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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS shifted towards a more coherent S/W coming off the WC. results are spectacular lmao

IMG_4261.thumb.png.2258214837772a770886ea5462d896dc.pngIMG_4262.thumb.png.8d062162267c39c91fe4eac641a72829.png

Yes, for sure.  Previous cycles had that trough as just a broad kind of nothing much.  This is, I believe, what @psuhoffman said some pages back what we'd need (at least here in the mid-Atlantic), that trough to really dig down there since there's not much of a southern stream per se.

(ETA:  And, am I mistaken in seeing that a piece of the PV phases somewhat with it??  Or at least starts to.)

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Wrt Jan 20 I wouldn’t get too in the weeds. There are lots of variables you can over analyze. But in general the western ridge is fine. The biggest issue is just that there is no healthy STJ wave at the right time. 
 

So absent that what we need is simply more dig from the NS. To get this I think we need more separation between the main TPV vortex and whatever NS SW is rotating around the back side of the trough at that time. The guidance can’t even agree on which SW it wants to amplify run to run!  But whatever it is it needs more separation to be able to amplify and dig further south.  

That would be out of character for you.

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14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

At least this is inside 7 days. I'll get more excited once we get within 4 days and it's still showing similar outcomes. And we need the euro on board.

4 days seems to be our witching hour this year. 

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25 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

This is my veiw from my front deck.  It is nice.   :) i go crabbing all the time off my pier :)

20240113_110709.jpg

Man that is nice!!

I love taking our grandchildren out on a pier and dropping smelley  chicken pieces. I am a great dipper. 

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

4 days seems to be our witching hour this year. 

... but this one will work because it's right on the edge of the January 20th - February 20th EL Nino window for big snows!

The GGEM does a pretty good job of predicting the 500 hPa pattern ... but yeah the solutions it shows at the surface rarely verify without support from other models. 

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