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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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GGEM GFS consensus anyone?

Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up.

Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday.

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For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. 

And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. 

We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 

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2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie.

way 

hmmm what is with the 300 mile jump back west to the coast.  This run is wonky and clearly is confused and missing something.  997 way out then moves 300 miles west to 992 then bombs away to 979 to 970 something is amiss here.  I am willing to bet data is missing somewhere and or there is clear confusion with the storm tomorrow night into Saturday.

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. 

And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. 

We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 

Would a stronger cutter=stronger tpv press (hence a squashed solution)?

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I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if you're expectations are realistic.  A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive.

Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here.


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For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. 
And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. 
We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 
There is never model chaos till we approach a winter storm. Look at the rain a few days ago and tomorrow....hardly a waver in the forecast

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There is never model chaos till we approach a winter storm. Look at the rain a few days ago and tomorrow....hardly a waver in the forecast

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Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome.


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Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here.


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I was watching the play by Play which was a massacre. Someone said icon situation. But after having seen it for myself...I was surprised at the outcome after the pbp

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5 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if your expectations are realistic.  A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive.

This right here-People just got fooled by the bad start of the run when it looked totally squashed.

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. 

And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. 

We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 

This is exactly what I think, but I am always a Deb on complicated setups. I get that worried feeling that the wave snows south, blows up out at sea and curls back in for NE. Leaves us a hole. Maybe that curl back is a stretch but I had a moment thinking of December 2010, I think, with the big old hole over us. Painful 

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Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome.


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What? I got 3 inches of rain. The wind was a bust though

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5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. 

And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. 

We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 

I disagree about the GFS and Euro trending the same way. This solution by the GFS was totally opposite of the Euro. Tonight's GFS keyed on another feature and was 12 hours slower than its own 18z run. Euro was simply squashed. I actually feel really good on everyone' chances. Just way too early to be overly concerned. 

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Another note, the storm is again changing characteristics related to which wave will do what. When things like this happen we know we do not have the final picture. I hope the final becomes a better one than worse one. As of now, we do not know anything. It seems like, no matter what, an area of snow will be possible in the region. Who gets what is completely unknown. Now I am just being captain obvious 

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I disagree about the GFS and Euro trending the same way. This solution by the GFS was totally opposite of the Euro. Tonight's GFS keyed on another feature and was 12 hours slower than its own 18z run. Euro was simply squashed. I actually feel really good on everyone' chances. Just way too early to be overly concerned. 

I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later

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One thing that I really like seeing is the precipation firmeld is very broad. Lighter snows spread well north and west of the LP center. As of now those of us further north are not fighting a sharp cutoff if the more SE solutions comes to fruition. Not going to take a lot of liquid to produce several inches.

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