stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 this one is a paltry 1-3". but I mean...we got plenty of time and we all know this is gonna change 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: You didn't tell us you just moved here. Welcome man. 6 long years here but I memory purge to cope I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I just wanna hear… Folks! I wanna say it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I wanna say it I know everyone wants the big one but after what we been through lately I’ll take 1-3” lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs is close again but need digging like 12z to get it done Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Agreed, WB 6Z GFS (snow is for the week) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed, WB 6Z GFS (snow is for the week) If we believe in the NW shift that’s a pretty sweet spot to be in at this point no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Duca892 said: If we believe in the NW shift that’s a pretty sweet spot to be in at this point no? Let's watch the EURO today.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If we believe in the NW shift that’s a pretty sweet spot to be in at this point no?This isn't a nw shift thing. We need the sw to dig more south and west and be allowed room to amplify before its too lateSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 0z EPS still implies surface low development a bit too far north and late for our latitude, but notable improvement on the mean. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 6Z GEFS, think we need the trough to take on a more negative tilt for it to work. Not sure if that is possible.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 35 minutes ago, frd said: Currently more a low lands threat, do you agree? It's more a case of being further east/NE, esp with the Euro/EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Check out this forecast for Buffalo,Ny!! I think im gonna move there!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Check out this forecast for Buffalo,Ny!! I think im gonna move there!!!! You might think that but if you do don't give up your summer house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, BristowWx said: You might think that but if you do don't give up your summer house. I'm more interested in the Miller B on the 19th somehow impacting our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GEFS continues to advertise a favorable Pacific look in the LR. Long way out but there is a signal for a storm involving southern stream energy in the flow under the western ridge. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I feel it this time. Just not sure what the feeling is. Lol Morning all. Just reading. Bring this one home. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GEFS continues to advertise a favorable Pacific look in the LR. Long way out but there is a signal for a storm involving southern stream energy in the flow under the western ridge. Looks maybe as if the warm up will be brief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm more interested in the Miller B on the 19th somehow impacting our region. You serious Clark? Miller B…the B stands for ball buster. IDK if I have the chops to pursue that scenario. I’m getting old and impatient. I should move to Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You serious Clark? Miller B…the B stands for ball buster. IDK if I have the chops to pursue that scenario. I’m getting old and impatient. I should move to Buffalo! My advice is to stop labeling potential storms Miller A, B, Z whatever. It's an oversimplification(and plain wrong in many cases) and some here seem to have an actual phobia of MILLER B. Not useful in the synoptic discussion. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 You serious Clark? Miller B…the B stands for ball buster. IDK if I have the chops to pursue that scenario. I’m getting old and impatient. I should move to Buffalo!At least you know you’d always have lake effect. I graduated from the university of buffalo and it’s honestly like nothing else. 2-4” of snow per hour, sometimes higher - thunder snow at times from these bands and insane winds. That band is easily 3-4” per hour. And they have another SW wind driven LES event comes Tuesday - Wednesday which is typically a long-fetch high impact event. The best place to move around there is the southtowns. Orchard Park where the Bills play is a prime spot down to around Fredonia. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just for fun: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 325 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 325 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in the most persistent lake snows, with storm totals 1 to 2 feet. Local amounts of 2 to 3 feet possible across the Buffalo southtowns, where bands will persist the longest. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph, with near blizzard conditions at times today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 These squalls are intense 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 OT; I work with a guy that grew up just N of Buffalo. He told me once he drove to the southtowns and went from dry ground to over a foot and heavy snow in just a few miles. Did his errand and went back home to partly sunny and dry ground. That's bats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 36 minutes ago, jayyy said: At least you know you’d always have lake effect. I graduated from the university of buffalo and it’s honestly like nothing else. 2-4” of snow per hour, sometimes higher - thunder snow at times from these bands and insane winds. That band is easily 3-4” per hour. And they have another SW wind driven LES event comes Tuesday - Wednesday which is typically a long-fetch high impact event. The best place to move around there is the southtowns. Orchard Park where the Bills play is a prime spot down to around Fredonia. Having grown up in northeast Ohio, I completely agree with you! There is really nothing else like a major lake effect event when they hammer you. I've experienced those 2-4" bands (or more!) and whiteout conditions, as well as thunder-snow. Northeast Ohio doesn't get as much as Buffalo, simply because Buffalo gets a much longer fetch off Lake Erie (so they'll be in those bands more or less for hours, even days!), but still. We'd occasionally get some added bands off Lake Huron if the wind direction was right. It's really cool!!! Also, lake effect nearly always provided "extra" snow on top of synoptic events at the end, and would give you snow even after rain once it got cold and the winds shifted behind a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said: OT; I work with a guy that grew up just N of Buffalo. He told me once he drove to the southtowns and went from dry ground to over a foot and heavy snow in just a few miles. Did his errand and went back home to partly sunny and dry ground. That's bats! Yup...you can get crazy snow gradients from those events. You can go from mostly clear and wet roads to a blizzard in almost no time. I recall seeing cars come in from the "main" snowbelt of NE Ohio with a several inch or so slab of snow on the roof when all the vehicles around them were dry (I think they left it there to "show off!" LOL!!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: You might think that but if you do don't give up your summer house. I wont lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 About 0 vis Elder hill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: OT; I work with a guy that grew up just N of Buffalo. He told me once he drove to the southtowns and went from dry ground to over a foot and heavy snow in just a few miles. Did his errand and went back home to partly sunny and dry ground. That's bats! Lake effect is the best. If you set up under one of the bands it's just nonstop dumpage, you don't have to worry about any other setup type bullshit that we have to stress about down here. As long as you're downwind...it's all good. I prefer the keewenaw peninsula because it just sticks out into lake Superior and gets blasted. If my wife ever divorces me I think that's where I'll retreat to. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: You serious Clark? Miller B…the B stands for ball buster. IDK if I have the chops to pursue that scenario. I’m getting old and impatient. I should move to Buffalo! If we score 6-8 inches from a Miller B,C, or Q, it's like taking it to the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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