Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

You mean this one?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

snip from it, reference our storm

Recent models remain agreeable with showing shortwave energy

pivoting through the southern side of the broad and deep trough

serving to form a surface low near the East Coast Tuesday into

Wednesday. 12/18Z and now the 00Z model guidance generally shows

low pressure developing near the Southeast Coast by early Tuesday,

but with some spread in the formation/track that is amplified by

the fact that even relatively small differences would have

considerable sensible weather differences. With the 12/18Z suite

of models, the GEFS and EC mean showed similar low tracks

northward across the western Atlantic and a fairly strong system

reaching New England or the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday.

12/18Z GFS runs were most like the means, so favored that cluster

for the WPC forecast. The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic

runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore

of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and

the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the

ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for

the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could

help with the model diagnostics. Meanwhile the 12Z CMC showed

reasonable alignment in the track though a bit faster than

preferred, but now the 00Z CMC has a track considerably inland

that would spread rain to some Mid-Atlantic areas. The 00Z GFS

also shows differences from its previous runs, with a dual

structure to the low early Wednesday with some low pressure

hanging near the DelMarVa, and not consolidating until later

Wednesday. Overall, the forecast details remain low confidence as

the storm track spread is still high.

[SnowenOutThere]

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Let it finish dude lol

And remember that the 10:1 ratios shown may be too low for this event too

[WxUSAF]

Ok, so WPC not favoring Euro’s non-storm scenario. Nice to see. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

And remember that the 10:1 ratios shown may be too low for this event too

You're not wrong but until 0:0 is off the table, all other ratios don't excite me too much. What we really need to figure out is how to get the 12:0 ratio then we don't have to care about precip anymore. 

[nj2va]

WPC for Days 4 and 5 and snippet of the disco - they don’t seem to favor the Euro’s solution.

The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic
runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore
of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and
the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the
ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for
the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could
help with the model diagnostics.

ETA:  Oops sorry, posed earlier too.

 

[nj2va]

Members over 2” ticked up to 23/30 for DC.  I’ll take P15 please.

[yoda]

 

[LeesburgWx]

Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too

[yoda]

Looks like 06z Euro would have been a bit better if it went past 90... hopefully the ensembles are better

[CAPE]

NBM keeps getting better

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

NBM keeps getting better

This is incredibly important. NBM is a great tool to see trends in the means. The amount of data that is incorporated into the blend aids in a lot of probabilistic data and limits biases. If you guys recall, when the NBM kept trimming snow from the means on the lead up to the last event here, that was a sign that that the trend was moving the wrong direction and despite some of the guidance indicating a better result, it never wavered. This is probably one of the better ensemble tools to utilize when in the medium range and closer in. This is a great trend to see and will be paying close attention to this over the weekend. 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too

Are you saying the euro caved? Huge if true

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like 06z Euro would have been a bit better if it went past 90... hopefully the ensembles are better

Hard to tell at 90. Really need to see how the shortwave energy coming ashore on the S coast of AK behaves beyond this point. Still wants to dig.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok Euro time to get with it 

I think looking at the UKIE, ICON, and GFS it is clear to me that the Euro is in its bias of holding energy or not handeling it correctly out west.  Typically this happens in the southwestern United States though. 

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too

Doesn't the 6z and 18z euro only go out to 90?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Doesn't the 6z and 18z euro only go out to 90?

Op runs yes. Ens goes out to 144. Still waiting for 6z ens.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Are you saying the euro caved? Huge if true

It didn't. 

[Heisy]

This is pretty major differences for 84-90hrs out. Euro is an improvement but it still wouldn’t have been close to the GFS. I think the euro will cave over the next 24 hours since most of the other data leans GFS evo side


.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It didn't. 

Ok thought it was too early for the 6z ens. I’m discounting the outliers on both sides (cmc on one, euro on the other). 

I still think the op Euro is too suppressed at least for now. Things may change once the cutter gets out of here. 

[Ravens94]

This seems like the best chance in years for a decent snow area wide. I would gladly take 3-6 and if it's more its a bonus. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is pretty major differences for 84-90hrs out. Euro is an improvement but it still wouldn’t have been close to the GFS. I think the euro will cave over the next 24 hours since most of the other data leans GFS evo side


.

If you compare the 6z Euro to the 0z Euro for the same timeframe, there isn't much difference wrt the key features. You are comparing apples to oranges here.

[Eskimo Joe]

Seems like this year there's some last minute shift, for better or worse, that occurs around HR90 on the guidance. 12z suite will be impactful today, IMO, fresh upper air data and the players are starting to get closer to the denser North American observation network. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m just catching up on posts since 9 pm and wonder when some of you sleep. 
Just based on following the models and learning from experts on this forum and SM for over 10 years, I’ve noticed that the Euro often has had a habit of sniffing out storms early, losing them in the mid-range, and then coming back.  I remember this quite a bit in 2013-2015.  I am feeling good about actually getting snow on Tuesday.  

Sleep is for human losers. We are snow weenies. 

[stormy]

43 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looks like we may be reeling this one in. Euro looks like GFS now with snow amounts. I’ll be damned. Those ensembles look beautiful too

You better look again

[CAPE]

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, CAPE said:

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

Head scratching.. would’ve thought with other guidance it would trend slightly better. Going the opposite way here. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, CAPE said:

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

That's sorta surprising, would have expected a consensus to start forming by now instead of them growing more apart. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Head scratching.. would’ve thought with other guidance it would trend slightly better. Going the opposite way here. 

Why?  They are not human... if they see something, they are just not going to change because other models do not see it.  I am not saying it is right... but you need to look at all models objectively and see where they are coming from.

[SnowGolfBro]

25 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

This seems like the best chance in years for a decent snow area wide. I would gladly take 3-6 and if it's more its a bonus. 

That’s what she said.

[CAPE]

LP strengthens some as it moves NE but too far offshore.