Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Take the ggem and gfs blend and we got something Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast@stormtracker it actually moved towards Heisys trailing wave idea. And sorta pulled it off in a messy way. This was a big change I’ll reserve my judgement until the rest of 0z. But my fear is we get stuck between solutions and all 3 waves rotating around just run interference with each other. We need one to be dominant. The lead can’t imo. But we’ve seen runs that work now with either the 2nd or 3rd. Yeah and these small details out west prob won't be resolved for a while. I'm hanging in there. Let's hope the Euro is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not a weather map you usually see. Its not exactly terrible by any means... remember guys its still 5 days out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I don’t know why the negativity. For me, this evolution is more likely to produce a big storm that the previous scenarios. That sw is digging. Get it digging a little further west with a little better tilt and that’s a whopper IMO. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: LOL! GFS will be in Bermuda next run and CMC will be in Buffalo at this rate. All joking aside a lot to figure out with multiple pieces on the board as others have alluded to with cutter and then west coast. Hopefully tomorrow we will start to have some better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Wasn't as bad as the pbp....it's not iconish Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk It was initially. It’s a totally different wave than the one that hit us on 18z run. It squashed that then develops the one behind it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS, not very convincing... I count 11 out of 50 that hit us good and last night I think it was 15 so still there for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Verbatim it's how you'd think it would be. 3 to 5 for the city S and E More over St Marys county, northern neckI know suppression is more of a risk than the opposite this go around with the tpv squashing things, but if someone asked where we’d prefer things to be 5 days out… we’d say SE of us 99% of the time. Perhaps models are pressing the tpv a bit too much and we end up with an areawide 3-6” type event. I’d way rather be on the cold side of things with room for things to move N / be more amped than praying for less amped / more progressive as it rarely plays out that way. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It's reliving last weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Cmc is wild but I'll take it. Worst thing is what icon showsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Mood ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie. I’m thinking Alabama would be a perfect spot for development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GGEM GFS consensus anyone?Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up. Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if you're expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Jesus it seems like every model run the mood swings in here are worse then a menopausal woman!! Lol Guys dont hug the models!! They will wiggle especially 5 days out!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie. way hmmm what is with the 300 mile jump back west to the coast. This run is wonky and clearly is confused and missing something. 997 way out then moves 300 miles west to 992 then bombs away to 979 to 970 something is amiss here. I am willing to bet data is missing somewhere and or there is clear confusion with the storm tomorrow night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. Would a stronger cutter=stronger tpv press (hence a squashed solution)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if you're expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive.Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Mood ... I think it’s the opposite. Dejected thinking it was totally OTS, but then psyched about actual ( and maybe plowable) snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. There is never model chaos till we approach a winter storm. Look at the rain a few days ago and tomorrow....hardly a waver in the forecast Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would a stronger cutter=stronger tpv press (hence a squashed solution)? Not only that, but also the track and how the block evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 There is never model chaos till we approach a winter storm. Look at the rain a few days ago and tomorrow....hardly a waver in the forecast Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkOr… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. .I was watching the play by Play which was a massacre. Someone said icon situation. But after having seen it for myself...I was surprised at the outcome after the pbpSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If it hangs back later, we might be able to do a stronger storm, because that piece of the Polar Jet is rotating SW in SE Canada (to possibly phase.. or at least close to it) https://ibb.co/ZBPR9Qy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 How much snow for New Orleans? . 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if your expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive. This right here-People just got fooled by the bad start of the run when it looked totally squashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. This is exactly what I think, but I am always a Deb on complicated setups. I get that worried feeling that the wave snows south, blows up out at sea and curls back in for NE. Leaves us a hole. Maybe that curl back is a stretch but I had a moment thinking of December 2010, I think, with the big old hole over us. Painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. .What? I got 3 inches of rain. The wind was a bust though Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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