. Storm track was either suppressed (I don’t mean snow south of us I mean the waves get washed out) or if amplified to our north. This isn’t a one day thing it’s been a consistent theme for a week. I don’t make too much of those long range snow means but I’d prefer they match the pattern. It’s odd with a h5 that says the mid atlantic should be the target the models still are saying it’s the upper Midwest to northern New England. Maybe others have a theory why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a model war going on between the gefs and eps for Feb 1-15. Both end up the same place the second half of Feb but the eps says Feb 1-15 is workable. Not great but decent. Gefs is a shit the blinds look Feb1-15. Another “odd” thing is despite the great looking pattern on the eps the snow means remain low. Below avg even for after this next 10 days! I’ve been looking at the control runs the last 5 days to try to see why. They have matched the mean h5 look so that was helpful. For whatever reason the storm track was just to our northwest every time a significant wave came along despite what was otherwise a great pattern. Aleutian low. Epo ridge. -nao. Lower heights in the Atlantic. Storm track was either suppressed (I don’t mean snow south of us I mean the waves get in washed out) or if amplified to our north. This isn’t a one day thing it’s been a consistent theme for a week. I don’t make too much of those long range snow means but I’d prefer they march the pattern. It’s odd with a h5 that says the mid atlantic should be the target the models still are saying it’s the upper Mideast to northern New England. Maybe others have a theory why. I think someone pointed out (maybe it was you?) that EPS has been doing much better in the long range than gefs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a model war going on between the gefs and eps for Feb 1-15. Both end up the same place the second half of Feb but the eps says Feb 1-15 is workable. Not great but decent. Gefs is a shit the blinds look Feb1-15. Another “odd” thing is despite the great looking pattern on the eps the snow means remain low. Below avg even for after this next 10 days! I’ve been looking at the control runs the last 5 days to try to see why. They have matched the mean h5 look so that was helpful. For whatever reason the storm track was just to our northwest every time a significant wave came along despite what was otherwise a great pattern. Aleutian low. Epo ridge. -nao. Lower heights in the Atlantic. Storm track was either suppressed (I don’t mean snow south of us I mean the waves get in washed out) or if amplified to our north. This isn’t a one day thing it’s been a consistent theme for a week. I don’t make too much of those long range snow means but I’d prefer they march the pattern. It’s odd with a h5 that says the mid atlantic should be the target the models still are saying it’s the upper Mideast to northern New England. Maybe others have a theory why. I hope the EPS is a lot more than workable during the first 15 days of February. That’s when we need the mint pattern to crush us. Haven’t had many big storms later than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 How big was feb 2003? I moved here the 22nd, drove in driving rain from Dallas to the va border where it turned to snow. I know the government did a two hour delay o/a 24 feb. I’ve got a picture of the car sometime after that “for the folks back in Texas.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z GFS time, what’s our bar for today? Area wide 3-5” pleaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 on the gfs, s/w out west is less diggy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I forgot this is nrn stream dominant so the s/w back west isn't the focus. Anyway, the egg thingy up north over eastern Canada is less pressing. You can't get this kinda analysis anywhere else folks 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: on the gfs, s/w out west is less diggy Yeah I don't like where this run is through 78h with that energy out west. Less amped and further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah I don't like where this run is through 78h with that energy out west. Less amped and further N. I can't characterize it yet. I'm gonna wait and see what the nrn stream does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 There are differences in the nrn stream...s/w seems stretched further west/back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I can't characterize it yet. I'm gonna wait and see what the nrn stream does Thoughts about h5 at 102? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 precip over the area at 12z Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 not bad, but not as good as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Thoughts about h5 at 102? 114 has me interested Randall. Some nice QPF gathering down south, 1014 at FL/AL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 snow still going at 18z Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: 114 has me interested Randall. Some nice QPF gathering down south, 1014 at FL/AL border. Low develops on NC coast but goes NE away from the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: snow still going at 18z Friday Looks more like 0z at h5, agree with your reference to 6z (was dug in better for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Def some coast enhancement tho from 126-132 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I don't hate this look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 precip start at 7am Friday and about to end at around 3-4z Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Chris78 said: I don't hate this look. Nobody should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Def some coast enhancement tho from 126-132 If she was just a bit more negatively titled, we'd be in business. Gets enhanced in areas like an inv trough would. We're in the ballgame, this run didn't change much. Just gotta get it a little deeper. Definitely some potential and bigger upside of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Disappointing how do we get a better dig 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Central Southern Jersey get destroyed. It just gets going too late for us. A general 2 to 4 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Ji said: Disappointing how do we get a better dig Maybe this run will stay the exact same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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