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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has snow. I'm not sure why everyone is crying.

probably because some might think that this run was just a stop along the way to euro town.  on that logic 18z should be half of the 2-4 which was 6-8 at 6z...you know the drill

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Just now, Terpeast said:

CMC definitely trended SE, as has the GFS. 

Let's hope this is the compromise that the Euro gets to

Differences between runs are again with how shortwaves 2 and 3 interact and how strong they are. 6z gfs had a lot more interaction between them. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

CMC dives the TPV west and south into the backside of the trough.  GFS has it oriented E-W so it acts to flatten out on the gfs.

CMC108.webp

GFS 108.webp

Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range

Absolutely, we've seen the TPV modeled differently in location and orientation on almost every run of every model this week. Subtle differences having big impacts. 

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IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation. 

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Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range

I thought H5 looked good early on with the trough then the TPV stretched E-W and flattened the flow out in front.  Notice the CMC has that EURO kicker but it doesn't matter in this case.

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