Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[stormy]

We're on an 18z GFS high right now................. Where will we be at 6 am if Dr. No persists???

 

[LeesburgWx]

With a mean 3-4” region wide, I feel great. And tomorrow is Friday so we aren’t too far out.

[Duca892]

Please hold at 00z 

[konksw]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was a flush hit for 95!  

We can’t get a much better run for 90% of this sub than that.  But I sympathize that it wasn’t as great for the eastern shore.  

Flush hit for 95 this many days out means cold rain by the day of.

[Terrapinwx]

Chances of getting an inch went up dramatically on the Gefs. Shows less of a concern for mixing in the cities too


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[jaydreb]

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, jaydreb said:

100% opposite of the eps!

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

20/30 have 2"+ in DC.  I'll take it.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

P14 or P29 ftw 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

P14 or P29 ftw 

One thing for sure seeing that…I have no frickin idea what will actually happen.  

[Weather Will]

I really think this won't lock in until 0Z Sunday.  Let tomorrow's storm completely clear.

[Deck Pic]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mean of all the guidance is a nice event for us. Solid place to be 5 days out. Hopefully euro jumps back onboard at 0z or 12z tomorrow.

Since the 18z euro ensembles go out to 144, I think we'll get a feel for whether the 12z op was just a wonky run.  

For side by side purposes, here is 6z ens mean and 12z ens mean. 

Maybe add about 0.10" to 6z since the run truncates at 144

6z

 

12z

[Deck Pic]

22 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Chances of getting an inch went up dramatically on the Gefs. Shows less of a concern for mixing in the cities too


.

Am I the only one who is completely ignoring what type of map this is and pretending it is 24 hour snowfall?

[understudyhero]

5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Am I the only one who is completely ignoring what type of map this is and pretending it is 24 hour snowfall?

I thought it was mm or something. I mean I am not going to hate what it shows, but if that >1 was a bigger number, it would have been better. 

[jaydreb]

Weather Will is slacking.  
 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, SoCoWx said:

Or Richmond. Or Hampton Roads.

Sorry. I’ve always been DC/Baltimore metro centric with my posts and analysis. Maybe part of that is I lived in the DC metro area for 10 years before moving up here. And it’s because that seems to be where the vast majority of this forum is centered.  I never never say it was a great run when it shows me with 8” and DC rain. 

Besides I was mostly just piggy backing on da @Ji and @stormtrackerword play.  I’d probably prefer the 12z solution better not to deal with the threat of mix anywhere near us. It was a better run for more people but less upside in the flush hit zone. But now we’re splitting hairs on a 5 day forecast. 
 

I wish EVERYONE in here could get a flush hit. I’d gladly take a gfs solution shifted 30 miles east where maybe I get 6” instead of 9” but @CAPE can get 6” instead of 3!  As long as I get enough to use my snowblower for the first time in a few years I’ll be happy!  
 

But the truth is this is unlikely to be intense enough to have that expended a snow shield even if the more amplified solutions are right. Very few storms are.   But I guess I focus on DC and when I see them get a flush hit my instruct says good run. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No way gfs loses this. It’s not a great model but its usually reliable at 102 hours

Are you telling us or trying to convince yourself? 

[stormtracker]

Subtle changes on the 18z Euro at H5..  Ridging out west is better so far, SW pulled a hair southwester

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

More amped is precarious especially for I-95 east without a locked in 50-50 low(not happening) and the associated confluence to place the surface HP in a favorable spot. Probably need something in between this outcome and the Euro op. Kind of goes without saying lol. 

It is risky but it can work. I’m shocked how similar the setup is to Jan 22 1987 given its nearly the same time of year and that was one of my top analogs!  


There was no high in front of that one.  It had a little wave rotate around ahead of the anchor vortex but the key was that the trough remained positive tilted until the partial phase with the stj in the southeast. That way once the storm starts to get pulled north it won’t track inside where we need it.  But it’s a very similar progression to what the gfs just did.
 

This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi.  There was a storm in 1966 that was somewhat similar with a due north track also.  Also one of my top analogs!

 

 

[stormtracker]

so, the run is done and I can't make a real determination so I'll leave it to the pros.  But the subtle changes to me seem positive

[Heisy]

It is risky but it can work. I’m shocked how similar the setup is to Jan 22 1987 given its nearly the same time of year and that was one of my top analogs!  


There was no high in front of that one.  It had a little wave rotate around ahead of the anchor vortex but the key was that the trough remained positive tilted until the partial phase with the stj in the southeast. That way once the storm starts to get pulled north it won’t track inside where we need it.  But it’s a very similar progression to what the gfs just did.
 
This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi.  There was a storm in 1966 that was somewhat similar with a due north track also.  Also one of my top analogs!
 
 

Nice pick for an analog.

18z euro thru 75, I like how the main vort has backed up a tick


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[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi

Yep. Need a phased bomb to juice up and climb. Or its a 4-6 best case storm. And that would be fine at this point honestly. 

[Heisy]

so, the run is done and I can't make a real determination so I'll leave it to the pros.  But the subtle changes to me seem positive

Not a pro, but I’m a fan, think there’s better spacing with the TPV, our wave is backed up a bit, not pressing as far S. I wouldn’t guarantee it looks like GFS but I imagine it would be much better than 12z crap. Maybe like last nights 00z? We’ll see the control/eps less than an hour


.

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, Heisy said:

Not a pro, but I’m a fan, think there’s better spacing with the TPV, our wave is backed up a bit, not pressing as far S. I wouldn’t guarantee it looks like GFS but I imagine it would be much better than 12z crap. Maybe like last nights 00z? We’ll see the control/eps less than an hour


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Saw the same but I like the word "Tick" better! In many ways I thought it looked the same. I did see the TPV being a bit different and little modification in the energy. Need some better people than me to do proper analysis! Will look forwards to the ensembles

 

[nj2va]

TPV looks like it’s oriented slightly differently than 12z too.  I would think this would have helped to prevent squashing it but I’m a dumb dumb so what do I know.

 

[Heisy]

Look how the wave near the dakotas backed up. That would allow for more phasing once it tries to turn the corner. On top of that the tpv press isn’t as strong




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[Ralph Wiggum]

On 1/5/2024 at 6:05 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z gfs has some 1987ish shit happening post 324 hrs.

 

On 1/5/2024 at 8:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is risky but it can work. I’m shocked how similar the setup is to Jan 22 1987 given its nearly the same time of year and that was one of my top analogs!  


There was no high in front of that one.  It had a little wave rotate around ahead of the anchor vortex but the key was that the trough remained positive tilted until the partial phase with the stj in the southeast. That way once the storm starts to get pulled north it won’t track inside where we need it.  But it’s a very similar progression to what the gfs just did.
 

This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi.  There was a storm in 1966 that was somewhat similar with a due north track also.  Also one of my top analogs!

 

 

Amazing this look has been showing since I noted the gfs had hints of it on Jan 5! And we tend to bash these models more often than not.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

In reality there would probably be a lot of sleet along I-95 with that outcome. Just another op run though.

Depends if we’re talking about what it actually shows or superimposing some further warming trend only to. As is it’s pretty much all snow in DC. I checked the soundings. The warmest layer is 850 and it never gets above at any level in DC.  This win as is was showing a 6-8” thump snow in DC maybe with some light sleet in the dry slot.
 

Even southeast of 95 west of the bay there is only a very small warm layer at 850 and it comes in towards the end of the WAA thump. In actuality even east of 95 I think would get a 4-6” thump then just dry slot as they mix with sleet and snizzle. Once east of the bay it does become very problematic on this run. 
 

But I get it. I’d prefer the 12z solution.  Even up here I’d feel safer with that at this lead. 

[winter_warlock]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is risky but it can work. I’m shocked how similar the setup is to Jan 22 1987 given its nearly the same time of year and that was one of my top analogs!  


There was no high in front of that one.  It had a little wave rotate around ahead of the anchor vortex but the key was that the trough remained positive tilted until the partial phase with the stj in the southeast. That way once the storm starts to get pulled north it won’t track inside where we need it.  But it’s a very similar progression to what the gfs just did.
 

This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi.  There was a storm in 1966 that was somewhat similar with a due north track also.  Also one of my top analogs!

 

 

Oh man i remember those back to back storms in 87.  Had 6 foot drifts going up  my moms back deck lol

[StormyClearweather]

Understandably, the focus is on Tuesday, but can anyone speak to how things are looking as we head into late month/Feb.? I don't remember seeing much talk about the longer term after the 12Z runs, but maybe I missed it.