Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why? They are not human... if they see something, they are just not going to change because other models do not see it. I am not saying it is right... but you need to look at all models objectively and see where they are coming from. Because if anything other guidance has trended NW. Believe me I get it could very well end up being correct but there’s a reason WPC labeled it as an outlier. You can see the western trough axis is quite a bit different between the GFS and EURO so it logically makes sense why it would be more southeast. Guess we’re gonna find out who blinks first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The blue shrinks on the 06 EPS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: That's sorta surprising, would have expected a consensus to start forming by now instead of them growing more apart. Problem is storm type. Volatile NS, thin margins, and development at our latitude. Far far different that the recent fail that lifted out of the gulf. If you were around in 2013-15 winters we had a lot of this stuff and it was never resolved until 72 hours at best. Some of the events those winters actually popped up at 72-96hr leads with no previous signal. The goal posts haven't really changed. Somewhere between a complete whiff and a good storm. Any time you have a setup where models are developing snow basically overhead, don't get married to anything until that development is within 72 hours minimum. These snow events are very complicated from NWP perspective. They have a long history of being phantoms and booms. That said, this setup is our best of the season by far. But it won't be easy on the nerves if you track ops every 6 hours. One of them will almost always look worse or go the wrong way or show the fail option. Full agreement is a short range game 12 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This morning it is basically GFS/ICON vs. ECM/GEM . What is your preference? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, stormy said: This morning it is basically GFS/ICON vs. ECM/GEM . What is your preference? Did we lose the canadian? It was wrapped up at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Trying to figure out the differences on why the euro is doing what it’s doing. A big difference I’m seeing is at 300mb. There’s better separation of the jets coming on shore on the GFSWhich in turn leads to this…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Shad said: Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today. Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread Thread 3 1 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Shad said: Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hopefully the EPS and its parent will re-join the party later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 40 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: This seems like the best chance in years for a decent snow area wide. I would gladly take 3-6 and if it's more its a bonus. With the cherry being temps allowing it to actually stick around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially contributes to de-amplification of the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it, further de-amplifying. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive. My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Did we lose the canadian? It was wrapped up at 0z. The CMC ens is OK. The GEM op is lacking blue over D.C./ Augusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially de-amplifies the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive. My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, Shad said: Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today. Toast? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This isn't the first time that Euro was out on its own too far SE and then corrected in 2 runs. Let's hope this precedent continues here. https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1357391753909850112?s=20 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, Shad said: Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today. Dread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially contributes to de-amplification of the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it, further de-amplifying. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive. My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope. Still odd, because in that run, the TPV phases somewhat with the trailing piece, but in a previous 12z run yesterday they didn't phase as I pointed out - still same result. Either way, I think there's some error here. But I'm still worried that other guidance is missing that trailing piece or its strength. I just hope that Euro's bias in hanging too much energy in that trailing piece is at work. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This isn't the first time that Euro was out on its own too far SE and then corrected in 2 runs. Let's hope this precedent continues here. https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1357391753909850112?s=20 I believe the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 was one of those instances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Wow its like night and day!! why not to give up on the 20th. Right now it looks a little too NS dominant and that's definitely an issue, but there is plenty of time for that to change and its a beautiful setup in general if we can just get a more amplified STJ wave to come along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 52 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Head scratching.. would’ve thought with other guidance it would trend slightly better. Going the opposite way here. Pretty sure I read an AFD posted here earlier that stated the Euro didn't have data ingested and that would resume with the 12z run today? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Pretty sure I read an AFD posted here earlier that stated the Euro didn't have data ingested and that would resume with the 12z run today? What lol? Is that true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty sure I read an AFD posted here earlier that stated the Euro didn't have data ingested and that would resume with the 12z run today? That update said the new euro machine learning model didn't run for some reason. Regular Euro was fine I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: 4 minutes ago, Ji said: What lol? Is that true " The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could help with the model diagnostics." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: What lol? Is that true sounds like a bingo card space. "data indigestion" ...BINGO! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: " The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could help with the model diagnostics." This isn't part of the Euro itself. It's an ML model(s) that uses the Euro as an input to analyze and explain why the model sees what it does and 'learn' from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: " That reminded me of the "AI" version of the Euro, which you can find here: https://charts.ecmwf.int I have no idea how accurate it is and all that, but it ran at 0Z and certainly looks better than the base Euro to my untrained eye. You can read more about it here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ Edit: The screenshot cut off, but that's at 18Z on Tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself Yeah, I noticed the Canadian had it, as did previous Euro runs when they had the storm closer in. It's probably something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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