Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though! its starting to slip away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Ji said: its starting to slip away EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 minutes ago, H2O said: He’s back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Solution Man said: He’s back Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us . Agreed. Euro also brings our sw into the CA/OR border. GFS has been consistent into Seattle. SW coming into the west coast further south and more phasing of the first system both allow for more separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn. i know. its just an uneasy feeling when the euro/eps is not in agreement with the GFS. not having a snowstorm for 2 years makes you think of the worst case scenario everytime 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Big disagreement between gfs and euro. I don’t think they can “see” past these two powerful midwest storms. We shouldn’t get invested in any potential solutions beyond the 13th at this point. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that lol the southern stream has been non stop since Nov 20 till we finally get cold enough? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 one of the worst 18z happy runs i have ever seen 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Big disagreement between gfs and euro. I don’t think they can “see” past these two powerful midwest storms. We shouldn’t get invested in any potential solutions beyond the 13th at this point. Probably having some impact. A this point I don't think either are far off from a favorable outcome, albeit somewhat different paths. All part of the fun of tracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Ji said: one of the worst 18z happy runs i have ever seen just wait till the hour 300+ HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: just wait till the hour 300+ HECS That 1029 high moving east will transform into…..well you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I think people were a little too hard on you given how most of us don't use models the way they're supposed to be utilized - even though we generally know better When we're sitting here at a week out analyzing discrete mesoscale features (like rain/snow lines) using a singular global model (myself included), I think we need to be a little more tolerant of people who don't indulge in this stuff. Also think some people’s definition of what “accurate” means is severely misguided. If guidance 2-3 weeks out shows a pattern change and a potential storm or two but ends up being a few days late / early on the arrival of the cold air and 100 miles off with SLP track, that’s still astonishingly accurate from that lead. Models nailed last storm from very far out, they simply missed some of the finer details that determined exactly where sufficiently cold air (for snow) would be. Now, if we’re talking minute details (exact track, R/S line, etc) we really shouldn’t be taking any solution outside 5 days verbatim. That’s never changed. Sure, models have been upgraded and are a bit more accurate, but it’s extremely rare that any model gets all details correct outside of 3 days. The issue is we want models to give us our desired outcome, and when they don’t, they “suck” or they are misleading. They’re not misleading. We’re misleading ourselves most of the time based on our emotions regarding desired outcome. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, Ji said: one of the worst 18z happy runs i have ever seen Yeah. "Total Obliteration" isnt working out so well on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Total obliteration of snow hopes and dreams looking on track tho. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 21 minutes ago, Ji said: lol the southern stream has been non stop since Nov 20 till we finally get cold enough? Warm/wet, cold/dry 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 well, if it makes anyone feel better, this storm took a somewhat decent track for places like Milwaukee to get lambasted with snow, especially in early January. Instead, they've been getting white rain, with temps hovering in the mid 30s. Perfect track slop storms isn't just happening to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewber Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Milwaukee and Chicago are having trouble with temperatures during the current storm because the adjacent lake is warmer than normal. There should be some ice on the lake right now, but that hasn't been possible because of the mild weather in the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 50 minutes ago, Ji said: lol the southern stream has been non stop since Nov 20 till we finally get cold enough? It didn't stop dude...even on the Op run you see waves continuing to come from the SS but as the cold flexes they're just a bit suppressed for a little bit. No Niño winter is gonna be non-stop perfect cold boundary. It flexes and relaxes, right? And this is the first real flex of cold that we've had. I think the waves will continue to be there (but hey, what do I know, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, Drewber said: Milwaukee and Chicago are having trouble with temperatures during the current storm because the adjacent lake is warmer than normal. There should be some ice on the lake right now, but that hasn't been possible because of the mild weather in the region. agreed, but water temps are on fire in most of the world right now, so perfect track rain/slop fests are becoming more common especially in early winter. I think it's one reason why march has been far snowier than december lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z GEFS is a down tick for snow in the Monday/Tuesday period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I believe this is what Heisy was mentioning on a previous page, but increased separation between these NS SWs is evident on the GFS the past few runs - this leads to a flatter evolution of our southern stream interaction for the 16th. While it is not a significant amount, the 12Z Euro moved towards more separation here as well (like it had yesterday at 12Z actually). I've been noticing this so far with the GFS this winter, it seems to be the first to sniff out how far energy will pull back in general. It lead the charge for a flatter and weaker 500 mb vort evolution for our last storm in the Day 3-5 range which ended up being the correct forecast compared to more progressive CMC and Euro solutions. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Not worried about the day 15 “relax”. EPS goes from this day 15 to this 3 days later and 3 days after that the nao is tanking again. By the time the pattern goes to crap in the east the pacific has already resumed a favorable configuration to bounce right back. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Not worried about the day 15 “relax”. EPS goes from this day 15 to this 3 days later and 3 days after that the nao is tanking again. By the time the pattern goes to crap in the east the pacific has already resumed a favorable configuration to bounce right back. Just keep swimming… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 agreed, but water temps are on fire in most of the world right now, so perfect track rain/slop fests are becoming more common especially in early winter. I think it's one reason why march has been far snowier than december lately.PSU touched upon this earlier. Cooler water temps and SSTs in feb & march help in marginal areas like ours. Deep December cold has become a lot less common and therefore it’s taking longer for ocean / lake temps to cool off. Have to imagine the Great Lakes are much warmer than usual for this time of year. Also means the LES machine is about to go ape shit when the real cold comes starting next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not worried about the day 15 “relax”. EPS goes from this day 15 to this 3 days later and 3 days after that the nao is tanking again. By the time the pattern goes to crap in the east the pacific has already resumed a favorable configuration to bounce right back. I'm having doubts of any kind of relax now. Been expecting ens to rebuild or not unbuild the general blocking theme as leads shorten. Happening kind of quick. That's very encouraging. Nobody in here wants to deal with a 1 week wait just to get cold close enough to snow again. This is acceptable for Feb too 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 CFS monthly looks just as sweet. All 3 global ens are moving in this direction late in their runs right now and it makes sense (at least to me lol) Get the -AO/NAO/EPO combo and we won't have many temp problems. Get those features linked and stable and we can probably stumble drunk into a nice storm. Might be the only way cuz we bout tried errything else man.... sheesh... lol 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We will need 2 blizzards in Feb to make this winter 5 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We will need 2 blizzards in Feb to make this winter I mean it depends how big. If we got a match 58 redux but in Feb so the whole area got 50” (qpf was absolutely insane with that storm had it been a month sooner that isn’t a stretch) then you can’t complain. But I agree one 6-12” storm wouldn’t make this an A/B winter if that’s all we got. That essentially would be another 1995 and no one remembers that fondly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Ji said: We will need 2 blizzards in Feb to make this winter I'm pretty optimistic about at least 1 decent event this month. I don't like seeing so many runs with mix lines west of 95 tho. It's been a strong personality trait this winter. Sometimes those are hard to shake. We'll see 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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