Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Here is my early preview of my winter 2024-25 forecast. 2010-11 and 2004-05 were not bad winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 If the gfs caves it’s tonight. It’s pretty reliable within a certain time frame and if we can get last 00z and 12z tomorrow we’re good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. That's awful It’s like 100 times better than 12z 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure if anyone has noticed this, but it’s an important aspect that’s not settled and it’s closer to initialization than our actual storm. Check out the PNA ridge. Euro camp has a wave embedded here in the flow which actually impacts things very much. Here is 18z control vs 18z GFS. One is not like the other, and it’s not even close. Euro has a kicker, gfs does not. That’s the type of large scale feature we should see a cave from one side very soon, probably the GFS Uhhhh… . Just checked back at previous euro runs, and they all had that feature even when they had the closer track. So I’m less sure now that it makes a difference, unless the kicker is getting stronger and faster. The atmosphere up that way is pretty chaotic so I don’t think any of the models are right about what will happen up there. May be even more of a wildcard than the cutter’s evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 12 minutes ago, HighStakes said: @psuhoffmanThe 1/22/87 was one of my favorites. I think you're few years younger than me so I'm not sure how much you remember about the storm and the forecast leading u to it. My best recollection was that it was poorly forecasted. I believe there was a lot of uncertainty right up to game time. Most calls for the Baltimore area was for 2-4 with some 3-6 with a change to rain. Pretty sure schools started out with a 2 hour delay then changed to closed. By mid-morning light snow transitioned into heavy snow. By noon temperatures began falling making it evident there would be no changeover. Snow remained heavy hour after hour. Rates were at least 2 inches an hour at times. There was thunder snow during the afternoon. NWS played catch up all day. 3-6 became 4-8 then 6-12 and finally 12-18. Snow tapered off by evening with totals where I lived 1 mile north of the beltway in Pikesville/Owings Mills in the 16-18 range. BWI was officially 12. Phenomenal storm which for me had scaled down similarities to the 83 storm. 83 was colder and of course had much higher totals but 87 was similar in duration and sustained snowfall intensity rates. Also heck of an arctic shot behind the storm which led to perhaps one of the driest snows I've ever experienced just 3 days later on Superbowl Sunday. That follow-up storm gave me about 6 of cold smoke powder. Our current area was probably fringed a bit lol. with 4 or so. Just to the south and southeast got much heavier amounts. Great little stretch of intense winter that would essentially be it for the winter other than the Feb. 87 wet snow paste job. I remember they sent us to school in NJ expecting rain. I have a vivid memory of boarding a bus in a very chaotic early release while it was pouring snow and getting deep. I know from reading analysis of that storm they expected the mid level warmth to push further NW given the lack of a high but the low tracked a little further east and was so intense that dynamic cooling offset the warming until the dryslot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s like 100 times better than 12z this. I’d much rather see that than 18z keep going towards its 12z ‘where the storm at’ idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I remember they sent us to school in NJ expecting rain. I have a vivid memory of boarding a bus in a very chaotic early release while it was pouring snow and getting deep. I know from reading analysis of that storm they expected the mid level warmth to push further NW given the lack of a high but the low tracked a little further east and was so intense that dynamic cooling offset the warming until the dryslot. Translation: heavy rain in 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s like 100 times better than 12z Your right. I guess 12z didn't really even have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 WB 18Z EPS, not very convincing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 hours ago, Heisy said: . I think you slowed it down some as to not induce seizures at the same rate. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ji said: If the gfs caves it’s tonight. It’s pretty reliable within a certain time frame and if we can get last 00z and 12z tomorrow we’re good Bad shit can happen at 6z…wake up, take a leak, check 6z, put whiskey in coffee…seen it happen 100,000 times already this winter alone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 2010-11 and 2004-05 were not bad winters Just because I hate myself that much about a month ago I looked at where we were likely heading with QBO, enso, PDO, AMO and solar. And I used the same matrix I always use to identify the 5 best analogs. There is a reason I didn’t share. I figured I’d keep my nightmares to myself. But since you asked. here ya go Analog h5 analog temps DC Avg snow 3” sweet dreams 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS, not very convincing... Still a wide range of solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: About .2”. Can you do a 12z comparison please? and maybe add in the prior 6z and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Can you do a 12z comparison please? and maybe add in the prior 6z and 0z It is not as good as 0Z.. WB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: It is not as good as 0Z.. WB. I'm interested in seeing the qpf trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 35 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting Looks like some psychedelic art to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS, not very convincing... But when the probability maps have been encouraging, how has that worked out? Bottom line is not to put much stock into these probability maps, because they are very rarely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I just think it's a good sign that the kicker seemed to at least relax a bit at 18z, even if it didn't give us a huge hit. Honestly, wouldn't be the worst if some weak kicker (much weaker than 12z euro) stuck around to prevent over amping it and risking getting too much of what the GFS is selling - there's still enough time to lose this to the NW even if right now we're worried about suppression. I know that makes it more complicated but at least right now the entire subforum is within the goalposts on it, so if we can just trend inward to the meeting point of models, we're sitting quite nicely I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 WB OZ compared to 18Z EPS 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ compared to 18Z EPS Notice the heaviest precip trending southeast from the 0z run to 12z. (18z hasn't updated yet) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Notice the heaviest precip trending southeast from the 0z run to 12z. (18z hasn't updated yet) Agreed EPS trended SE today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Nina's after a Nino are actually a myth. Quote Since 1948, The MAM ONI to SON ONI has gone >+1.1 19 times (this is the 20th time). I had previously thought there was a strong tendency for ENSO-state to reverse the next year, but ENSO is probably more of a 1+ year continuum, albeit seasonal things like typical late-Winter weakening.. Of those 19 events, 8/19 (42%) saw the same ENSO state the following year [+14 months NDJ ONI], 6/19 (32%) were Neutral, and 5/19 (26%) reversed to the opposite ENSO state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing Is there any discussion on this or just as-is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ compared to 18Z EPS Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting No it will suck real bad down here. Cant speak to your backyard though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it Even alone 0.25 on a QPF mean all snow at day is 5 is good. And it’s better being on the NW side of the envelope than on the SE side of a snow potential with raging southerly mid level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Even alone 0.25 on a QPF mean all snow at day is 5 is good. And it’s better being on the NW side of the envelope than on the SE side of a snow potential with raging southerly mid level flow. And if the euro is suppressed, that 0.25 is quite possibly coming into a much colder environment with ratios better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it I thought 12Z was about the same as 18z so to be more explicit EPS mean is SE of where it was at OZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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