CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Not sure anyone noticed, but last nights euro and todays had freezing rain for our regions. Guess the cold dome is strong enough . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 29 minutes ago, Ji said: your main focus last week was that the air mass out ahead of the storm was crap. This air mass is totally different so we have more wiggle room. This is not last weeks storm. If we cant get a snowstorm with a severe -NAO in mid January than what are we doing here. What usually would keep the 50 50 low locked in place? 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 50/50 ULLs usually form in mature patterns as the block is decaying. this is why I think the 19-20th has greater potential, not to diminish this threat 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: What keeps a 50-50 low 'in place' is a true (rex) block. A dipole. We have that here, but the vortex part of the block isn't where we want it. Agree with Brooklyn and CAPE here. Ji, its complicated. It's always a balancing act with multiple variables on either side of the scale. The objective is to get a wave to track just under us with cold in place. There are multiple ways to do that. Some less complicated, some more so...we want to root for the least complicated way usually. Last time the general track of the wave was set in stone pretty far in advance. It was a less noisy setup. The track of the surface feature was perfect...but it was fairly weak and we didn't have any blocking in place to suppress the mid level warming ahead of the trough axis. The one thing that could have fixed that was a cold thermal profile going in, I've seen much worse setups work but required more cold. So IMO the simplest problem was not cold enough. But we could have obsessed over the 100 other tiny details that could have been changed one way or another also. This time...the equation is different. It's a much more amplified situation. We have a colder airmass but we also have a really strong TPV centered right on top of us which could really amplify and pull a storm to our NW if other things don't go right. Not every situation is the same and requires the same solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Its cold 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @Ji TLDR version...there are multiple ways for us to get F'd 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, CAPE said: Its cold I REALLY like that mean but I would have to dig into the members and see how we got that mean. Is it the average of two camps...cutters and suppressed, which was a false singnal on the GEFS a day ago, I just didnt want to spoil the mood. Or is there a genuine camp of "win" solutions in that mean. Big difference. Unfortunately I have to finish up some reports right now and wont get to really look that deep until later but curious about that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji TLDR version...there are multiple ways for us to get F'd I vote this for the next storm thread title. 3 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, psuhoffman said: I REALLY like that mean but I would have to dig into the members and see how we got that mean. Is it the average of two camps...cutters and suppressed, which was a false singnal on the GEFS a day ago, I just didnt want to spoil the mood. Or is there a genuine camp of "win" solutions in that mean. Big difference. Unfortunately I have to finish up some reports right now and wont get to really look that deep until later but curious about that. I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps. Not a lot of suppressed options. I'd say genuine camp of "wins" vs. cutters. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps. to illustrate this further... this is a NUTS median for 8 days out. This might be the highest it's been on the EPS period this year. and it was a big jump up from 00z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Not a lot of suppressed options. I'd say genuine camp of "wins" vs. cutters. Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution. I agree with this, except I am not sure there is an easy path to a decent snow with a less amplified solution either. And I don't just mean a HECS...if the STJ/NS energy misses the phase I don't see much of a path here. Without a phase that STJ energy will get stretched and is washing out under the NS flow. Nothing to turn the flow and we all know how a pure SWFE here goes with those 4,000 ft ridges to our SW. There isn't room here for the STJ to go it alone. We need phased. SO imo the "easy" path to a win is root for that 50/50 feature to trend better then we can survive the phased solution. If the 50/50 feature fails I think this has a VERY low bar. Either a phased track to our NW or a really weak or completely non event would become the two most likely scenarios. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not a lot of suppressed options. I'd say genuine camp of "wins" vs. cutters. 23 members have me getting accumulated snows in central md. Not bad for 6 days out. Im sure it will change a few times lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z. Having a significant cluster of "wins" is a huge deal. The GEFS mean looked similar yesterday but it was a false flag because it was a compromise between two bad solutions. This indicates the euro thinks we have a legit shot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with this, except I am not sure there is an easy path to a decent snow with a less amplified solution either. And I don't just mean a HECS...if the STJ/NS energy misses the phase I don't see much of a path here. Without a phase that STJ energy will get stretched and is washing out under the NS flow. Nothing to turn the flow and we all know how a pure SWFE here goes with those 4,000 ft ridges to our SW. There isn't room here for the STJ to go it alone. We need phased. SO imo the "easy" path to a win is root for that 50/50 feature to trend better then we can survive the phased solution. If the 50/50 feature fails I think this has a VERY low bar. Either a phased track to our NW or a really weak or completely non event would become the two most likely scenarios. Most likely path to victory is a phase but the timing has to be just right- around the Mississippi probably. If we get lucky and some lower heights squeeze out into the 50-50 region then there is more wiggle room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It's also not a "false flag" in terms of temps. 850s look similar - little worse. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji TLDR version...there are multiple ways for us to get F'd I think there are a couple positives already (even for the cities), though I still think it's possible the op loses the storm or more likely there are moderate to significant timing changes. Broadly speaking, I like the idea of a front end thump for the cities, even if the track is garbage. These are typically 2-5" events. Also, maybe this time the mid levels hold and Parr's ridge cleans up. There are a number of scenarios that are better for me and you than this past weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 re euro ens mean. High temps are low 30s the afternoon prior to the storm which I would consider a pretty big deviation from climo at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I REALLY like that mean but I would have to dig into the members and see how we got that mean. Is it the average of two camps...cutters and suppressed, which was a false singnal on the GEFS a day ago, I just didnt want to spoil the mood. Or is there a genuine camp of "win" solutions in that mean. Big difference. Unfortunately I have to finish up some reports right now and wont get to really look that deep until later but curious about that. I'm guessing they will be 50% longer than they need to be 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow EPS has nothing for this timeframe today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: This sounds funky old fashioned but it’s almost like the gears don’t mesh and grind the same way anymore. That in turn seems to make the 3-5 days not solid anymore and we are down to 1-3 for solid accuracy I think people were a little too hard on you given how most of us don't use models the way they're supposed to be utilized - even though we generally know better When we're sitting here at a week out analyzing discrete mesoscale features (like rain/snow lines) using a singular global model (myself included), I think we need to be a little more tolerant of people who don't indulge in this stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS has nothing for this timeframe today Hopefully there will be changes over the next 11 days. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 12z GFS offered another way to fail lol....fails to phase threat 1. TPV stays west intially to suppress the next wave. Then it does slide east into the perfect spot...but a NS SW dives down from the north pole and dives southwest!!!! and phases with a system in California and cuts off on the west coast pumping a huge ridge in the east before anything else can come along. I have NEVER seen that before ever...a system that starts out over the north pole...with a trough in the east and an EPO ridge...dives southwest and cuts off along the west coast. WTF maybe Santa is headed to an awards show in LA or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flowIt does look at the moment that there might be a pattern relaxation beyond the 22-23rd. Hopefully we’re able to take advantage during these two time frames . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EPS has nothing for this timeframe today Yea I think there mores of northern stream redeveloper threat around the 20th. Eps not really on that today, but GEFS was…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 40 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I think there are a couple positives already (even for the cities), though I still think it's possible the op loses the storm or more likely there are moderate to significant timing changes. Broadly speaking, I like the idea of a front end thump for the cities, even if the track is garbage. These are typically 2-5" events. Also, maybe this time the mid levels hold and Parr's ridge cleans up. There are a number of scenarios that are better for me and you than this past weekend. I agree with everything you said, but "better" is a low bar given what the recent results have been lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps . I don’t think it will be much of a warm up..if anything it will be very transient. MJO imo goes very weakly in the warm phases which has support on olr maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Sterling has snow in the forecast here.. weird seeing from them this far out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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