Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Mood ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie. I’m thinking Alabama would be a perfect spot for development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 GGEM GFS consensus anyone?Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up. Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if you're expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Jesus it seems like every model run the mood swings in here are worse then a menopausal woman!! Lol Guys dont hug the models!! They will wiggle especially 5 days out!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie. way hmmm what is with the 300 mile jump back west to the coast. This run is wonky and clearly is confused and missing something. 997 way out then moves 300 miles west to 992 then bombs away to 979 to 970 something is amiss here. I am willing to bet data is missing somewhere and or there is clear confusion with the storm tomorrow night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. Would a stronger cutter=stronger tpv press (hence a squashed solution)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if you're expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive.Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Mood ... I think it’s the opposite. Dejected thinking it was totally OTS, but then psyched about actual ( and maybe plowable) snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. There is never model chaos till we approach a winter storm. Look at the rain a few days ago and tomorrow....hardly a waver in the forecast Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would a stronger cutter=stronger tpv press (hence a squashed solution)? Not only that, but also the track and how the block evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 There is never model chaos till we approach a winter storm. Look at the rain a few days ago and tomorrow....hardly a waver in the forecast Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkOr… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. .I was watching the play by Play which was a massacre. Someone said icon situation. But after having seen it for myself...I was surprised at the outcome after the pbpSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 If it hangs back later, we might be able to do a stronger storm, because that piece of the Polar Jet is rotating SW in SE Canada (to possibly phase.. or at least close to it) https://ibb.co/ZBPR9Qy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 How much snow for New Orleans? . 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if your expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive. This right here-People just got fooled by the bad start of the run when it looked totally squashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. This is exactly what I think, but I am always a Deb on complicated setups. I get that worried feeling that the wave snows south, blows up out at sea and curls back in for NE. Leaves us a hole. Maybe that curl back is a stretch but I had a moment thinking of December 2010, I think, with the big old hole over us. Painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. .What? I got 3 inches of rain. The wind was a bust though Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So JB is actually a TV series that did an over the top plot line and has since declined in quality? I think you meant jump the gun. Thinking Jenkins needs to google "jump the shark".....it's a real reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. I disagree about the GFS and Euro trending the same way. This solution by the GFS was totally opposite of the Euro. Tonight's GFS keyed on another feature and was 12 hours slower than its own 18z run. Euro was simply squashed. I actually feel really good on everyone' chances. Just way too early to be overly concerned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If it hangs back later, we might be able to do a stronger storm, because that piece of the Polar Jet is rotating SW in Canada https://ibb.co/ZBPR9Qy This makes the most sense to me establishing just the right block typical stuff around here if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Another note, the storm is again changing characteristics related to which wave will do what. When things like this happen we know we do not have the final picture. I hope the final becomes a better one than worse one. As of now, we do not know anything. It seems like, no matter what, an area of snow will be possible in the region. Who gets what is completely unknown. Now I am just being captain obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On the bright side regarding the cmc, at least it shows this a couple days later… More potential . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I disagree about the GFS and Euro trending the same way. This solution by the GFS was totally opposite of the Euro. Tonight's GFS keyed on another feature and was 12 hours slower than its own 18z run. Euro was simply squashed. I actually feel really good on everyone' chances. Just way too early to be overly concerned. I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, Heisy said: On the bright side regarding the cmc, at least it shows this a couple days later… More potential . But I am loling at what it spit out at the surface That is hilarious...it must assume we're in Canada, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not a disaster if you want to see snow. But def not as exciting as 12z Precip at 132 is still actually decent. So this would be long duration light snow with 850s -10C . Just .05ph is 0.8 after 16 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Good gfs run, let’s lock in a moderate event with no precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 One thing that I really like seeing is the precipation firmeld is very broad. Lighter snows spread well north and west of the LP center. As of now those of us further north are not fighting a sharp cutoff if the more SE solutions comes to fruition. Not going to take a lot of liquid to produce several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 00z GEFS prob more amped than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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