CAPE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not really concerned no. TPV in a good spot and my guess is -NAO episodes will be more prevalent in Feb. Euro weeklies have been persistently advertising it and that tool has performed quite well this winter so far. Speaking of.. the latest edition is a damn near perfect h5 depiction. It has been very consistent with this look overall for the back half of winter. -NAO develops earlier but this period is where the pattern really becomes mature. Hard to see on this view but that is a west based -NAO. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Big differences in the west now....likely not positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 tomer said that the euro weeklies keep cankicking the feb pattern though?? personally i dont see it but idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Speaking of.. the latest edition is a damn near perfect h5 depiction. It has been very consistent with this look overall for the back half of winter. -NAO develops earlier but this period where the pattern really becomes mature. Hard to see on this view but that is a west based -NAO. This is encouraging because the EPS long range has been doing great this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Oh well. Nothing like 12z. This run is a dead ratter. We got time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Southern stream is still visible on the 18z, so that's encouraging. Whether there's a vort or not, is the next question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Some festive light snow at hours 138-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 lil cute 1 to 2" if the GFS is to be believed. We only lost like what? 10" of snow from one run to the next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Some festive light snow at hours 138-144 Why do these waves look such a mess? Is it still being under that tpv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 lil cute 1 to 2" if the GFS is to be believed. We only lost like what? 10" of snow from one run to the nextIt’s all about strength of that sw entering the pac…seems like the stronger sw…the better chance it would digTerrible run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do these waves look such a mess? Is it still being under that tpv? Getting crushed and weakened by the TPV press… it would be better if it moved east to the 50/50 location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lil cute 1 to 2" if the GFS is to be believed. We only lost like what? 10" of snow from one run to the next Unfortunately this outcome aligns with what the ensembles have been persistently signaling since this became a 'window of interest'. I've made enough posts about it so I'll just shut up now and hope for the best like everyone else lol. We at least have time on our side. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like it's almost entirely based off of the interaction between the TPV and the main vort that doesn't even enter the WC until Wednesday. Needless to say, there's still time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Storm is 7 days away. Im not gonna put any kind of faith in any model till about Wednesday lol .. trusting models 7 days out makes as much sense as hiring my ex wife to give a symposium on being faithful! Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Speaking of.. the latest edition is a damn near perfect h5 depiction. It has been very consistent with this look overall for the back half of winter. -NAO develops earlier but this period is where the pattern really becomes mature. Hard to see on this view but that is a west based -NAO. Of course near President's Day. Looks great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Unfortunately this outcome aligns with what the ensembles have been persistently signaling since this became a 'window of interest'. I've made enough posts about it so I'll just shut up now and hope for the best like everyone else lol. We at least have time on our side. I hesitate to ask...but could you give a quick summary? (I may have missed your discussion before) Just asked about whether this had to do with the tpv, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I hesitate to ask...but could you give a quick summary? (I may have missed your discussion before) Just asked about whether this had to do with the tpv, lol I made 2 posts related to this in this thread today. Do a quick look through and read them. One is just a page or so back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 surprisingly, the GEFS actually defied the OP (shocker) and is more amped with the trough 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Are you saying the gfs handles nrn streams better than the euro? I’ve heard this too form reliable sources. Of course I’ve yet to see it work in our favor. But I’ve seen the gfs school the euro to our detriment a couple times and this was the reason given. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: surprisingly, the GEFS actually defied the OP (shocker) and is more amped with the trough The fact the op lost the mece isn’t a shock. The 12z ensembles showed a few hits and a lot of very light or no snow solutions. Even if the envelope improved from like 20% to 40% hits the odds would still favor the op drawing a less amplified solution. IMO people don’t attribute rhe operational results at range to chance enough. You’re just randomly getting one of the permutations possible within the envelope of likely outcomes at that range. It’s how that envelope of permutations trends run to run that matters way more than what the op says. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: I made 2 posts related to this in this thread today. Do a quick look through and read them. One is just a page or so back. Ah I see it...I was looking down the list of your posts to find it but somehow I still missed it, lol My apologies (shouldn't have asked ya to repeat it after you spent the time making it) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The fact the op lost the mece isn’t a shock. The 12z ensembles showed a few hits and a lot of very light or no snow solutions. Even if the envelope improved from like 20% to 40% hits the odds would still favor the op drawing a less amplified solution. IMO people don’t attribute rhe operational results at range to chance enough. You’re just randomly getting one of the permutations possible within the envelope of likely outcomes at that range. It’s how that envelope of permutations trends run to run that matters way more than what the op says. it’s just surprising that the ENS defied the OP. the GEFS almost invariably follows the OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s just surprising that the ENS defied the OP. the GEFS almost invariably follows the OP Not at that range in a NS dominant chaotic pattern with a pinwheeling block/tpv. You’re right in other situations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: tomer said that the euro weeklies keep cankicking the feb pattern though?? personally i dont see it but idk I don’t think its can kicking per say but I see some slightly troubling trends for early Feb. EPS 10 days ago eps now the major features are the same. But the eps has been delaying the -nao from redeveloping. That isn’t shocking that’s really hard for guidance to get right. Unfortunately that will be huge once the pac jet extends again. There will be a brief period late Jan as the pac jet starts to extend that the configuration is perfect and we don’t need any nao help to get cold. But early Feb the pac trough gets slightly east of perfect again. Not bad. Very common for a Nino. But we need some blocking help to stop the warmer air being injected there from spreading east and taking over. It’s still not a bad look at all. We would get chances. But the new look has more thermal issues than the look 10 days ago. If you want to be an optimist the eps is trending even better for the period Feb 10-25 though. It went from good to OMG how can it not snow in that. And I know we’re all super impatient now justifiably so but Mid Feb to early March is not too late. 2014, 2015, 2018 our best snow was after Feb 10 all those years! And two of them we remember very fondly! Personally since I’m out of the area from Feb 3-10 I’m ok with the timing. lol. I’ll duck and cover now… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It’s a messy bag of ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not at that range in a NS dominant chaotic pattern with a pinwheeling block/tpv. You’re right in other situations. That tpv is getting on my nerves...makes it feel like when waves are flying around in ninas, smh Hope it's in a better spot after the brief relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: That tpv is getting on my nerves...makes it feel like when waves are flying around in ninas, smh Hope it's in a better spot after the brief relax. Exactly. I said I didn’t like that feature before this pattern started. Wish I had been wrong about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Does anyone have a target ETA for the snow squalls tomorrow in northern VA / Loudoun Co? LWX has it narrowed down to a 5hr window (lol) so that doesn’t really help - I think the short range models have it pretty much nailed down, but I can’t find the post now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Exactly. I said I didn’t like that feature before this pattern started. Wish I had been wrong about that! Thing is it saved us in 2010. Could be that we get surprised by a couple of chances over the next 2 or 3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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