NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I'm in DC. NW of that black 1008 line! Screw you!!!Mix is legit FRZA/IP. Temps are cold enough, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 still a good idea to use ensembles in this range........nice run for the GFS Op, its probably ends up something similar to this but a bit further southeast if you believe the ensembles....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 NW trend has started. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 slight NW trend, more intense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS doubles down. Your move, Euro.No way gfs loses this. It’s not a great model but its usually reliable at 102 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm in DC. NW of that black 1008 line! Screw you!!! Careful, the snow gods are watching, some one in KC farts the wrong way at the game Saturday and you will be sleeting too.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 which would you rather have now?the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Breaking out the scotch for HH after this GFS run. The King has taken the lead again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just need more precip and a wider precip shield! WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT! This was awesome! Keep improving! Euro - get a clue and come back to the party please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Man why'd the Euro have to go and farther earlier? Even the air freshener of this happy hour gfs didn't completely cover up the stink. Model chaos...one of the most frustrating parts of this hobby! We'll see who caves to who...but as of now, Euro vs. everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: the euro 100% In the end, it will probably screw me though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 976mb in Maine.. it starts phasing with the northern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 976mb in Maine.. it starts phasing with the northern system. Don't give a S about Maine Chuck 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looking good on the snow depth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 100% In the end, it will probably screw me though lol. I’m off all next week. Wanna meet up and chase? I’ll bring the food, you bring the beer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 At 15z Tuesday the GFS places the LP inside of Hatteras. That is very important for inland areas! The EURO will cave at 00Z IMAO........................ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, you're almost at immunity from ban line. one of my faves Hilarious movie, with one of the best movie-rants ever by Steve Martin! 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: FOLKS.... I'm guessing "FOLKS..." is the new "Jaws music"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Alright alright let’s see some clown maps for shits and giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Hilarious movie, with one of the best movie-rants ever by Steve Martin! I'm guessing "FOLKS..." is the new "Jaws music"!! Pretty much. Gotta switch it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18Z GFS looks almost like a cross between the Euro and CMC (Euro almost nothing or too far out, CMC too close and warm)...I'm speaking in terms of the outcome, sort of. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I’m off all next week. Wanna meet up and chase? I’ll bring the food, you bring the beer I have a class to teach. Tbh, I wouldn't even be able to enjoy this one. Still want some damn snow though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’m greedy. How much more can we squeeze out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That run was da bomb 9 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That run was da bomb For you lol. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Question, for those who have delved deeper into this than I have. There's been discussion that the models won't have the best handle on this system until the GL cutter moves out (approx. Saturday). How have the Euro and GFS handled the location, strength, etc. of that cutter relative to each other? Obviously that's not the only piece here but it is a big player in the overall setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This is what we should have when there is a block over the Davis Strait like this. 2 jets underneath of it.. perhaps phasing. look at this potential energy on the 18z gfs run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: GFS doubles down. Your move, Euro. 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: which would you rather have now? Given where everything else is I’m glad the euro is where it is. If the euro and gfs were both flush hits and the gem uk NW we would be worried about it going NW. right now the median of all guidance is a hit and that’s not a bad spot. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I’m greedy. How much more can we squeeze out of this? 6-12 area wide —> cold temps —> snowpack for a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution. Thing I like about this is how the cold air (in the GFS) is still pretty well locked despite the low tucking in a bit more. Just looking at the 2-m temps, for instance, it's in the mid-20s to near 30ish throughout Tuesday before they crash that evening. Mid-levels do get dicey-er during Tuesday for a time, but no point parsing such details at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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