baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 So the SE trend paused at 18z. Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting. but no reason in entertaining that until we pass the spring predictability barrier anyway All 5 examples sucked in DC. Last one was 3”. The only thing interesting would be the weenie meltdowns in here. We haven’t had a snowy La Niña in 24 years! And the only 2 in the last 50 years were +pdo -QBO winters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 gfs trended opposite direction from euro today, but with 18z euro/eps that may have stopped. We’ll see what they decide to do next 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just because I hate myself that much about a month ago I looked at where we were likely heading with QBO, enso, PDO, AMO and solar. And I used the same matrix I always use to identify the 5 best analogs. There is a reason I didn’t share. I figured I’d keep my nightmares to myself. But since you asked. here ya go Analog h5 analog temps DC Avg snow 3” sweet dreams My gut feeling is differentI’m looking at winters after moderate ninos95-96 04-05 2010-1187-88 66-67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ji said: My gut feeling is different I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos 95-96 04-05 2010-11 87-88 66-67 We seem to be hitting -NAO's more often, but they are being overwhelmed. I think this +Nao/+pna-epo .. or -Nao/-pna+epo correlation is going to hold. If you look at the clouds... about 2-3 years ago we starting getting more cloud thickness. I think that is a long term graduation program. We still have a ways to go to detox all this snow-melt seasons, but I think we are trending toward something more favorable a few years down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Encouraging tweethttps://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1745617893574791311?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Encouraging tweethttps://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1745617893574791311?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Who is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 51 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing As a heads up, these maps are resent to include our hemispheric fronts created from our Alaska desk. The fronts over the CONUS by our day shift medium range forecaster (Rausch, if you look at the Fronts tab on the homepage) is identical compared to this one. The new fronts and pressure from night shift likely won't make the web for a couple more hours, and the overnight forecaster would use the 12/18Z guidance as their foundation for this next set of fronts/pressures forecasts. Usually these fronts and pressures have to be sent out before the new suite of 00Z guidance comes in. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 21 minutes ago, Ji said: My gut feeling is different I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos95-96 04-05 2010-1187-88 66-67 I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, wxmvpete said: As a heads up, these maps are resent to include our hemispheric fronts created from our Alaska desk. The fronts over the CONUS by our day shift medium range forecaster (Rausch, if you look at the Fronts tab on the homepage) is identical compared to this one. The new fronts and pressure from night shift likely won't make the web for a couple more hours, and the overnight forecaster would use the 12/128Z guidance as their foundation for these forecasts. Usually these fronts and pressures have to be sent out before the new suite of 00Z guidance, in this case, guidance comes in. Got it, thanks for the clarification. Tangentially related, I read a couple of AFDs noting the suppressed 12z/18z euro track but called it an outlier and didn’t want to jump on it yet, just monitoring that trend for now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 22 minutes ago, Ji said: My gut feeling is different I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos95-96 04-05 2010-1187-88 66-67 This isn’t a moderate nino though, it’s super. Aren’t Nina’s more common after strong or super ninos? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 also, way out there, but this is a good overrunning setup on the GEFS. departing Arctic air, -EPO, TPV nearby, and a potent southern stream vort i can see an overrunning event as the pattern totally decays. although there is a 500mb zonal ridge, surface cold air can easily remain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 00z NAM at 84hr vs 90hr 18z GFS... looks better on the NAMhttps://ibb.co/bmg6rjL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 00z NAM at 84hr vs 90hr 18z GFS... looks better on the NAMhttps://ibb.co/bmg6rjL Yea I noticed at 57 on Nam compared to gfs the whole setup at 500 was better so that’s a good start to the night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. You are already right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: 00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. . It doesn’t come out for another hour by the time our storm is in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw Translation besides it's hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 This isn’t a moderate nino though, it’s super. Aren’t Nina’s more common after strong or super ninos?I don’t think it’s super Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Translation besides it's hot?Means shite is going to blow up by the coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Translation besides it's hot? I'm reading it as... the warmer the SST's (Sea Surface Temps) the moisture for the L to tap into, which the arctic air on our side of the front will wring out as sn+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 LOL. I love DT… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Once again this week NOAA has more colors on their national map than a box of 64 Crayola... https://www.weather.gov (64 Crayola was what ever lad in elementary wanted when I was a young-in) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time. 3 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time. So JB is actually a TV series that did an over the top plot line and has since declined in quality? I think you meant jump the gun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time. Jb has 5 analogs that he rotates in his playlist. 57-58 65-66 95-96 0203 09-10Then he analogs the 1993 superstorm once a year 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So JB is actually a TV series that did an over the top plot line and has since declined in quality? I think you meant jump the gun. No I meant exactly what I said. He does an over the top plot line EVERY threat. And he had been in decline since 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No I meant exactly what I said. He does an over the top plot line EVERY threat. And he had been in decline since 2003 He did pretty well in 09/10 but since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Rgem looks decent at end of run. Let’s go boys, let’s reel it closer tonight . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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