Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel Maybe a trip to Spokane where my brother lives. They’ve been KILLING it with nina winters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 18z euro There are too many moving parts for me to project much. But the SW that becomes the kicker on the 12z is weaker. The wave we’re watching is hanging back a bit more and the tpv is slightly less suppressive. So all good trends. But how much difference it would have made I don’t know. Remember the 12z op was pretty awful. It had almost no wave at all so we needed more than subtle improvements. It ended too soon to say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 5 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel Looks like a pretty good forecast. I'd bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel I already cancelled next winter. -PDO +QBO past solar max Nina. You don’t want the analogs to that. Just focus on the next 2 months! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I already cancelled next winter. -PDO +QBO past solar max Nina. You don’t want the analogs to that. Just focus on the next 2 months! Yeah, so have I. I don’t know if I’ll even bother doing a full outlook for it unless either enso or pdo suddenly flip. Maybe a 4 bullet point outlook with a one-liner statement instead of a 30 page report. I’ll probably invest that time into planning a winter trip out west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Amazing this look has been showing since I noted the gfs had hints of it on Jan 5! And we tend to bash these models more often than not. Those twin systems in Jan '87 were so awesome. I was 16 at the time, living in Springfield. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Back to jan 16-17, I’ll see what tonight’s NWS AFDs have to say. Will be interesting to see how much stock they put into the 12z euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Looks wintery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, frd said: Looks wintery That's around the time when the MJO would cycle back through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 19 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, Scraff said: ETA - My fault wrong thread. Thought this was the Panic Room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Back to jan 16-17, I’ll see what tonight’s NWS AFDs have to say. Will be interesting to see how much stock they put into the 12z euro We seem to be on a precip heater...that's the main reason I'm bullish. I noticed last night there was a flood warning along the Monacacy, which isn't surprising because creeks around Gambrill have been flowing nicely since the last gully washer. I'm actually right next to an extension of Carroll Creek and even that's flowing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 @psuhoffmanThe 1/22/87 was one of my favorites. I think you're few years younger than me so I'm not sure how much you remember about the storm and the forecast leading up to it. My best recollection was that it was poorly forecasted. I believe there was a lot of uncertainty right up to game time. Most calls for the Baltimore area was for 2-4 with some 3-6 with a change to rain. Pretty sure schools started out with a 2 hour delay then changed to closed. By mid-morning light snow transitioned into heavy snow. By noon temperatures began falling making it evident there would be no changeover. Snow remained heavy hour after hour. Rates were at least 2 inches an hour at times. There was thunder snow during the afternoon. NWS played catch up all day. 3-6 became 4-8 then 6-12 and finally 12-18. Snow tapered off by evening with totals where I lived 1 mile north of the beltway in Pikesville/Owings Mills in the 16-18 range. BWI was officially 12. Phenomenal storm which for me had scaled down similarities to the 83 storm. 83 was colder and of course had much higher totals but 87 was similar in duration and sustained snowfall intensity rates. Also heck of an arctic shot behind the storm which led to perhaps one of the driest snows I've ever experienced just 3 days later on Superbowl Sunday. That follow-up storm gave me about 6 of cold smoke powder. Our current area was probably fringed a bit lol. with 4 or so. Just to the south and southeast got much heavier amounts. Great little stretch of intense winter that would essentially be it for the winter other than the Feb. 87 wet snow paste job. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some would complain. I remember after that Feb storm I traveled from near Philly to Harpers Ferry for my cousin’s baptism. We left the day after the storm early morning. By the time we got to WV there was nothing but patches in shade left. I remember I said to my uncle “we had a foot of snow I’m surprised you didn’t get as much” and he said “we had 18” but it all melted today it was so warm”. That is exactly as it happened. 14" in Front Royal overnight. All gone by evening that day. Schools open the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight Does it matter that the contours shifted south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 28 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel Ji take some captain Kirk vibes bro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 18z 12z So basically the entire sub forum is less than .1" qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Not sure if anyone has noticed this, but it’s an important aspect that’s not settled and it’s closer to initialization than our actual storm. Check out the PNA ridge. Euro camp has a wave embedded here in the flow which actually impacts things very much. Here is 18z control vs 18z GFS. One is not like the other, and it’s not even close. Euro has a kicker, gfs does not. That’s the type of large scale feature we should see a cave from one side very soon, probably the GFS Uhhhh…. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: So basically the entire sub forum is less than .1" qpf? That’s a 6 hour QPF panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: So basically the entire sub forum is less than .1" qpf? About .2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Not sure if anyone has noticed this, but it’s an important aspect that’s not settled and it’s closer to initialization than our actual storm. Check out the PNA ridge. Euro camp has a wave embedded here in the flow which actually impacts things very much. Here is 18z control vs 18z GFS. One is not like the other, and it’s not even close. Euro has a kicker, gfs does not. That’s the type of large scale feature we should see a cave from one side very soon, probably the GFS Uhhhh… . Yeah I pointed that out earlier today. thing is, canadian had it too, just not as strong and further back. What the euro showed didn’t make sense to me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, so have I. I don’t know if I’ll even bother doing a full outlook for it unless either enso or pdo suddenly flip. Maybe a 4 bullet point outlook with a one-liner statement instead of a 30 page report. I’ll probably invest that time into planning a winter trip out west. Here is my early preview of my winter 2024-25 forecast. 2 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure if anyone has noticed this, but it’s an important aspect that’s not settled and it’s closer to initialization than our actual storm. Check out the PNA ridge. Euro camp has a wave embedded here in the flow which actually impacts things very much. Here is 18z control vs 18z GFS. One is not like the other, and it’s not even close. Euro has a kicker, gfs does not. That’s the type of large scale feature we should see a cave from one side very soon, probably the GFS Uhhhh… . If that kicker is modeled more accurately by the Euro, it certainly flattens the flow and dampens out our wave, not really having any chance at the phase the GFS is now onboard showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: Here is my early preview of my winter 2024-25 forecast. to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting. but no reason in entertaining that until we pass the spring predictability barrier anyway 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 18z control bumped up a bit. This is probably what the OP would have generally shown outside 90hrs. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is my early preview of my winter 2024-25 forecast. So Merry Christmas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z control bumped up a bit. This is probably what the OP would have generally shown outside 90hrs. . Lol. That's awful 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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