psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ECMWF's bias to hold energy back and overamp could initially hurt trough consolidation. honestly, I'm not really sure why it's doing what it's doing. the CMC and UKMET both have that piece crashing into AK and still become amplified, so that's not it in a vacuum maybe the holding back energy thing...because I was comparing it to the GGEM just now and you're right about the kicker, but the GGEM is significantly faster than the euro and already has the SW up near PA while the Euro is way back in the MS valley. That creates a spacing issue with that kicker maybe? THe GFS is slower like the euro but that doesn't matter as much because the kicker isn't there. So maybe there are a few moving parts here but the idea is if the kicker is there then the progression can't be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon looks decent to me. Way better than 0z if you like snow. Sharp rn/sn line right along 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Welp euro back by itself for now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Oh 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Welp euro back by itself for now. Shame it’s such a disjointed look until things come together nicely in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, yoda said: Oh Better than 0z was for sure. That would be just dandy for me. More snow than I have seen in a bit of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Shame it’s such a disjointed look until things come together nicely in Maine. It shows like a foot for parts of the area. lol 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Better than 0z was for sure. That would be just dandy for me. More snow than I have seen in a bit of time Seeing how 0z is was nothing… I’d say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, TSSN+ said: It shows like a foot for parts of the area. lol I know but when you see it up north it’s a real sweet roll. But yes this is a muffin with butter. I’m starved as you can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 very nice hit but can be get 2 in a row this one and 2 days later. one model showed another L popping off on the stalled front down south. not sure if thats still a go as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’m just catching up on posts since 9 pm and wonder when some of you sleep. Just based on following the models and learning from experts on this forum and SM for over 10 years, I’ve noticed that the Euro often has had a habit of sniffing out storms early, losing them in the mid-range, and then coming back. I remember this quite a bit in 2013-2015. I am feeling good about actually getting snow on Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gfs looks significantly more amped than 0z so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m just catching up on posts since 9 pm and wonder when some of you sleep. Just based on following the models and learning from experts on this forum and SM for over 10 years, I’ve noticed that the Euro often has had a habit of sniffing out storms early, losing them in the mid-range, and then coming back. I remember this quite a bit in 2013-2015. I am feeling good about actually getting snow on Tuesday. I will catch up on my sleep come Summer. I got model runs to keep up with, affiliate marketing to study and now I am also learning algebra at Khan Academy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs looks significantly more amped than 0z so far. lots more vorticity and surface precip out to hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gfs for the win 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ya gfs is about the lay the smack down. Just hope it’s not too amped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 As Randy would say… Folks! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This run is going to be excellent. Intial wave bringing light to moderate snow, secondary about to go off. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Lol huge ccb at 117 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gfs for the win and we take 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Mod snow at 120 Still snowing at 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, yoda said: Mod snow at 120 She’s a beaut Clark 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like 8-12 area wide. Cold cold smoke on the backside. Beautiful storm depiction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, yoda said: Ok Euro time to get with it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS looks like the UKMet from last night 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Still a mess of vorticity lol. GFS pops a low associated with the initial energy that runs out in front then pops a second one over NC as that NS energy digs in and phases. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still a mess of vorticity lol. GFS pops a low associated with the initial energy that runs out in front then pops a second one over NC as that NS energy digs in and phases. There’s multiple paths to victory with this setup, but you can see how it could easily fail too. I’m staying cautiously optimistic. I feel once this current storm occludes, we will have a better picture to draw from. That needs to be situated first. I will say the Arctic airmass is legit, so if we get something to pop to our south, there should be a good chance for cold smoke either through 50% of any event or even closer to 80% if all breaks right, especially the northern and western folks. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ahhh ty GFS for that snowgasm!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: There’s multiple paths to victory with this setup, but you can see how it could easily fail too. I’m staying cautiously optimistic. I feel once this current storm occludes, we will have a better picture to draw from. That needs to be situated first. I will say the Arctic airmass is legit, so if we get something to pop to our south, there should be a good chance for cold smoke either through 50% of any event or even closer to 80% if all breaks right, especially the northern and western folks. Strong signal on the ens means for at least a moderate (mostly) snow event. The EPS has more of a light event for now. The primary issue with the Euro is the sharp piece of energy that it digs southward along the coast of Western Canada downstream of the ridge building into AK- that initially de-amplifies the PNA ridge, but later in the progression it tries to phase it with a piece of TPV energy, and that turns the trough more positive at the point where it needs to be neutral. Lets just hope it squeezes more of that energy northward in future runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB 6Z GEFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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