SnowenOutThere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 58 minutes ago, CAPE said: Let it finish dude lol And remember that the 10:1 ratios shown may be too low for this event too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ok, so WPC not favoring Euro’s non-storm scenario. Nice to see. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: And remember that the 10:1 ratios shown may be too low for this event too You're not wrong but until 0:0 is off the table, all other ratios don't excite me too much. What we really need to figure out is how to get the 12:0 ratio then we don't have to care about precip anymore. 14 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WPC for Days 4 and 5 and snippet of the disco - they don’t seem to favor the Euro’s solution. The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministicruns are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshoreof the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance andthe EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately theECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run forthe 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that couldhelp with the model diagnostics. ETA: Oops sorry, posed earlier too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Members over 2” ticked up to 23/30 for DC. I’ll take P15 please. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like 06z Euro would have been a bit better if it went past 90... hopefully the ensembles are better 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NBM keeps getting better 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, CAPE said: NBM keeps getting better This is incredibly important. NBM is a great tool to see trends in the means. The amount of data that is incorporated into the blend aids in a lot of probabilistic data and limits biases. If you guys recall, when the NBM kept trimming snow from the means on the lead up to the last event here, that was a sign that that the trend was moving the wrong direction and despite some of the guidance indicating a better result, it never wavered. This is probably one of the better ensemble tools to utilize when in the medium range and closer in. This is a great trend to see and will be paying close attention to this over the weekend. 27 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too Are you saying the euro caved? Huge if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 06z Euro would have been a bit better if it went past 90... hopefully the ensembles are better Hard to tell at 90. Really need to see how the shortwave energy coming ashore on the S coast of AK behaves beyond this point. Still wants to dig. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Ok Euro time to get with it I think looking at the UKIE, ICON, and GFS it is clear to me that the Euro is in its bias of holding energy or not handeling it correctly out west. Typically this happens in the southwestern United States though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too Doesn't the 6z and 18z euro only go out to 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Doesn't the 6z and 18z euro only go out to 90? Op runs yes. Ens goes out to 144. Still waiting for 6z ens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Are you saying the euro caved? Huge if true It didn't. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This is pretty major differences for 84-90hrs out. Euro is an improvement but it still wouldn’t have been close to the GFS. I think the euro will cave over the next 24 hours since most of the other data leans GFS evo side . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It didn't. Ok thought it was too early for the 6z ens. I’m discounting the outliers on both sides (cmc on one, euro on the other). I still think the op Euro is too suppressed at least for now. Things may change once the cutter gets out of here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This seems like the best chance in years for a decent snow area wide. I would gladly take 3-6 and if it's more its a bonus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is pretty major differences for 84-90hrs out. Euro is an improvement but it still wouldn’t have been close to the GFS. I think the euro will cave over the next 24 hours since most of the other data leans GFS evo side . If you compare the 6z Euro to the 0z Euro for the same timeframe, there isn't much difference wrt the key features. You are comparing apples to oranges here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Seems like this year there's some last minute shift, for better or worse, that occurs around HR90 on the guidance. 12z suite will be impactful today, IMO, fresh upper air data and the players are starting to get closer to the denser North American observation network. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I’m just catching up on posts since 9 pm and wonder when some of you sleep. Just based on following the models and learning from experts on this forum and SM for over 10 years, I’ve noticed that the Euro often has had a habit of sniffing out storms early, losing them in the mid-range, and then coming back. I remember this quite a bit in 2013-2015. I am feeling good about actually getting snow on Tuesday. Sleep is for human losers. We are snow weenies. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 43 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too You better look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z EPS a bit further southeast. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, CAPE said: 6z EPS a bit further southeast. Head scratching.. would’ve thought with other guidance it would trend slightly better. Going the opposite way here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, CAPE said: 6z EPS a bit further southeast. That's sorta surprising, would have expected a consensus to start forming by now instead of them growing more apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Head scratching.. would’ve thought with other guidance it would trend slightly better. Going the opposite way here. Why? They are not human... if they see something, they are just not going to change because other models do not see it. I am not saying it is right... but you need to look at all models objectively and see where they are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 25 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: This seems like the best chance in years for a decent snow area wide. I would gladly take 3-6 and if it's more its a bonus. That’s what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 LP strengthens some as it moves NE but too far offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If you compare the 6z Euro to the 0z Euro for the same timeframe, there isn't much difference wrt the key features. You are comparing apples to oranges here.Cape you may have misread me. I was stating that the euro and GFS are still on different hemispheres. I’m not worried yet. I think most guidance leans to a GFS like solution. Unless we see some major shifts on the other models I’m fairly confident euro will come around by the end of the day . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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