Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Too bad ridge axis is not near Boise.  

Is GFS hour 384 still showing cross polar flow as psu mentioned a couple days back.? 

0z EPS has a -EPO/+PNA in the LR with a well placed Aleutian low. That's the type of pattern that can inject Arctic air into the flow and send it southward.

[CAPE]

STJ undercutting the western ridge. EPS depicts a pretty active southern stream with indication of h5 shortwaves in the flow.

[CAPE]

6z GEFS for the 20th

[frd]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

STJ undercutting the western ridge. EPS depicts a pretty active southern stream with indication of h5 shortwaves in the flow.

Late month fun.  We need a pattern with no path to failure.  Maybe this over running pattern might be it.   

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Late month fun.  We need a pattern with no path to failure.  Maybe this over running pattern might be it.   

Seems every path leads me to nowhere...

From one of the best songs of the Grunge era. But yeah, given our latitude and lack of elevation, there are always paths to failure. We always need some degree of luck to get snow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

That low track is pretty far offshore- looks like an inverted trough type deal.

That's a clear path to victory...we do Norlun troughs like bosses.

/s

[Ralph Wiggum]

In all seriousness tho, this seem to be progressing as a few have mentioned. Best chances of the season thus far middle January thru around the 21st then a relax thru the end of month with a reload into Feb with our chance for a bigger storm. The hope was we would cash in on the chances this week and some spots certainly will do that before the transition. Ens means are clear with the relax after the 21st and towards the end of the run (s) you can see the reload back to workable happening. GEPS has the best reflection of this.

So, while we were/are hoping for something bigger this week after stepping back from the 16-17 potential, we do have a workable (not ideal) setup.late week before we relax. Ens means have been pretty decent with the large scale features in the LR, so we should see more chances again. We just gotta hang in. At least we aren't shitting the blinds right?

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In all seriousness tho, this seem to be progressing as a few have mentioned. Best chances of the season thus far middle January thru around the 21st then a relax thru the end of month with a reload into Feb with our chance for a bigger storm. The hope was we would cash in on the chances this week and some spots certainly will do that before the transition. Ens means are clear with the relax after the 21st and towards the end of the run (s) you can see the reload back to workable happening. GEPS has the best reflection of this.

So, while we were/are hoping for something bigger this week after stepping back from the 16-17 potential, we do have a workable (not ideal) setup.late week before we relax. Ens means have been pretty decent with the large scale features in the LR, so we should see more chances again. We just gotta hang in. At least we aren't shitting the blinds right?

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In all seriousness tho, this seem to be progressing as a few have mentioned. Best chances of the season thus far middle January thru around the 21st then a relax thru the end of month with a reload into Feb with our chance for a bigger storm. The hope was we would cash in on the chances this week and some spots certainly will do that before the transition. Ens means are clear with the relax after the 21st and towards the end of the run (s) you can see the reload back to workable happening. GEPS has the best reflection of this.

So, while we were/are hoping for something bigger this week after stepping back from the 16-17 potential, we do have a workable (not ideal) setup.late week before we relax. Ens means have been pretty decent with the large scale features in the LR, so we should see more chances again. We just gotta hang in. At least we aren't shitting the blinds right?

EPS and GEPS have an even clearer signal. i think any relaxation would be brief, then the Aleutian low develops

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

0z EPS has a -EPO/+PNA in the LR with a well placed Aleutian low. That's the type of pattern that can inject Arctic air into the flow and send it southward.

The eps has been absolutely crushing the pattern even out to day 30!  If you’ve been following the weeklies the day 16-30 just transitions right into day 15 seamlessly and you can go bank and look at day 20-30 means and they’ve ended up almost exactly the long wave pattern when it became day 1-10!  It’s happening again.  The gefs has been ok but it’s had way more hiccups and tangents.
 

A few days after that the tpv gets displaced again and the nao goes negative and we roll through Feb with a pretty good pattern.  But we’ve been in that pattern for 20 days now!  

The reasons we have yet to snow are not the long wave pattern. It’s been bad luck with meso details within the pattern.  Although I think the NS not digging enough next Tuesday or Friday and the last storm being too warm are perhaps not just bad luck but I’ll reserve that debate for the panic room. We just have to hope at some point we get more luck with one of these threats. In the pattern we seem to have through Feb they will keep coming. It would be eye opening if we manage to waste them all. This isn’t like 2020 or 2023 with there was just no chance. 

[osfan24]

The problem is completely whiffing going into February means we basically need a repeat of 2010 for his winter to be a success in my mind given the past seven years and what we see looking ahead.

[Weather Will]

Chin up, if it can snow in Mississippi, it can still snow here....

[Terpeast]

I’m in bargaining mode now. If we can manage an inch in Jan, I’m good with that. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS and GEPS have an even clearer signal. i think any relaxation would be brief, then the Aleutian low develops

You know I agree but putting all our eggs in Feb is risky. We needed this winter to be big not just ok. This is our high bar pattern year. It needs to be 40” not 20” and we’re starting to waste way too many chances to feel optimistic this year gets to 1958, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010 levels. Those were the analogs. That’s the bar. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I’m in bargaining mode now. If we can manage an inch in Jan, I’m good with that. 

I hear you, just give us something to look at. We need to break the ice

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You know I agree but putting all our eggs in Feb is risky. We needed this winter to be big not just ok. This is our high bar pattern year. It needs to be 40” not 20” and we’re starting to waste way too many chances to feel optimistic this year gets to 1958, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010 levels. Those were the analogs. That’s the bar. 

I think that boat has sailed. We needed at least one of the two storms from jan 16-21 to hit fairly big to put this winter within that class of analogs. 

[Heisy]

6z eps control look like better phasing occurring. The problem for this event is the PNA ridge rolling over just doesn’t give this wave enough room to amplify. It’s why the GFS shoves the low SE. a modest event certainly possible though


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[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I’m in bargaining mode now. If we can manage an inch in Jan, I’m good with that. 

If we’re gonna break the streak I want it to be where a legit snowstorm. I don’t want to end it with some 1.1” BS that’s not not even enough snow to do anything with. I’d rather keep the streak just for the comedy. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z eps control look like better phasing occurring. The problem for this event is the PNA ridge rolling over just doesn’t give this wave enough room to amplify. It’s why the GFS shoves the low SE. a modest event certainly possible though


.

And then watch it fall apart by D3

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I think that boat has sailed. We needed at least one of the two storms from jan 16-21 to hit fairly big to put this winter within that class of analogs. 

That’s what my fear is. It would be one thing if the pattern never evolved right. Like if the yo-yos ignoring the forcing plots and saying this was an extreme east based Nino like 1998 were right and we got a non stop jet onslaught into the west…then maybe we can’t draw much from it. 
 

But if we get the pattern of all those big snow years, and we have, but don’t get the snow. I don’t mean no snow, but if the pattern that’s responsible for all our 40”+ winters only produces like 20” this year, that’s even more depressing and damning imo if you consider what it implies!  
 

And the last most annoying part of that will be the “everything is fine don’t you dare mention CC” crew will insist “look we got 10-20” see it’s fine” not realizing how bad it is to only get a mediocre result in a pattern that’s produced epic winters almost every other time!  

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s what my fear is. It would be one thing if the pattern never evolved right. Like if the yo-yos ignoring the forcing plots and saying this was an extreme east based Nino like 1998 were right and we got a non stop jet onslaught into the west…then maybe we can’t draw much from it. 
 

But if we get the pattern of all those big snow years, and we have, but don’t get the snow. I don’t mean no snow, but if the pattern that’s responsible for all our 40”+ winters only produces like 20” this year, that’s even more depressing and damning imo if you consider what it implies!  
 

And the last most annoying part of that will be the “everything is fine don’t you dare mention CC” crew will insist “look we got 10-20” see it’s fine” not realizing how bad it is to only get a mediocre result in a pattern that’s produced epic winters almost every other time!  

Yeah, I think deep down we know we already have our answer

[Ji]

That’s what my fear is. It would be one thing if the pattern never evolved right. Like if the yo-yos ignoring the forcing plots and saying this was an extreme east based Nino like 1998 were right and we got a non stop jet onslaught into the west…then maybe we can’t draw much from it. 
 
But if we get the pattern of all those big snow years, and we have, but don’t get the snow. I don’t mean no snow, but if the pattern that’s responsible for all our 40”+ winters only produces like 20” this year, that’s even more depressing and damning imo if you consider what it implies!  
 
And the last most annoying part of that will be the “everything is fine don’t you dare mention CC” crew will insist “look we got 10-20” see it’s fine” not realizing how bad it is to only get a mediocre result in a pattern that’s produced epic winters almost every other time!  

We will need 2 blizzards in Feb March to make this a good winter. It’s possible! We even got 30 inches after mid Feb in 2015!

But yes…we will need a once in a lifetime hecs to have a chance

[konksw]

Mood flakes tomorrow? HRRR has a nice like snow squall line moving through the area. 

[Heisy]

We will need 2 blizzards in Feb March to make this a good winter. It’s possible! We even got 30 inches after mid Feb in 2015!

But yes…we will need a once in a lifetime hecs to have a chance

Any winter with a blizzard is a good winter. I don’t care if the rest of the days are sunny and 50 degrees. Give me one blizzard and I’d be a happy man.


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[konksw]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Any winter with a blizzard is a good winter. I don’t care if the rest of the days are sunny and 50 degrees. Give me one blizzard and I’d be a happy man.


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2016 dreaming. 

[Weather Will]

MJO looks like it will be heading toward 8 as we go into February, which is good.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Any winter with a blizzard is a good winter. I don’t care if the rest of the days are sunny and 50 degrees. Give me one blizzard and I’d be a happy man.


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I do share this sentiment. I don’t remember too many 3-6/4-8” storms, but the big ones are vividly etched into my photographic memories. I just hope my memory doesn’t go when I get older (and I’m not exactly a spring chicken either)

[Superstorm]

Any winter with a blizzard is a good winter. I don’t care if the rest of the days are sunny and 50 degrees. Give me one blizzard and I’d be a happy man.


.

Agreed.

Give me a guaranteed 2016 every year, and I don’t care what the weather is like the rest of the winter.


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[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

We will need 2 blizzards in Feb March to make this a good winter. It’s possible! We even got 30 inches after mid Feb in 2015!

But yes…we will need a once in a lifetime hecs to have a chance

I agree. I’m not throwing in the towel yet because we could get a hecs in this pattern and then we would just need one or two more secs level events to get there. It’s doable. But we’re getting late in the game now.  I really thought we would hit on one of these January chances and now I’m thinking we might not. 
 

One thing to root for when this pattern reloads in Feb is not to have a tpv stuck under the block right on top of us next time. That complicates things. I think we will be cold engine after the epo pna ridge dumps cold into the east late Jan that we can roll without a tpv near us and let the stj go to work without any NS interference!  I know this current pattern worked in 66 and 87 but the NS is on steroids lately and it doesn’t dig as much as it used too, not sure that can work as well anymore. I’d prefer a split flow with the NS way out of the way. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS and GEPS have an even clearer signal. i think any relaxation would be brief, then the Aleutian low develops

And thats the thing, the ens have been honestly pretty good at seeing the overall longwave setup at range. And we have had some decent looks. My frustration last week was that we just aren't cashing in when we get the better setups. And that is to be expected....to a degree. But, throw enough chances and eventually it will happen. This is why wall to wall winter from Dec 1-mid March is a myth....not the norm.