Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Weather Will]

Miller Bs always work out for the MA.  EURO will be rock solid on it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Is it possible to get a low in the MA that isn’t 1075 mb?

[WinterWxLuvr]

1-3 and 2-4 are and always have been typical winter “storms”. Setting the bar at 6+ is gonna leave you high and dry almost all of the time.

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened

That's my concern lol. Tennessee valley sees snow on Monday. North East gets it next Friday/Saturday.  We're in the middle.

I think there was some crazy 1400 hour snow maps that kind of looked that way a couple weeks ago. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened

There is a frontrunner piece of vorticity, then the stronger piece comes in behind. If that digs further south and the coastal low pops off the NC coast instead of DE, we are probably referring to this as a 'dual low structure' instead of a Miller B. We just need a little more dig in general, regardless of whether there is an initial weaker low or not.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened

I don't love the current look, BUT I do like where it's heading.  It was all NS before today, which is why we weren't getting any good looks at all.  The euro is kind of a hybrid now, it does activate a weak STJ wave and begins to amplify it while its still in the TN valley.  I would love to see it become STJ dominant v a hybrid but its already a much better look that a pure NS miller b and its trending towards more STJ interaction today.  If we get one more trend the same way as the last 24 hours suddenly we have a big dog look.  IMO its already moved towards a progression that is at least unlikely to miss us completely, but the threat that it is only a modest event here and more significant further north is real. 

[HighStakes]

Quite cold behind the Friday system. The Ravens will finally play a home playoff game in freezing weather. If Buffalo beats Pittsburg which is likely then that game will be ridiculous. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

Quite cold behind the Friday system. The Ravens will finally play a home playoff game in freezing weather. If Buffalo beats Pittsburg which is likely then that game will be ridiculous. 

You don't think Mason Rudolph will be throwing lasers through the wind and blowing snow in Buffalo?

[WVsnowlover]

24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

1-3 and 2-4 are and always have been typical winter “storms”. Setting the bar at 6+ is gonna leave you high and dry almost all of the time.

I just want to see an inch at this point. I feel like it's been forever.

[Paleocene]

EPS likes something miller B-coastal-ish for the 19th-20th period.

 

[Yeoman]

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

1-3 and 2-4 are and always have been typical winter “storms”. 

Cm

[psuhoffman]

The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold.

This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win.  The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it.  That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat.  And its actually what the guidance suggests.  

 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Cm

We were talking about snow 

[stormy]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks better than Tuesday

[yoda]

3pm AFD from LWX mentions end of next week as a more "traditional threat"

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation
headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below
normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat
of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain.

Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere
will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of
next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally
early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the
middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by
a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada -
will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the
Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday
through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing
of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be
crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts
across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting
to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z)
remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and
probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago.

As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better
sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the
next 1 to 2 days.

Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal
temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits
on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder
values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday
night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist.

By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in
a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging
near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN
Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally.
Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the
end of next week.

&&

[Paleocene]

Love seeing this in January, even if the precip map shows below normal. I hunt cold!

[jayyy]

To be fair, every run since November has been mint and I will give credit where it is due, I have seen my mint green grass every day his winter.

You must be a life coach.


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[Heisy]

For my own sanity I’ll move to the second threat.




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[WxUSAF]

Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday.  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday.  

Yes sir. HP dropping in faster this run too. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes sir. HP dropping in faster this run too. 

But then it all separates and turns into a shit sandwich. Some light snow verbatim, but looked better than 12z for awhile.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday.  

again....nothing. Never happens with our rainstorms

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

For my own sanity I’ll move to the second threat.




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Bleh 

[Terpeast]

Cold and dry and then reload for Feb

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS pretty pathetic through Friday.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Cold and dry and then reload for Feb

Gut looks to be right. Never bet against the gut, blech 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

again....nothing. Never happens with our rainstorms

I can't talk whether you're just ignoring what people say to refute this on purpose or you actually can't see it. Rainstorms are rainstorms and nobody pays attention to shifts in track because they don't typically matter to most of us! 

Why can't you see that? Model waffling happens all year around--just largely unnoticed.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does anyone else think it might be a little warm for the 2nd storm? That's a 500mb 482dm low off the south coast of Greenland at 165hr (++nao) and a 593dm high north of Puerto Rico. 

[Heisy]

For this threat root for the energy crashing on shore to trend stronger and for the tpv to tick East which imo will trap the incoming wave under it with the established block. We gotta cash something on these two threats


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[CAPE]

Ooh I get it now- this is the 'total obliteration (of our hopes and dreams) is coming' thread!