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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

at hr18 the high is now 1050...the low is now 1007...both stronger than 6z.  yep.  

One thing to make note of regarding early frames and the evolution is what @psuhoffman was mentioning as to where the GFS camp and Euro camps diverge. The split happens about 60-72 hours into the evolution and how wave intensities are handled. That's absolutely something to watch on the 12z GFS and even on the secondary models (UK, CMC). The euro isn't the euro of old, but messing up evolution of energies 60hrs out would be unusual. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Early but that ridge out west is a little sharper. We need a deeper more neg trough. That might help. We will see

 

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok, at 42, ridging in the Pacific NW is a bit better, our s/w is more consolidated and slightly more wester

Keep up son!

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Early but that ridge out west is a little sharper. We need a deeper more neg trough. That might help. We will see

500 this does look better thus far at 78 with the western trough axis over western Montana getting more diggy

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The H5 at 90 is not nearly as good as the 6z... IMO

Agreed, the orientation of the trough and energies for phasing doesn't have the same alignment for clean phasing and giving a nice runway to climb the coast. If I didn't look at surface panels, I'd assume a worse outcome. 

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