psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol) you Ninja'd me. But I agree the way the op went down was risky, it was stuck between keying on two waves and almost ran off with the first one. It had to redevelop and jump west to pull off what it did, that's dangerous and even if everything showed that 12 hours out I would be nervous. That is bust city right there. But the GEFS suggests maybe the trailing wave can be dominant with a less messy development. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: could the increased spread here be due to members starting to toss around different locations and timescales for cyclogenesis? Looks to me as the spread is showing a potentially slower system with more stragglers behind the main group 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Look up.Ha great timing Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ukie H5, we def have another 24-36 hours until we see some more consensus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ukie H5, we def have another 24-36 hours until we see some more consensus . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit... 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Probably the biggest thing that got me excited about this winter was a Feb 2003 type storm. We get that I will call it a winter Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Curves right around the outer banks so sensually, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit... You got about 1hour before the fun police arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 UKMet is surprising 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet...Where did you live? I got 28 inches of snow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 UKMet is surprising Remember when the euro would be similar to the unmet?Me neither Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit...Jb 96. Never forgetSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Much angst over the op (at first) but the GEFS continues its happy trend west, at least I would argue this was a tick west. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: 7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet... 7 inches of sleet? dang I remember a storm sometime during my childhood we got so much sleet it looked like snow. id guess 4 inchs. You can still walk and drive in sleet vs frz rain so it wasnt a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 & inches of sleet? dang I remember a storm sometime during my childhood we got so much sleet it looked like snow. id guess 4 inchs. You can still walk and drive in sleet vs frz rain so it wasnt a big deal.He might be thinking of Feb 2007Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Much angst over the op (at first) but the GEFS continues its happy trend west, at least I would argue this was a tick west. overall trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 "ukie says no snow for me and dt" - Jxdama in the early aughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging shortwave 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 "ukie says no snow for me and dt" - Jxdama in the early aughtsLolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging shortwave Don't forget the stronger west based - nao and slightly better +pna ridge axis. What's not to like? (Psu please dont answer that wasn't meant for you ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GEPS snowfall looks a lot better than 12Z... 3-4" region wide on the mean. The GEM looks like a warm outlier against its own ensemble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Don't forget the stronger west based - nao and slightly better +pna ridge axis. What's not to like? (Psu please dont answer that wasn't meant for you ) I think that this could be a bit northern stream focused, so I would urge caution down here. however, there can easily be region-wide major storm potential with that general synoptic pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging shortwave tasty Omega block over Baffin Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 "ukie says no snow for me and dt" - Jxdama in the early aughtsColin is 43 nowSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The cold is incredible on GEFS. Goes below freezing Sunday evening, hr 72. Not a moment back above freezing through 228 and the cold gets refreshed then as well! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Ji said: Colin is 43 now Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk we're so old lol. I was only 28 when JB horribly busted on March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: The cold is incredible on GEFS. Goes below freezing Sunday evening, hr 72. Not a moment back above freezing through 228 and the cold gets refreshed then as well! That divisional round game is gonna be cold...awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I was 31 when DT said it was physically impossible for Dec 5th 2003 to get north of the m/d line. Time flies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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