Warm Nose Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: That reminded me of the "AI" version of the Euro, which you can find here: https://charts.ecmwf.int I have no idea how accurate it is and all that, but it ran at 0Z and certainly looks better than the base Euro to my untrained eye. You can read more about it here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ Yeah, this ML one in particular shows a storm ... https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401120000&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401121200 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah, I noticed the Canadian had it, as did previous Euro runs when they had the storm closer in. It's probably something else.I think the gfs rotates the tpv west enough to allow amplification while euro dosent rotate it as far west… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Yeah, this ML one in particular shows a storm ... https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401120000&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401121200 So this is an AI model generated by the EMCWF based on the Euro data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: So this is an AI model generated by the EMCWF based on the Euro data? Here's your explanation: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/machine-learning-model-data Blog post here: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2023/rise-machine-learning-weather-forecasting The one I referenced uses Google's Deepmind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: That reminded me of the "AI" version of the Euro, which you can find here: https://charts.ecmwf.int I have no idea how accurate it is and all that, but it ran at 0Z and certainly looks better than the base Euro to my untrained eye. You can read more about it here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ Edit: The screenshot cut off, but that's at 18Z on Tuesday. That’s encouraging actually. WPC said that was missing yesterday and they wanted to see what it showed. It looks much more in-line with other guidance. I have no idea how useful it is, but if WPC wanted to see it, I’m glad it’s better for us. @wxmvpete? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself It's never just one thing. Subtle differences in the interaction between the AK wave and energy on the west side of the TPV plus PNA ridge orientation/axis is different between the 2 models. Hopefully all this analysis becomes a moot point soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 50 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This isn't the first time that Euro was out on its own too far SE and then corrected in 2 runs. Let's hope this precedent continues here. https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1357391753909850112?s=20 That’s what I keep saying to people. It’s classic mid-range Euro confusion. Happened in 13-15 a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Here's your explanation: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/machine-learning-model-data Blog post here: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2023/rise-machine-learning-weather-forecasting The one I referenced uses Google's Deepmind. If Deepmind is wrong we are in Deepshit 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Checked LWX AFD this morning... they are being careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Here's your explanation: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/machine-learning-model-data Blog post here: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2023/rise-machine-learning-weather-forecasting The one I referenced uses Google's Deepmind. 2 minutes ago, H2O said: If Deepmind is wrong we are in Deepshit Call it DeepSnow. Perhaps we'll have better snow forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Problem is storm type. Volatile NS, thin margins, and development at our latitude. Far far different that the recent fail that lifted out of the gulf. If you were around in 2013-15 winters we had a lot of this stuff and it was never resolved until 72 hours at best. Some of the events those winters actually popped up at 72-96hr leads with no previous signal. The goal posts haven't really changed. Somewhere between a complete whiff and a good storm. Any time you have a setup where models are developing snow basically overhead, don't get married to anything until that development is within 72 hours minimum. These snow events are very complicated from NWP perspective. They have a long history of being phantoms and booms. That said, this setup is our best of the season by far. But it won't be easy on the nerves if you track ops every 6 hours. One of them will almost always look worse or go the wrong way or show the fail option. Full agreement is a short range game So basically...until we get to the short range, mentally treat Day 4 like Day 7-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Nothing like a powerhouse 1051 HP sliding down into Montana at hr 63 on the Nam. That thing means business. This incoming airmass starting next week is something else seeing some of the projected highs toward next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Nothing like a powerhouse 1051 HP sliding down into Montana at hr 63 on the Nam. That thing means business. This incoming airmass starting next week is something else seeing some of the projected highs toward next weekend interested if the icon holds this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Ok thought it was too early discounting the outliers on both sides (cmc on one, euro on the other). I still think the op Euro is too suppressed at least for now. Things may change once the cutter gets out of here. There is some speculation about the euro playing to its bias of holding back energy. I am not even sure it still has that bias, that was like 3 versions ago, but I don't really see it. There are 3 waves rotating around the TPV, initially it was the first wave that was "the storm" but that has now become almost non existent. All guidance is now keying on 2/3. They are initially developing a low with that second wave then phasing in the 3rd which is the strongest of them. The problem I see with the euro is its stronger with wave 2 and weaker with wave 3. It's not holding as much energy back...and in essence wave 2 and 3 end up splitting the energy equally and so nothing comes of it. The better euro runs were when it was developing wave 2 with almost no interaction from wave 3. The other guidance was not showing much of a storm then because they were still keying on wave 1 which is washing out. A shift happened yesterday where all guidance shifted to waves 2/3 interacting. When that happened all other guidance shifted towards a wave 3 dominant scenario with a storm but the euro shifted to this nothing burger all waves split the energy and nothing comes of it scenario. I have no idea which is right but I don't think its simply the euro holding back too much, and I don't think that kicker is totally it either. I think its different with its energy trade off between waves 2 and 3. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, BristowWx said: interested if the icon holds this go around. There’s no telling with that thing LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z NAM is def in the gfs camp . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 84 hour NAM time: 06z GFS: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So basically...until we get to the short range, mentally treat Day 4 like Day 7-8 In this case, yes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: You're not wrong but until 0:0 is off the table, all other ratios don't excite me too much. What we really need to figure out is how to get the 12:0 ratio then we don't have to care about precip anymore. why not 30:0, go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: Because if anything other guidance has trended NW. Believe me I get it could very well end up being correct but there’s a reason WPC labeled it as an outlier. You can see the western trough axis is quite a bit different between the GFS and EURO so it logically makes sense why it would be more southeast. Guess we’re gonna find out who blinks first. I'm not sure this matters though because they are trending NW under a totally different paradigm than the euro sees that starts to veer off around hour 60. The other guidance have a much more amplified 3rd wave and weaker 2nd wave. Under that scenario there is room for the storm to track more NW. But if the euro is correct we never get to that scenario. The 2nd wave takes too much of the energy off, the 3rd wave is flat and positive tilted and there is no chance for the storm to even get going. What happens under one paradigm doesn't necessarily mean anything if that whole paradigm is wrong. If the euro is right about what those waves are going to look like around hour 60 there wont be a storm to track further NW. It will just be a series of weak arse waves off the SE coast until its way too far OTS to do us any good. We just have to hope that the euro is the one messing up the configuration of those waves not all other guidance. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In this case, yes. Yessir. All storms must be looked at individually. Models have strengths and weaknesses. From what I've seen, no model is good at nailing volatile NS setups beyond 3 days. All the meaninful development happens inside of that range. Getting the lead in right AND all the fancy stuff is a seismic butt ton of math lol. Climo and odds say a boom scenario is the least likely. Lots of history there. OTOH- we usually get some accum snowfall with setups like this. They aren't remembered because there's usually an underlying disappointment after "the mid range boom runs" lol. My total wag is most of us are good for a cold couple inches. Exactly how is above my pay grade. Lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: This isn't the first time that Euro was out on its own too far SE and then corrected in 2 runs. Let's hope this precedent continues here. https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1357391753909850112?s=20 That continued trending west, enough so that I got about 6" out here and DC/Baltimore was mostly rain, although that was one of the storms that drove me nuts and I swore "should have been" 3-6" for 95. Interesting catch, lets hope for a similar trend now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z NAM is def in the gfs camp . It has a pretty big h5 change at 78 over the previous at 84. But it’s the NAM so I don’t think it matters either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not sure this matters though because they are trending NW under a totally different paradigm than the euro sees that starts to veer off around hour 60. The other guidance have a much more amplified 3rd wave and weaker 2nd wave. Under that scenario there is room for the storm to track more NW. But if the euro is correct we never get to that scenario. The 2nd wave takes too much of the energy off, the 3rd wave is flat and positive tilted and there is no chance for the storm to even get going. What happens under one paradigm doesn't necessarily mean anything if that whole paradigm is wrong. If the euro is right about what those waves are going to look like around hour 60 there wont be a storm to track further NW. It will just be a series of weak arse waves off the SE coast until its way too far OTS to do us any good. We just have to hope that the euro is the one messing up the configuration of those waves not all other guidance. That is a great summary of a confusing situation. Deep down, everyone knows which one is right. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The spire model looks like the euro too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That is a great summary of a confusing situation. Deep down, everyone knows which one is right. I really don’t think the Euro has done as well as it used to. I could be wrong, but I don’t believe it has been upgraded for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Updated morning AFD from Mount Holly- A challenging forecast for the long term this morning. Ensemble and deterministic models indicate an upper level low located just east of Hudson Bay Monday will gradually circle over the bay and southwards of it into Wednesday night. While this occurs, an upper level trough axis over the northern central CONUS Monday is forecast to dig southeastwards with time before moving generally eastward thereafter. This trough axis will look to be directly over or near the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night before swinging through the northeastern CONUS perhaps during the time frame of Wednesday. At the surface level, this upper level pattern corresponds to high pressure in control of region Monday followed by coastal low pressure development off of the southeastern coast of the CONUS Monday night into Tuesday. Following development of the coastal low pressure system, the upper level pattern supports the coastal low moving northeastwards with time while strengthening due to increased baroclinic support. High pressure is likely to build in over the eastern CONUS thereafter as indicated by the upper level pattern. Though the coastal low pressure will remain the focus of the long term, it still remains too early to discuss the exact details regarding the development and track of the system. There is a large spread among deterministic guidance on the exact track the coastal low pressure will take, making for a challenging forecast. If the low stays closer to the eastern coast of the CONUS, it means our region could see precipitation Monday night through at least Tuesday night. If the low is further offshore, the region could see no precipitation at all. There is one detail where there is some confidence however. If coastal low pressure is able to bring precipitation to the region during the Monday night into Wednesday time frame, it will likely be in the form of mostly frozen precipitation for the region. The overall synoptic pattern indicates there will plenty of cold air available this time around to wrap into the system, i.e., a snow event may be on the horizon for the region. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 That continued trending west, enough so that I got about 6" out here and DC/Baltimore was mostly rain, although that was one of the storms that drove me nuts and I swore "should have been" 3-6" for 95. Interesting catch, lets hope for a similar trend nowI bet we end up flirting with mix or dry slot near the cities as well by the end of this. H5 h7 track on Ukie gfs def argue for it. Ccb sets up just NW of 95 on the GFS . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Rgem is in our camp as well, the euro is just wrong it has no support it’s gotta come around already lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Heisy said: Rgem is in our camp as well, the euro is just wrong it has no support it’s gotta come around already lol I like that the RGEM has the Monday snow showers. I root for the model that shows the most snow the quickest 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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