Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

your main focus last week was that the air mass out ahead of the storm was crap. This air mass is totally different so we have more wiggle room. This is not last weeks storm. If we cant get a snowstorm with a severe -NAO in mid January than what are we doing here. What usually would keep the 50 50 low locked in place?

 

 

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

50/50 ULLs usually form in mature patterns as the block is decaying. this is why I think the 19-20th has greater potential, not to diminish this threat

 

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What keeps a 50-50 low 'in place' is a true (rex) block. A dipole. We have that here, but the vortex part of the block isn't where we want it.

Agree with Brooklyn and CAPE here.  Ji, its complicated.  It's always a balancing act with multiple variables on either side of the scale.  The objective is to get a wave to track just under us with cold in place.  There are multiple ways to do that.  Some less complicated, some more so...we want to root for the least complicated way usually.  

Last time the general track of the wave was set in stone pretty far in advance.  It was a less noisy setup.  The track of the surface feature was perfect...but it was fairly weak and we didn't have any blocking in place to suppress the mid level warming ahead of the trough axis.  The one thing that could have fixed that was a cold thermal profile going in, I've seen much worse setups work but required more cold.  So IMO the simplest problem was not cold enough.  But we could have obsessed over the 100 other tiny details that could have been changed one way or another also.  

This time...the equation is different.  It's a much more amplified situation.  We have a colder airmass but we also have a really strong TPV centered right on top of us which could really amplify and pull a storm to our NW if other things don't go right.  Not every situation is the same and requires the same solution.  

[CAPE]

Its cold

[psuhoffman]

@Ji TLDR version...there are multiple ways for us to get F'd 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Its cold

I REALLY like that mean but I would have to dig into the members and see how we got that mean.  Is it the average of two camps...cutters and suppressed, which was a false singnal on the GEFS a day ago, I just didnt want to spoil the mood.  Or is there a genuine camp of "win" solutions in that mean.  Big difference.  Unfortunately I have to finish up some reports right now and wont get to really look that deep until later but curious about that.  

[SnowDreamer]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji TLDR version...there are multiple ways for us to get F'd 

I vote this for the next storm thread title. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I REALLY like that mean but I would have to dig into the members and see how we got that mean.  Is it the average of two camps...cutters and suppressed, which was a false singnal on the GEFS a day ago, I just didnt want to spoil the mood.  Or is there a genuine camp of "win" solutions in that mean.  Big difference.  Unfortunately I have to finish up some reports right now and wont get to really look that deep until later but curious about that.  

I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps.

Not a lot of suppressed options. I'd say genuine camp of "wins" vs. cutters.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps.

to illustrate this further... this is a NUTS median for 8 days out. This might be the highest it's been on the EPS period this year.

and it was a big jump up from 00z

[CAPE]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Not a lot of suppressed options. I'd say genuine camp of "wins" vs. cutters.

Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution. 

I agree with this, except I am not sure there is an easy path to a decent snow with a less amplified solution either.  And I don't just mean a HECS...if the STJ/NS energy misses the phase I don't see much of a path here.  Without a phase that STJ energy will get stretched and is washing out under the NS flow.  Nothing to turn the flow and we all know how a pure SWFE here goes with those 4,000 ft ridges to our SW.  There isn't room here for the STJ to go it alone.  We need phased.  SO imo the "easy" path to a win is root for that 50/50 feature to trend better then we can survive the phased solution.  If the 50/50 feature fails I think this has a VERY low bar.  Either a phased track to our NW or a really weak or completely non event would become the two most likely scenarios.  

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not a lot of suppressed options. I'd say genuine camp of "wins" vs. cutters.

23 members have me getting accumulated  snows in central md. Not bad for 6 days out. Im sure it will change a few times lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z.

Having a significant cluster of "wins" is a huge deal.  The GEFS mean looked similar yesterday but it was a false flag because it was a compromise between two bad solutions.  This indicates the euro thinks we have a legit shot.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with this, except I am not sure there is an easy path to a decent snow with a less amplified solution either.  And I don't just mean a HECS...if the STJ/NS energy misses the phase I don't see much of a path here.  Without a phase that STJ energy will get stretched and is washing out under the NS flow.  Nothing to turn the flow and we all know how a pure SWFE here goes with those 4,000 ft ridges to our SW.  There isn't room here for the STJ to go it alone.  We need phased.  SO imo the "easy" path to a win is root for that 50/50 feature to trend better then we can survive the phased solution.  If the 50/50 feature fails I think this has a VERY low bar.  Either a phased track to our NW or a really weak or completely non event would become the two most likely scenarios.  

Most likely path to victory is a phase but the timing has to be just right- around the Mississippi probably. If we get lucky and some lower heights squeeze out into the 50-50 region then there is more wiggle room.

[brooklynwx99]

here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow

[NorthArlington101]

It's also not a "false flag" in terms of temps. 850s look similar - little worse. 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow

EPS has nothing for this timeframe today 

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GFS offered another way to fail lol....fails to phase threat 1.   TPV stays west intially to suppress the next wave.  Then it does slide east into the perfect spot...but a NS SW dives down from the north pole and dives southwest!!!! and phases with a system in California and cuts off on the west coast pumping a huge ridge in the east before anything else can come along.   I have NEVER seen that before ever...a system that starts out over the north pole...with a trough in the east and an EPO ridge...dives southwest and cuts off along the west coast.  WTF

maybe Santa is headed to an awards show in LA or something

[Heisy]

here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow

It does look at the moment that there might be a pattern relaxation beyond the 22-23rd. Hopefully we’re able to take advantage during these two time frames


.

[Heisy]

EPS has nothing for this timeframe today 

Yea I think there mores of northern stream redeveloper threat around the 20th. Eps not really on that today, but GEFS was…


.

[Heisy]

Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps






.

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I think there are a couple positives already (even for the cities), though I still think it's possible the op loses the storm or more likely there are moderate to significant timing changes. 

Broadly speaking, I like the idea of a front end thump for the cities, even if the track is garbage.  These are typically 2-5" events.  

Also, maybe this time the mid levels hold and Parr's ridge cleans up.  There are a number of scenarios that are better for me and you than this past weekend.

 

I agree with everything you said, but "better" is a low bar given what the recent results have been lol.   

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps






.

I don’t think it will be much of a warm up..if anything it will be very transient. MJO imo goes very weakly in the warm phases which has support on olr maps. 
 

 

[winter_warlock]

Sterling has snow in the forecast here..  weird seeing from them this far out lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps






.

I see what you are saying, and historically I would be more excited...but given recent trends do we think that would still be "cold enough"?  Also, its a deamplifying pattern with no real thermal boundary in the east, just a big dome of decaying cold under the NS.  Not sure how likely getting an organized storm there would be.  Anything that amplified would seek out the real thermal boundary way up to our north.  So while its not the torch you might think looking at the H5 I am not enthused at the chances of snow there either.  

BUT...the pacific is already aligning into the PERFECT look by day 15 to begin the process of getting back to a good snowstorm threat window by early February, that is the best thing I take from that day 15.  

[psuhoffman]

Well this is it... we are getting the exact pattern we wanted from this Nino and its lining up exactly with our best snow climo.

Next 30 days on EPS

Temps 

If we don't get a lot of snow out of this it won't be because we didn't get the nino pattern we wanted.  

[psuhoffman]

Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

EPS has nothing for this timeframe today 

it’s more so that if a wave does get picked up (which is certainly the case), it will have a top tier synoptic pattern to work with

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet 

Unfortunately, the previous pattern voided North America of cold. 

[stormtracker]

40 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

true, but then it kind of comes down to expectations.  And understandably yours are generally higher given you average 200%+ of my climo.   I'm not really a HECS chaser.  I'd lock in a 3-4" front end thump just to get on the board

Same.  Remember the ol' 3 to 5/6 storms?  Those were the days

[stormtracker]

Ok, time for 18z GFS disappointment