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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol)

you Ninja'd me.  But I agree the way the op went down was risky, it was stuck between keying on two waves and almost ran off with the first one.  It had to redevelop and jump west to pull off what it did, that's dangerous and even if everything showed that 12 hours out I would be nervous.  That is bust city right there.  But the GEFS suggests maybe the trailing wave can be dominant with a less messy development.

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1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

could the increased spread here be due to members starting to toss around different locations and timescales for cyclogenesis?
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh126_trend.thumb.gif.62df591d9681bfde03b0636d52309907.gif

Looks to me as the spread is showing a potentially slower system with more stragglers behind the main group

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Probably the biggest thing that got me excited about this winter was a Feb 2003 type storm. We get that I will call it a winter

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7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet...

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26 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet...

7 inches of sleet? dang I remember a storm sometime during my childhood we got so much sleet it looked like snow. id guess 4 inchs. You can still walk and drive in sleet vs frz rain so it wasnt a big deal.

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& inches of sleet? dang I remember a storm sometime during my childhood we got so much sleet it looked like snow. id guess 4 inchs. You can still walk and drive in sleet vs frz rain so it wasnt a big deal.
He might be thinking of Feb 2007

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging shortwave

ezgif-7-261538000b.thumb.gif.5eb7b439ff76f4d6aea7140abfe94084.gif

Don't forget the stronger west based - nao and slightly better +pna ridge axis. What's not to like? (Psu please dont answer that wasn't meant for you :P)

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don't forget the stronger west based - nao and slightly better +pna ridge axis. What's not to like? (Psu please dont answer that wasn't meant for you :P)

I think that this could be a bit northern stream focused, so I would urge caution down here. however, there can easily be region-wide major storm potential with that general synoptic pattern

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