Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[clskinsfan]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wide spread 2-5.  

And it would stick around for a while. I think we all would take that in a heartbeat. 

[nukeing]

I don't see anything to hate about a few area wide inches with temps solidly below freezing

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has snow. I'm not sure why everyone is crying.

probably because some might think that this run was just a stop along the way to euro town.  on that logic 18z should be half of the 2-4 which was 6-8 at 6z...you know the drill

[LP08]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

If we can stay on the right side... the B and W maps show a big hit

We are on the right side...

[yoda]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Through 96 it’s southeast of 0z, but it’s a big storm and it’s turning up the coast…

108 is 994 inside benchmark 

[stormtracker]

Dont know about "big hit", but the GGEM/CMC is a hit.   Might be the best I've seen of it so far

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

108 is 994 inside benchmark 

Yep, its FOLKS worthy, if only the CMC looked like the GFS and GFS showed the Canadian solution...I'd be a lot happier, but good to see it stay with a solid evolution. No kicker up in the PNW like Euro. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, CMC is good

[LeesburgWx]

Some will complain on here about the GFS cutting totals in half. Just saying...

[WxUSAF]

GGEM doesn’t look like a complete phase, but looks pretty good.

[Terpeast]

CMC definitely trended SE, as has the GFS. 

Let's hope this is the compromise that the Euro gets to

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Some will complain on here about the GFS cutting totals in half. Just saying...

2-5 area wide we'd all take right now. What people worry is it cuts in half, then if it cuts in half again...

[clskinsfan]

Canada ftw. Its a nice hit. Especially NE of DC

[TSSN+]

Models be like 

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A really early call would say this ends better. I’ll grab a towel just in case

This may be the worst post in history 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Terpeast said:

CMC definitely trended SE, as has the GFS. 

Let's hope this is the compromise that the Euro gets to

Differences between runs are again with how shortwaves 2 and 3 interact and how strong they are. 6z gfs had a lot more interaction between them. 

[LP08]

CMC dives the TPV west and south into the backside of the trough.  GFS has it oriented E-W so it acts to flatten out on the gfs.

[Buddy1987]

CMC clown maps look great. Let’s hope this actually happens. Would be good for most.

[Paleocene]

CMC full weenie map, lol

[WxUSAF]

GGEM is 6-9” right among 95. Gradient is over @usedtobes house. @psuhoffmanslightly fringed.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So basically...until we get to the short range, mentally treat Day 4 like Day 7-8 

Right now 24 hours and inside is only sure safety, even just inside 3 days has wild swings and differing final outcome 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Paleocene said:

CMC full weenie map, lol

Now we are talking!

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

CMC full weenie map, lol

This looks like a chattanooga choo choo, just saying for those old enthusiasts. The long stripe. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

CMC dives the TPV west and south into the backside of the trough.  GFS has it oriented E-W so it acts to flatten out on the gfs.

Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range

Absolutely, we've seen the TPV modeled differently in location and orientation on almost every run of every model this week. Subtle differences having big impacts. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Now we are talking!

its the GGEM though...that model gives us 200 inches of digital snow a year all to take it back 24 hours before the storm

[Solution Man]

Please hug a Canadian today

[WxUSAF]

IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation. 

[LP08]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range

I thought H5 looked good early on with the trough then the TPV stretched E-W and flattened the flow out in front.  Notice the CMC has that EURO kicker but it doesn't matter in this case.

[stormtracker]

Um, the GFS at 171...trying something...let's see