VA Mad Man Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So JB is actually a TV series that did an over the top plot line and has since declined in quality? I think you meant jump the gun. Thinking Jenkins needs to google "jump the shark".....it's a real reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. I disagree about the GFS and Euro trending the same way. This solution by the GFS was totally opposite of the Euro. Tonight's GFS keyed on another feature and was 12 hours slower than its own 18z run. Euro was simply squashed. I actually feel really good on everyone' chances. Just way too early to be overly concerned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If it hangs back later, we might be able to do a stronger storm, because that piece of the Polar Jet is rotating SW in Canada https://ibb.co/ZBPR9Qy This makes the most sense to me establishing just the right block typical stuff around here if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Another note, the storm is again changing characteristics related to which wave will do what. When things like this happen we know we do not have the final picture. I hope the final becomes a better one than worse one. As of now, we do not know anything. It seems like, no matter what, an area of snow will be possible in the region. Who gets what is completely unknown. Now I am just being captain obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 On the bright side regarding the cmc, at least it shows this a couple days later… More potential . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I disagree about the GFS and Euro trending the same way. This solution by the GFS was totally opposite of the Euro. Tonight's GFS keyed on another feature and was 12 hours slower than its own 18z run. Euro was simply squashed. I actually feel really good on everyone' chances. Just way too early to be overly concerned. I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Heisy said: On the bright side regarding the cmc, at least it shows this a couple days later… More potential . But I am loling at what it spit out at the surface That is hilarious...it must assume we're in Canada, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not a disaster if you want to see snow. But def not as exciting as 12z Precip at 132 is still actually decent. So this would be long duration light snow with 850s -10C . Just .05ph is 0.8 after 16 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good gfs run, let’s lock in a moderate event with no precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 One thing that I really like seeing is the precipation firmeld is very broad. Lighter snows spread well north and west of the LP center. As of now those of us further north are not fighting a sharp cutoff if the more SE solutions comes to fruition. Not going to take a lot of liquid to produce several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 00z GEFS prob more amped than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This is a better setup. I like this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Could be the beginning of a two-camp fight in the GEFS for where the low is primarily based out of/timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later Like you said until the cutter is out the way there will be more ebbs and flows. Having the cold available with the arctic boundary really helps us. I just can't see this missing us completely. Gut feelings says moderate storm. Fingers crossed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Right where we want it at hour 228 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Like you said until the cutter is out the way there will be more ebbs and flows. Having the cold available with the arctic boundary really helps us. I just want see this missing us completely. Gut feelings says moderate storm. Fingers crossed. Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Probably the biggest thing that got me excited about this winter was a Feb 2003 type storm. We get that I will call it a winter Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z GEFS almost no difference at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Right where we want it at hour 228 on the GFS. Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential I think this one has big potential, but yeah, that one would have the sky is the limit potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS almost no difference at 120 Actually looks a tad better at 132 than 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Actually looks a tad better at 132 than 18z. Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is a better setup. I like this run 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian) 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential Agree. I love the setup for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Terpeast said: Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol) could the increased spread here be due to members starting to toss around different locations and timescales for cyclogenesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS almost no difference at 120 I like the 0z GEFS more, and I liked the 18z GEFS a lot! It has more members keying on that second wave...but actually has a cleaner phase and gets the coastal going sooner without that weird jump thing where the initial wave almost takes the boundary off and the low has to redevelop west. That was a really messy progression on the op. But the GEFS indicates a move towards the slower progression with the 3rd wave being dominant but a cleaner coastal development. If we actually can get the 3rd wave to work it has the highest upside. Way less risk of a cutter or thermal issues, more room to amplify, stronger NS wave... It moved towards a better scenario imo. I don't know what to make of the GGEM though, hopefully its just off on a tangent. Not that unusual for the ggem. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 . 10 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ukmet?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ukmet?Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkLook up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Heisy said: . Consensus, check back in 2/3 days cause we don’t know wtf is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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