brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ECMWF is better. more consolidated trough, taller PNA, higher downstream heights 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Kicker coming out of AK is weaker again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Oh well...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Meh..H5 changed, but sfc is still dry...will end up like 12z most likely. Looks like another whiff yeah...It's a total disaster...oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’m honestly shocked the euro did this again tonight after the other guidance. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this honestly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ECMWF is better. more consolidated trough, taller PNA, higher downstream heightsYou Said that at 12z and it was it's worst run in 6 years Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Naw, minor improvements from 12z but this isn't gonna get it done. It's significantly flatter than everything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I’m honestly shocked the euro did this again tonight after the other guidance. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this honestly . Me too. I thought for sure it would come back at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 There is a reason it's called Dr no. So disappointing but no surprise. Of course it was going to do this Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Ji said: You Said that at 12z and it was it's worst run in 6 years Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk it literally is an improvement. why are you up my ass lmao 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Kicker status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it literally is an improvement. why are you up my ass lmao It hasn't snowed at all in 2 years maybe lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it literally is an improvement. why are you up my ass lmao Because he is a dick. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It hasn't snowed at all in 2 years maybe lolBut every run is epic and mint. Something isn't adding upSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh well...next Dang I was hoping that at the very least not get worse...but this gave zilch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It hasn't snowed at all in 2 years maybe lol what exactly would you like me to do about that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Dang I was hoping that at the very least not get worse...but this gave zilch!There used to be a time where the ukmet would be an early preview of the euroApparently now it's the icon Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ji said: But every run is epic and mint. Something isn't adding up Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk at least charge me rent if i'm going to live in your head, dude 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Comparing the euro to all other guidance...I think its pretty simple actually. Everything else is just significantly more amplified with that trailing SW diving in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’m honestly shocked the euro did this again tonight after the other guidance. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this honestly . it's not THAT much better than any of the other models at this point. it's an outlier and should be treated as such until other models move towards it or it caves 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh well...next We prefer you say FOLKS... 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: But every run is epic and mint. Something isn't adding up Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk He is definitely an optimist...but we have enough pessimists on here so... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Not even close in the PNA territory . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Not even close in the PNA territory .If it was the other way around we would be totally discounting the euroSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's not THAT much better than any of the other models at this point. it's an outlier and should be treated as such until other models move towards it or it caves I am not favoring the euro per say, but what is disappointing is all other guidance finally started to converge somewhat tonight. Had the euro come in line my confidence really would have increased. You're right the euro is not so much better that you take it when its in opposition to all other guidance (it does have the ICON lol). But it is still the best model and if one was going to be the crazy uncle I would rather it not be the euro. Confidence remains low until it gets back in the fold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not favoring the euro per say, but what is disappointing is all other guidance finally started to converge somewhat tonight. Had the euro come in line my confidence really would have increased. You're right the euro is not so much better that you take it when its in opposition to all other guidance (it does have the ICON lol). But it is still the best model and if one was going to be the crazy uncle I would rather it not be the euro. Confidence remains low until it gets back in the fold. true, but the EPS could easily show that the OP is well south and east like it did at 12z. we'll see if that's the case again. i have a sneaking suspicion that it probably is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not even close in the PNA territory . I know @Terpeast pointed that out but then noted it was there even on the good euro runs yesterday. But I was thinking, those runs were keying on a different wave than all guidance is now. That wave is suppressed across all guidance now. But that lead wave had more separation and was developing on the front side of the trough and didn't necessarily need as much amplification to work, it was almost like a glorified anafront wave. This situation is more dynamic but requires a more amplified wave to work, its having to energize a stagnant boundary further southeast. Maybe once the euro realized that lead wave is not the one and started to key on the trailing wave...that is when that kicker became an issue. So it might be that kicker after all that is the issue. I don't see any other reason why the wave is so much less amplified on the euro v all other guidance. That is the one factor that is so different and sticks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: true, but the EPS could easily show that the OP is well south and east like it did at 12z. we'll see if that's the case again. i have a sneaking suspicion that it probably is I guess but I thought people were making way too much of the 12z and 18z eps. I thought they both looked like crap and supported an OTS solution. The mean was propped up by a few amplified outliers but the probabilities for snow and precip were very low. THere were just enough amplified solutions to make the mean look better than the op but the majority camp was a coastal scraper solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 the ECMWF's bias to hold energy back and overamp could initially hurt trough consolidation. honestly, I'm not really sure why it's doing what it's doing. the CMC and UKMET both have that piece crashing into AK and still become amplified, so that's not it in a vacuum 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 At least the euro only has the icon on its side currently. GFS CMC Ukie combo is nice for our area but I agree with PSU… would rather have the euro on our side than not. It’s the best model for a reason. Would like to see it make a legit move toward the other camp sooner than later. Good news is we’re still 4 days out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now