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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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still a good idea to use ensembles in this range........nice run for the GFS Op, its probably ends up something similar to this but a bit further southeast if you believe the ensembles.......

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I’m off all next week. Wanna meet up and chase? I’ll bring the food, you bring the beer B)

I have a class to teach. Tbh, I wouldn't even be able to enjoy this one. Still want some damn snow though.

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In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution. 

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Question, for those who have delved deeper into this than I have.  There's been discussion that the models won't have the best handle on this system until the GL cutter moves out (approx. Saturday).  How have the Euro and GFS handled the location, strength, etc. of that cutter relative to each other?  Obviously that's not the only piece here but it is a big player in the overall setup.

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15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

GFS doubles down. Your move, Euro.

 

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

which would you rather have now?

Given where everything else is I’m glad the euro is where it is. If the euro and gfs were both flush hits and the gem uk NW we would be worried about it going NW.  right now the median of all guidance is a hit and that’s not a bad spot. 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution. 

Thing I like about this is how the cold air (in the GFS) is still pretty well locked despite the low tucking in a bit more.  Just looking at the 2-m temps, for instance, it's in the mid-20s to near 30ish throughout Tuesday before they crash that evening.  Mid-levels do get dicey-er during Tuesday for a time, but no point parsing such details at this point.

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