Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Exactly. I said I didn’t like that feature before this pattern started. Wish I had been wrong about that! So that's an example of just a bad luck thing, right? You'd think we'd be solidly on the board right now if it wasn't there! (Of course we could get on the board if Tues-Wed can squeeze out an inch...but you know what I mean) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t think its can kicking per say but I see some slightly troubling trends for early Feb. EPS 10 days ago eps now the major features are the same. But the eps has been delaying the -nao from redeveloping. That isn’t shocking that’s really hard for guidance to get right. Unfortunately that will be huge once the pac jet extends again. There will be a brief period late Jan as the pac jet starts to extend that the configuration is perfect and we don’t need any nao help to get cold. But early Feb the pac trough gets slightly east of perfect again. Not bad. Very common for a Nino. But we need some blocking help to stop the warmer air being injected there from spreading east and taking over. It’s still not a bad look at all. We would get chances. But the new look has more thermal issues than the look 10 days ago. If you want to be an optimist the eps is trending even better for the period Feb 10-25 though. It went from good to OMG how can it not snow in that. And I know we’re all super impatient now justifiably so but Mid Feb to early March is not too late. 2014, 2015, 2018 our best snow was after Feb 10 all those years! And two of them we remember very fondly! Personally since I’m out of the area from Feb 3-10 I’m ok with the timing. lol. I’ll duck and cover now… Seems like some potential can-kicking. It’s getting late, early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thing is it saved us in 2010. Could be that we get surprised by a couple of chances over the next 2 or 3 weeks. Huh? look at Feb 2010. The NS is out of the way. There is no vortex there. The STJ wave in TX is alone to do its thing. There is a monster block locking a 50/50 in but the flow across Canada is just flat and out of the damn way! That’s what I like. Just get out of the STJs way. Give a stj wave room to amplify on its own without needing any NS interaction at all! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So that's an example of just a bad luck thing, right? You'd think we'd be solidly on the board right now if it wasn't there! (Of course we could get on the board if Tues-Wed can squeeze out an inch...but you know what I mean) I answered you in the panic room. Keep questions about you know what there. I’m tired of getting yelled at for talking about it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems like some potential can-kicking. It’s getting late, early. It’s a relatively minor change so I don’t know. Let’s see how Feb 10 on trends. Fact is the -nao signal for Feb 1-10 was weak and it just ended up neutral. That’s a minor change but has a significant impact on our precarious snow chances lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Speaking of.. the latest edition is a damn near perfect h5 depiction. It has been very consistent with this look overall for the back half of winter. -NAO develops earlier but this period is where the pattern really becomes mature. Hard to see on this view but that is a west based -NAO. We should have multiple chances with that long wave pattern if it verifies. Way better than last winter when we were already tracking cherry blossoms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Huh? look at Feb 2010. The NS is out of the way. There is no vortex there. The STJ wave in TX is alone to do its thing. There is a monster block locking a 50/50 in but the flow across Canada is just flat and out of the damn way! That’s what I like. Just get out of the STJs way. Give a stj wave room to amplify on its own without needing any NS interaction at all! Thanks. So basically we need it further east? I just was going off memory and I remember the PV acting as a block and sliding vorts under us. But again you are much better at this stuff than I am. I am a weenie always trying to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thanks. So basically we need it further east? I just was going off memory and I remember the PV acting as a block and sliding vorts under us. But again you are much better at this stuff than I am. I am a weenie always trying to get better. Sorry my aggressive posts are directed at the snow gods not you or anyone else. Yes. Remember when I kept saying we need it to get to 50/50 over and over. I eventually stopped because it just wasn't going to happen and it was redundant. But let me illustrate why that is the magic spot for us... So picture the flow here around the 50/50...It keeps the flow out of the NW to our northeast providing the cold air but also "blocking" any wave coming along from cutting up to our west...but it also is out of the way enough to give space to any wave coming from the west to amplify. Look at the blue circle...the northern stream is out of the way pulled to our northeast where we want it. Something rotating around the 50/50 there usually just acts to prevent a cutter unless the 50/50 is too far SW OR a really strong vort comes along at the exact wrong time then yea we can squash something...but its way less an issue. SO we have a HUGE win zone...any STJ wave that comes along and tries to track northeast west of us will be forced to turn east or transfer to the coast into the box we need, black circle. Our path to a win is simple...get an STJ wave to come alone, with the NS way out of the way and room to amplify and try to turn north...get stopped in its tracks by the NS where we want it...and turn east under us. Boom But now look at the scenario with a TPV over top of us... Look at where the northern stream is directed now...right into the area we want a storm to amplify. So now...it almost guarantees some NS wave is going to be diving down on top of the STJ where we need a storm to develop. So to get a storm now we need one of those NS vorts (x's) to dig deep enough and play nice and phase with the STJ, and also we need it not to happen to soon and cut up west and not too late to go OTS and if the NS waves dont dig enough everything ends up north of us or if they don't phase nothing happens at all! It's a way more complicated setup and we don't ever seem to do complicated anymore! This can work. It has worked. 1966 and 1987 were analogs where this exact pattern worked. But... I don't think its as easy as it once was because the jet is shifted north and the NS just doesn't dig as much as it used to which is a problem in this specific scenario. Hope this helps... 5 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'm always confused as to the orientation needed to phase NS and SS vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Thanks PSU. Helps a lot brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry my aggressive posts are directed at the snow gods not you or anyone else. Yes. Remember when I kept saying we need it to get to 50/50 over and over. I eventually stopped because it just wasn't going to happen and it was redundant. But let me illustrate why that is the magic spot for us... So picture the flow here around the 50/50...It keeps the flow out of the NW to our northeast providing the cold air but also "blocking" any wave coming along from cutting up to our west...but it also is out of the way enough to give space to any wave coming from the west to amplify. Look at the blue circle...the northern stream is out of the way pulled to our northeast where we want it. Something rotating around the 50/50 there usually just acts to prevent a cutter unless the 50/50 is too far SW OR a really strong vort comes along at the exact wrong time then yea we can squash something...but its way less an issue. SO we have a HUGE win zone...any STJ wave that comes along and tries to track northeast west of us will be forced to turn east or transfer to the coast into the box we need, black circle. Our path to a win is simple...get an STJ wave to come alone, with the NS way out of the way and room to amplify and try to turn north...get stopped in its tracks by the NS where we want it...and turn east under us. Boom But now look at the scenario with a TPV over top of us... Look at where the northern stream is directed now...right into the area we want a storm to amplify. So now...it almost guarantees some NS wave is going to be diving down on top of the STJ where we need a storm to develop. So to get a storm now we need one of those NS vorts (x's) to dig deep enough and play nice and phase with the STJ, and also we need it not to happen to soon and cut up west and not too late to go OTS and if the NS waves dont dig enough everything ends up north of us or if they don't phase nothing happens at all! It's a way more complicated setup and we don't ever seem to do complicated anymore! This can work. It has worked. 1966 and 1987 were analogs where this exact pattern worked. But... I don't think its as easy as it once was because the jet is shifted north and the NS just doesn't dig as much as it used to which is a problem in this specific scenario. Hope this helps... As always bro, very nice read!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 18Z EPS looked better for Friday... 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I won’t lie the lack of a healthy stj wave is hurting our chances a lot. But I do give this setup more of a chance than a typical NS miller b. If you remember when I explained how Feb 10, 2010 worked out…this has a similar flow going for it. as the NS SW enters the pac NW there is a wall in the flow ahead of it. It’s going to have to dive southeast and end to near X. Both feature move east in unison. If the wave can survive the shred factory flow in the Midwest and get to us intact as the tpv finally gets out if the way and the trough amplifies along the east coast it could develop in time. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Sorry my aggressive posts are directed at the snow gods not you or anyone else. Yes. Remember when I kept saying we need it to get to 50/50 over and over. I eventually stopped because it just wasn't going to happen and it was redundant. But let me illustrate why that is the magic spot for us... So picture the flow here around the 50/50...It keeps the flow out of the NW to our northeast providing the cold air but also "blocking" any wave coming along from cutting up to our west...but it also is out of the way enough to give space to any wave coming from the west to amplify. Look at the blue circle...the northern stream is out of the way pulled to our northeast where we want it. Something rotating around the 50/50 there usually just acts to prevent a cutter unless the 50/50 is too far SW OR a really strong vort comes along at the exact wrong time then yea we can squash something...but its way less an issue. SO we have a HUGE win zone...any STJ wave that comes along and tries to track northeast west of us will be forced to turn east or transfer to the coast into the box we need, black circle. Our path to a win is simple...get an STJ wave to come alone, with the NS way out of the way and room to amplify and try to turn north...get stopped in its tracks by the NS where we want it...and turn east under us. Boom But now look at the scenario with a TPV over top of us... Look at where the northern stream is directed now...right into the area we want a storm to amplify. So now...it almost guarantees some NS wave is going to be diving down on top of the STJ where we need a storm to develop. So to get a storm now we need one of those NS vorts (x's) to dig deep enough and play nice and phase with the STJ, and also we need it not to happen to soon and cut up west and not too late to go OTS and if the NS waves dont dig enough everything ends up north of us or if they don't phase nothing happens at all! It's a way more complicated setup and we don't ever seem to do complicated anymore! This can work. It has worked. 1966 and 1987 were analogs where this exact pattern worked. But... I don't think its as easy as it once was because the jet is shifted north and the NS just doesn't dig as much as it used to which is a problem in this specific scenario. Hope this helps... I wonder if a 50/50 also allows more room for a high pressure to form in the northeast which helps draw in Atlantic moisture. Otherwise, I guess we need to rely more so on the gulf. The Monday/Tuesday system doesn’t seem to have that banana high look, though the 6z gfs did for the late week setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So far, like some of the dudes I've been with, GFS looks better in the back. S/w is more diggy 1 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: So far, like some of the dudes I've been with, GFS looks better in the back. S/w is more diggy And TPV slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: And TPV slightly easy Not sure it gets it done this run, but the changes are encouraging...hopefully we can slow walk ourself back into the 12z solution today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 SW looks slightly more amplified and tpv oriented less suppressive than 18z. But not back to 12z. Somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Not sure it gets it done this run, but the changes are encouraging...hopefully we can slow walk ourself back into the 12z solution today Maybe not. Because 12z held a lot of energy back behind the vort which may have allowed it to dig. I don’t see it on 18z or this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 TPV is way east, more into 50/50. Might help 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: TPV is way east, more into 50/50. Might help H5 is definitely much improved so far. More moisture gathering down south. Trof needs to sharpen up. Quick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hold on… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 A lil something something going on at 126 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 This is gonna be close… 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It's a better run. Hold for details 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Digging a little more… i’m interested 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: It's a better run. Hold for details FO........................................ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It's close. We just missed the coastal. Gets decent precip back over the area from 132 and still ongoing at 138 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, yoda said: FO........................................ Nah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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