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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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26 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet...

7 inches of sleet? dang I remember a storm sometime during my childhood we got so much sleet it looked like snow. id guess 4 inchs. You can still walk and drive in sleet vs frz rain so it wasnt a big deal.

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& inches of sleet? dang I remember a storm sometime during my childhood we got so much sleet it looked like snow. id guess 4 inchs. You can still walk and drive in sleet vs frz rain so it wasnt a big deal.
He might be thinking of Feb 2007

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don't forget the stronger west based - nao and slightly better +pna ridge axis. What's not to like? (Psu please dont answer that wasn't meant for you :P)

I think that this could be a bit northern stream focused, so I would urge caution down here. however, there can easily be region-wide major storm potential with that general synoptic pattern

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OK I'm back...

After digesting all the 0z guidance and ensembles... if the euro can get on board tonight we might finally have consensus.  The GGEM op is a major outlier even among its own ensembles.  UKMET is the most amplified solution which is no shock if you follow the UKMET at all.  But other than the GGEM op everything else is within a more narrow envelope of solutions now tonight.  If the euro comes in with something within the same envelope in 20 mins my confidence that we have a good chance to end the streak will go up significantly. 

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8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

That was december 2001.  We were at WWBB or maybe weather.com.  JB kept promising us vodka cold and I hit 81 on January 30th 2002

 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

I still remember when Keith Allen said pd 2003 was going to be rain. Ignored your Pittsburgh rule

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I remember reading Gary Gray and his long posts breaking down each model run before PD2. I had just turned 30. 20 years in the blink of an eye!

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