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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Let's hope GFS is leading the way.  Because Euro is a meh with flurries

Next Friday not working out would hurt a lot more than Tuesday. Because after that we have a bit of a relax (may not last long though)...but that would mean we got nothing out of the first favorable period we've had, smh I mean I GUESS it's okay that at least there's a storm on all guidance right now.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:


Shocking that dr no would say no

 

System is heavily NRN stream involved...GFS/CMC might school the Euro on this one til we get inside 90-100.  Vice versa looks like it may happen on Tuesday, tons of SRN stream activity and GFS now looks to be the most lost of any model with that one 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

System is heavily NRN stream involved...GFS/CMC might school the Euro on this one til we get inside 90-100.  Vice versa looks like it may happen on Tuesday, tons of SRN stream activity and GFS now looks to be the most lost of any model with that one 

Great point, I have heard this before. Looking forward to monitoring this during the upcoming work week.  

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1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Winds really whipping here.  Notice the sideways waves in the water from the wind pushing it... ( i tried posting a video of it but it said it was too large to post lol)

20240113_123146.jpg

i miss living by the water (we lived in Battery Park City about one block from the water in NYC)

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31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

System is heavily NRN stream involved...GFS/CMC might school the Euro on this one til we get inside 90-100.  Vice versa looks like it may happen on Tuesday, tons of SRN stream activity and GFS now looks to be the most lost of any model with that one 

Are you saying the gfs handles nrn streams better than the euro?

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, discussing the Euro and not for that bullshit on Tuesday.  This is for the next one that's surely gonna get us.

So comparing H5 Euro vs GFS....Euro doesn't look the same.  Seems less favorable to the 19th thingy

Good. Kill the threat  before we get sucked in. I'm already onto the Feb 5 event.

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13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, if it did then there wouldn't be a game anyway.  The NFL is a ****ing joke anymore.

I don't see how Erie county placing a travel ban effective at 2100 tonight is the NFL's fault. If the NFL was such a joke they'd postpone the KC-Miami game.

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Hell of a ridge bridge between the retrograding -NAO and the PNA ridge progressing eastward. A factor that could contribute to the 20th storm potential coming together too late/offshore. If it amps enough and develops a wave break in time the GFS scenario might be a real possibility. Also would give us our coldest temps in a long time followed quickly by a late Jan warm up.

1705773600-Ikgwsy2CEdM.png

1705924800-r2uO50Ld1m8.png

Any January 'thaw' looks short lived though as the advertised pattern reshuffles to a -EPO/+PNA look for the end of the month. Colder air should be in place again by the beginning of Feb.

1706443200-WpWnIgMNfdU.png

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Copied from a post I made on a different site:

 

Okay I identified these two areas as important. The shortwave over BC, and the TPV. You want the TPV further east and that shortwave a little more amplified and orientated more North to South.


IMG_4500.thumb.jpeg.3894183713625c97f85886fd20424754.jpeg

 

In terms of the shortwave over BC the 12z euro is an improvement over the 6z gfs but not as good as the 12z gfs. The reason why the 12z euro looks bad is because of the less favorable TPV position. I will be paying close attention to the position of the TPV over the next few runs as well as seeing how much that vort coming in from the Pacific is able to amplify and have a more favorable orientation

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59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a ridge bridge between the retrograding -NAO and the PNA ridge progressing eastward. A factor that could contribute to the 20th storm potential coming together too late/offshore. If it amps enough and develops a wave break in time the GFS scenario might be a real possibility. Also would give us our coldest temps in a long time followed quickly by a late Jan warm up.

1705773600-Ikgwsy2CEdM.png

1705924800-r2uO50Ld1m8.png

Any January 'thaw' looks short lived though as the advertised pattern reshuffles to a -EPO/+PNA look for the end of the month. Colder air should be in place again by the beginning of Feb.

1706443200-WpWnIgMNfdU.png

that looks good, but are you concerned about the +NAO for the end of jan a bit? +PNA won't allow for -NAO wavebreaking, atl the way its advertised now

atl we finally have cold air lmfao

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we get 2 snowstorms of 20" each in the first half of March, is that a success? Dead ass serious question.

Of course. I know where we live. This isn’t Vermont. Now obviously where I live has different standards than DC. But even up here I don’t even need 2 20” storms. In I get a couple 12” storms even in March I’d probably remember it as a good year. That would be a lot of fun. I don’t grade based on average or the snow total. For example 2018 and 2019. 2019 had about 5” more here than 2018. But it mostly came a couple inches at a time and a lot of the snow wasn’t enough to do anything in and melted immediately. It was pretty frustrating. 2018 I remember more fondly because there was a decent storm in Dec then a 14” storm in March. My last 12”+ storm btw!  Two periods I enjoyed with enough snow to actually play in. Go sledding. Make a snow fort. Several days of Jebwalks not having to rush before it melts in 5 mins.  
 

Give me a couple dynamic big snows in a season and I’m good. 

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6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare

seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

What about 1958, 1966, 1978, 1987??? You skipped over all those other Nino analogs. I nor anyone else said only 2003 or 2010. I didn’t predict 75” in Baltimore!  I thew out the couple dud +++AO ninos because I calculated those were bad matches then I aversged all the other Nino analogs together. So why are you acting like I expected 2010?  What I expected was to fall somewhere within the scope of all the previous analogs to this pattern. Forget 2010. If we want want to sniff an avg of 58,66,78,87 we’re in big big trouble if something doesn’t hit soon. 

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10 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

that looks good, but are you concerned about the +NAO for the end of jan a bit? +PNA won't allow for -NAO wavebreaking, atl the way its advertised now

atl we finally have cold air lmfao

Not really concerned no. TPV in a good spot and my guess is -NAO episodes will be more prevalent in Feb. Euro weeklies have been persistently advertising it and that tool has performed quite well this winter so far.

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