Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

FO........................................

Nah

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

FO........................................

I mean......

[psuhoffman]

It’s not 12z but it’s good enough to keep my interest. 

[stormtracker]

Still going at 147.  def some coastal enhancement in there I think...it's almost like Tuesday was supposed to be,

[Terpeast]

Just a slightly deeper dig, and this has nuke potential

[Chris78]

Its not 12z but I'd hit that

[stormtracker]

2 to 4 for the cities...about 4 to 6 from AA county east and like 6 to 8 over  the entirety of DE

 

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

2 to 4 for the cities...about 4 to 6 from AA county east and like 6 to 8 over  the entirety of DE

@CAPE accepts

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just a slightly deeper dig, and this has nuke potential

You aren’t kidding. It’s a slight amplitide Away from capturing the developing coastal. It’s trapped from climbing past our latitude by the flow. If it can get captured by the energy at the tail of the trough….boom

 

[baltosquid]

We can’t get hurt by suppression twice in a row right? So… right where we want it.

[DarkSharkWX]

way better this run w the tpv and main wave seperation(12z vs 18z vs 0z)

[yoda]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You aren’t kidding. It’s a slight amplitide Away from capturing the developing coastal. It’s trapped from climbing past our latitude by the flow. If it can get captured by the energy at the tail of the trough….boom

 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not 12z but it’s good enough to keep my interest. 

12z had a much stronger s/w crashing into the PAC NW...not sure where it came from but the orientation and the strength was instrumental i think in it digging

[psuhoffman]

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

way better this run w the tpv and main wave seperation(12z vs 18z vs 0z)

Did they feed PSU’s drawings into the Gfs as input? Hmmm

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

We can’t get hurt by suppression twice in a row right? So… right where we want it.

You didn't tell us you just moved here.  Welcome man.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

unacceptable in a winter where 09-10 was a top analog

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

unacceptable in a winter where 09-10 was a top analog

These are just teasers. Our two hecs come in Mid Feb and early March. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

unacceptable in a winter where 09-10 was a top analog

Maybe it was 1909-10.  That was a dicey season

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

TPV is way east, more into 50/50. Might help

Very notable and important trend over the last few runs imo.

[stormtracker]

I am currently enjoying a Martini and biding time before the Euro. There’s a non zero chance that i might be yelling man down before then. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I am currently enjoying a Martini and biding time before the Euro. There’s a non zero chance that i might be yelling man down before then. 

I think we may bring the Mon-Tues event home now….F the Euro 

[deer]

NSFW screenshot here

[stormtracker]

ok, so...so far Euro is pretty similar vs 18z

[stormtracker]

Now switching to comparing 0z vs 12z....def some h5 changes...nothing wacky so far...s/w out west is stronger

[psuhoffman]

The SW in question seems a little stronger and a little south of 12z at 102

[stormtracker]

Its going to be a better run, BUT it's all relative.  Won't get to where we want, but there is increase in aerial coverage of precip where there is some in the south where there was none before.  Snow on our doorstep at 129hr

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Its going to be a better run, BUT it's all relative.  Won't get to where we want, but there is increase in aerial coverage of precip where there is some in the south where there was none before.  Snow on our doorstep at 129hr

none of the other panels are past day 4, but for some reason the h5 updated out to day 5.5 on wxbell.  I can tell its better but not like that 12z GFS run...but its a significant difference from the 12z euro.  Much closer to something big but the SW looks like it needed to be slightly more amplified to get it done.  But huge move in the right direction from 12z IMO. 

[stormtracker]

Definitely a wetter run so far...like I said, nothing to jump for joy over, but it's a definite improvement

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Definitely a wetter run so far...like I said, nothing to jump for joy over, but it's a definite improvement

I just wanna hear… Folks!