psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps . I see what you are saying, and historically I would be more excited...but given recent trends do we think that would still be "cold enough"? Also, its a deamplifying pattern with no real thermal boundary in the east, just a big dome of decaying cold under the NS. Not sure how likely getting an organized storm there would be. Anything that amplified would seek out the real thermal boundary way up to our north. So while its not the torch you might think looking at the H5 I am not enthused at the chances of snow there either. BUT...the pacific is already aligning into the PERFECT look by day 15 to begin the process of getting back to a good snowstorm threat window by early February, that is the best thing I take from that day 15. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well this is it... we are getting the exact pattern we wanted from this Nino and its lining up exactly with our best snow climo. Next 30 days on EPS Temps If we don't get a lot of snow out of this it won't be because we didn't get the nino pattern we wanted. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: EPS has nothing for this timeframe today it’s more so that if a wave does get picked up (which is certainly the case), it will have a top tier synoptic pattern to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with everything you said, but "better" is a low bar given what the recent results have been lol. true, but then it kind of comes down to expectations. And understandably yours are generally higher given you average 200%+ of my climo. I'm not really a HECS chaser. I'd lock in a 3-4" front end thump just to get on the board 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet Unfortunately, the previous pattern voided North America of cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 40 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: true, but then it kind of comes down to expectations. And understandably yours are generally higher given you average 200%+ of my climo. I'm not really a HECS chaser. I'd lock in a 3-4" front end thump just to get on the board Same. Remember the ol' 3 to 5/6 storms? Those were the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Ok, time for 18z GFS disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, time for 18z GFS disappointment Fix a drink and get a mallet. Both help quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet part of me wants this to fail to see the ultimate winter will never happen again post for you and a total meltdown of the ages 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, winter_warlock said: 23 members have me getting accumulated snows in central md. Not bad for 6 days out. Im sure it will change a few times lol i dont see many members that show rain. Its more snow and ice or nothing than rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Fix a drink and get a mallet. Both help quite a bit My consolation prize is already set. Regardless of the fail, I win. Know why? Taco Tuesday. And get this...I'm making them with NACHO CHEESE shells. Yup. Mmmhmm. How 'bout that W? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 One minor detail I noticed. I’m a sicko and like to compare “good” outcome runs “bad” outcome runs for snow. Today what I noticed is that the model runs that are better for us tend to have these two shortwaves phasing better. The farther apart these two the worst the outcome ends up being for our region fwiw. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 49 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: true, but then it kind of comes down to expectations. And understandably yours are generally higher given you average 200%+ of my climo. I'm not really a HECS chaser. I'd lock in a 3-4" front end thump just to get on the board Why does everyone think I’d be unhappy with 3-4” of snow? Maybe if it was a fringe and 20 miles away got 12”+ then ya that kinda sucks. But I was thrilled with that 3-4” storm I got in December! When I’m analyzing patterns my goals are big. I can’t control anything so why not look for signals for big storms? But that doesn’t mean I’m unhappy if we get a regular snow. And it’s not like we’re getting those anyways. It’s not been snowing at all lately. My issue with progressive waves isn’t that they aren’t a HECS. It’s that they typically have a narrow zone of snow and the patterns that produce them are rarely going to lead to a snowy season. Rooting to get lucky with those is basically setting our high bar for the season at below average for the region as a whole. Ya maybe someone gets lucky to hit a couple and beat climo but as a whole we don’t get snowy seasons that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Ji said: i dont see many members that show rain. Its more snow and ice or nothing than rain Amen to that bro!!Id rather have snow. If its not gonna snow then be sunny lol dont want rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My consolation prize is already set. Regardless of the fail, I win. Know why? Taco Tuesday. And get this...I'm making them with NACHO CHEESE shells. Yup. Mmmhmm. How 'bout that W? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My consolation prize is already set. Regardless of the fail, I win. Know why? Taco Tuesday. And get this...I'm making them with NACHO CHEESE shells. Yup. Mmmhmm. How 'bout that W? Dayumm. I love tacos!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024 Well. I guess seeing the recent modeling made him a believer again lol.. im sure he will cancel winter again when he gets disappointed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Ji said: part of me wants this to fail to see the ultimate winter will never happen again post for you and a total meltdown of the ages Not gonna happen. For the last 7 years every failure has been couched by “but Nina” by the crowd that doesn’t want to acknowledge the “elephant”. Meanwhile we’ve had a Nino and 2 neutral winters in there and they made convenient excuses to dismiss that fact. I’ve made my case that while the persistent Nina base state is part of this, I’ve never denied that, but more is going on contributing here. If we have a total fail during a second Nino, one that did couple and produced the pattern we wanted…at that point I don’t have to say anything. “Scoreboard” should be plenty enough. Anyone still in denial isn’t going to be swayed by some novel I write on here so what’s the point? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z gfs Gfs vs euro around day 5, a lot to iron out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 yeah, it's not gonna do it this time. No 50/50 lobe like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Heisy said: 18z gfs Gfs vs euro around day 5, a lot to iron out . does euro still have that hold delay issue it had 20 years ago lol where it would hold the s/w in desert too long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still Well its 7 days out. Hopefully they will be in better agreement as we get closer.. euro has been pretty consisted last 3 or 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still my money is on the GFS. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Ji said: my money is on the GFS. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Ji said: my money is on the GFS. Of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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