brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill @Terpeast @WxUSAF @CAPE @brooklynwx99 Ok team...please save my sanity and help me understand WTF is going on here. And yes I know its a long range GFS op and unlikely to go down this way, BUT I have seen this actually happen several times the last few years so the point is why does this keep happening not whether this one run will or wont go this way. Look at this BEUTIFUL longwave setup Absolutely PERFECT pacific here, trough axis west of AK, huge beautiful EPO ridge, cut off pac energy (4) about to slide into the SW, old TPV sliding northeast towards the 50/50 space on the altantic side. Given the longwave pattern you would expect 1 and 2 to dig south into the plains and 3/4 to interact then slide east in this split flow. Right? But look what actually happens with 1/2/3/4 Depsite an absolutely PERFECT pacific AND atlantic longwave pattern, despite everything Ive' ever seen through history until the last few years...they all dive south/southwest and phase into a monster trough in the southwest somehow...dirictly UNDER the EPO ridge. This get's back to the argument I was having with chuck the other day where an EPO ridge has done us absolutely no good lately because instead of the cold coming in due to it pressing east which is historically what is supposed to happen, the wavelenghts just get incredibly short and whatever NS energy comes down just dives southwest and cuts off into the southwest UNDER the EPO ridge. It gets even more ridiculous from there So by the end of the run, dispite a picture perfect longwave configuration on both sides..a beautiful green land block, a perfect pacific and atlantic longwave configuration...we have a huge cutoff vortex in the west and a huge SER. Again...this is not to say this WILL happen...but I have seen this ACTUALLY happen several times the last 5 years or so. WHY? What am I missing here? Why is that longwave configuration leading to all that energy dumping into the west? I am tired of people just saying "its the pac" The pacific longwave pattern is perfect there...that trough shouldnt be there. Please help explain this. idk man it's not really worth worrying about at that range. just seems like an OP run doing a bad job handling a retrograding Rossby wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: The chase for modeled cold is looking good though: Models do a good job with cold outbreaks. This is rollover cold coming in from Midwest which is not as good for us and cold that moves over eastern Lakes and se and down upon us. Those below zero readings in OV will moderate by 20F by time it gets here but that’s still around 20 for 7am Get that pouring in se from eastern lakes and we have a low around 5F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: idk man it's not really worth worrying about at that range. just seems like an OP run doing a bad job handling a retrograding Rossby wave OK but people said that same thing a few times recently and then it happened. Maybe this time won't. I am NOT saying this is how I expect it to go down. But no one has ever answered WHY this keeps happening lately. Typically there is just a lot of "its a bad pac" nonesense, and its easy to get away with that because the pac has actually been awful most of the time the last 8 years with a Nina type dominant central pac ridge. But those fail periods don't bother me. Yea it sucked but when I saw the pattern coming in Dec 2019 and cancelled winter...I fully expected us to get no snow given the way the pac looked. That was expected. There are lots of other examples of those periods where yea it sucked to be stuck in a nina no hope pattern for us...but we SHOULD fail in that. But what bothers me is several times in the last 5 years we did get a period where the longwave pattern was GOOD and energy still dove into the southwest anyways. The problem was NOT the pacific, there was no huge central pac ridge...the longwave config there was good, but the same result. I showed this once last winter and no one explained it. How the pacific longwave configuration flipped completely opposite but yet the trough out west remained in the same damn place. The wavelenghts just shorted so the energy could still cut down into the SW regardless of what the upsteam pattern in the PAC was. That is what I want an explanation...why lately has there been a tendency for energy to cut into the west no matter what the Pacific longwave pattern upstream of it is? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: OK but people said that same thing a few times recently and then it happened. Maybe this time won't. I am NOT saying this is how I expect it to go down. But no one has ever answered WHY this keeps happening lately. Typically there is just a lot of "its a bad pac" nonesense, and its easy to get away with that because the pac has actually been awful most of the time the last 8 years with a Nina type dominant central pac ridge. But those fail periods don't bother me. Yea it sucked but when I saw the pattern coming in Dec 2019 and cancelled winter...I fully expected us to get no snow given the way the pac looked. That was expected. There are lots of other examples of those periods where yea it sucked to be stuck in a nina no hope pattern for us...but we SHOULD fail in that. But what bothers me is several times in the last 5 years we did get a period where the longwave pattern was GOOD and energy still dove into the southwest anyways. The problem was NOT the pacific, there was no huge central pac ridge...the longwave config there was good, but the same result. I showed this once last winter and no one explained it. How the pacific longwave configuration flipped completely opposite but yet the trough out west remained in the same damn place. The wavelenghts just shorted so the energy could still cut down into the SW regardless of what the upsteam pattern in the PAC was. That is what I want an explanation...why lately has there been a tendency for energy to cut into the west no matter what the Pacific longwave pattern upstream of it is? it's because the waves phase into the weakness underneath the EPO block. it's centered too far north and heights are able to continue to crash. it makes sense meteorologically 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 anyway, the GEFS and GEPS both look very good at some point for the 19-20th they all have the major synoptic features in place for a larger storm 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OK but people said that same thing a few times recently and then it happened. Maybe this time won't. I am NOT saying this is how I expect it to go down. But no one has ever answered WHY this keeps happening lately. Typically there is just a lot of "its a bad pac" nonesense, and its easy to get away with that because the pac has actually been awful most of the time the last 8 years with a Nina type dominant central pac ridge. But those fail periods don't bother me. Yea it sucked but when I saw the pattern coming in Dec 2019 and cancelled winter...I fully expected us to get no snow given the way the pac looked. That was expected. There are lots of other examples of those periods where yea it sucked to be stuck in a nina no hope pattern for us...but we SHOULD fail in that. But what bothers me is several times in the last 5 years we did get a period where the longwave pattern was GOOD and energy still dove into the southwest anyways. The problem was NOT the pacific, there was no huge central pac ridge...the longwave config there was good, but the same result. I showed this once last winter and no one explained it. How the pacific longwave configuration flipped completely opposite but yet the trough out west remained in the same damn place. The wavelenghts just shorted so the energy could still cut down into the SW regardless of what the upsteam pattern in the PAC was. That is what I want an explanation...why lately has there been a tendency for energy to cut into the west no matter what the Pacific longwave pattern upstream of it is? This sounds funky old fashioned but it’s almost like the gears don’t mesh and grind the same way anymore. That in turn seems to make the 3-5 days not solid anymore and we are down to 1-3 for solid accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: This sounds funky old fashioned but it’s almost like the gears don’t mesh and grind the same way anymore. That in turn seems to make the 3-5 days not solid anymore and we are down to 1-3 for solid accuracy Didn't Hoffman (or someone else) recently remark at how good the models have gotten at handling stuff at range? Not saying anyone is right, just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill @Terpeast @WxUSAF @CAPE @brooklynwx99 Ok team...please save my sanity and help me understand WTF is going on here. And yes I know its a long range GFS op and unlikely to go down this way, BUT I have seen this actually happen several times the last few years so the point is why does this keep happening not whether this one run will or wont go this way. Look at this BEUTIFUL longwave setup Absolutely PERFECT pacific here, trough axis west of AK, huge beautiful EPO ridge, cut off pac energy (4) about to slide into the SW, old TPV sliding northeast towards the 50/50 space on the altantic side. Given the longwave pattern you would expect 1 and 2 to dig south into the plains and 3/4 to interact then slide east in this split flow. Right? But look what actually happens with 1/2/3/4 Depsite an absolutely PERFECT pacific AND atlantic longwave pattern, despite everything Ive' ever seen through history until the last few years...they all dive south/southwest and phase into a monster trough in the southwest somehow...dirictly UNDER the EPO ridge. This get's back to the argument I was having with chuck the other day where an EPO ridge has done us absolutely no good lately because instead of the cold coming in due to it pressing east which is historically what is supposed to happen, the wavelenghts just get incredibly short and whatever NS energy comes down just dives southwest and cuts off into the southwest UNDER the EPO ridge. It gets even more ridiculous from there So by the end of the run, dispite a picture perfect longwave configuration on both sides..a beautiful green land block, a perfect pacific and atlantic longwave configuration...we have a huge cutoff vortex in the west and a huge SER. Again...this is not to say this WILL happen...but I have seen this ACTUALLY happen several times the last 5 years or so. WHY? What am I missing here? Why is that longwave configuration leading to all that energy dumping into the west? I am tired of people just saying "its the pac" The pacific longwave pattern is perfect there...that trough shouldnt be there. Please help explain this. Here is how you save your sanity- don't do this sort of analysis on an op run 10+ days out lol. I know I don't have the energy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill @Terpeast @WxUSAF @CAPE @brooklynwx99 Ok team...please save my sanity and help me understand WTF is going on here. And yes I know its a long range GFS op and unlikely to go down this way, BUT I have seen this actually happen several times the last few years so the point is why does this keep happening not whether this one run will or wont go this way. Look at this BEUTIFUL longwave setup Absolutely PERFECT pacific here, trough axis west of AK, huge beautiful EPO ridge, cut off pac energy (4) about to slide into the SW, old TPV sliding northeast towards the 50/50 space on the altantic side. Given the longwave pattern you would expect 1 and 2 to dig south into the plains and 3/4 to interact then slide east in this split flow. Right? But look what actually happens with 1/2/3/4 Depsite an absolutely PERFECT pacific AND atlantic longwave pattern, despite everything Ive' ever seen through history until the last few years...they all dive south/southwest and phase into a monster trough in the southwest somehow...dirictly UNDER the EPO ridge. This get's back to the argument I was having with chuck the other day where an EPO ridge has done us absolutely no good lately because instead of the cold coming in due to it pressing east which is historically what is supposed to happen, the wavelenghts just get incredibly short and whatever NS energy comes down just dives southwest and cuts off into the southwest UNDER the EPO ridge. It gets even more ridiculous from there So by the end of the run, dispite a picture perfect longwave configuration on both sides..a beautiful green land block, a perfect pacific and atlantic longwave configuration...we have a huge cutoff vortex in the west and a huge SER. Again...this is not to say this WILL happen...but I have seen this ACTUALLY happen several times the last 5 years or so. WHY? What am I missing here? Why is that longwave configuration leading to all that energy dumping into the west? I am tired of people just saying "its the pac" The pacific longwave pattern is perfect there...that trough shouldnt be there. Please help explain this. -PDO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: -PDO That doesn't really satisfy me. An index, any index, be it NAO, AO, EPO, PNA or whatever is a description of an observed pattern of measurements. It is not, in and of itself a mechanistic explanation of WHY the observed pattern is occurring, or why it has certain consequences. And saying that heights in the SW are low because the -PDO is tautological. It's like saying that something is hot because the thermometer has high readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's because the waves phase into the weakness underneath the EPO block. it's centered too far north and heights are able to continue to crash. it makes sense meteorologically There should be a trough there yes...but it should then get pushed east because of the EPO ridge dumping all that cold into the CONUS along with the blocking regime to the east...through history what happened was during a -PDO period that pac energy would crash into the SW, the NS energy would dive in above it, and then the trough would push east under the block. Look at this composite of the loading pattern before 5 of our big -PDO Nino snowstorms...this was the model for what I expected to lead to our snow this winter... Now look at that GFS run The only difference between the two longwave patterns there is the SER which is because that trough in the west digs to kingdom come, phases with the NS and cuts off instead of kicking east. That is what I am asking. The same longwave pattern in every way that used to lead to a trough in the east and snow threats has been leading to a HUGE SER lately. Why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: -PDO Look at my last post...all those snows were in a -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12z GEFS has a indication of low pressure closer to the SE coast for the 20th. Previous runs have been way offshore. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: anyway, the GEFS and GEPS both look very good at some point for the 19-20th they all have the major synoptic features in place for a larger storm That’s the best GEFS look I’ve seen yet. Longitudinally extended trough from 50/50 west to north of the Great Lakes with a strong -NAO is classic. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @CAPE I have a theory but I wanted to see if anyone else has the same explanation before I put it out there. I am in no way confident in my theory... I am mostly just searching for WHY this same progression has happened a lot. And no the op gfs doesn't mean it WILL happen, but the fact its showing up means its still in there as an option and since its been happening often lately I am trying to understand. It's not something I saw a lot of historically. How can I forecast better if something new is happening a lot and I don't understand the why behind it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Since my questions and tangents often seem to send the wrong impression...The 12z Guidance has been pretty good on the whole IMO. Don't let my quest to understand this one specific phenomenon skew the perception. I feel even better about our snow chances now than 2 hours ago. This is purely an attempt to understand something on my part. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 OK, time for Euro shitty pbp. Just about getting into the time frame of interest 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since my questions and tangents often seem to send the wrong impression...The 12z Guidance has been pretty good on the whole IMO. Don't let my quest to understand this one specific phenomenon skew the perception. I feel even better about our snow chances now than 2 hours ago. This is purely an attempt to understand something on my part. I hate to ask, but NS is probably the last abbreviation I haven’t figured out. What does it stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Promising so far. Not declaring anything definite yall, so don't blame me if you get your hopes up and it doesn't pan out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Rhino16 said: I hate to ask, but NS is probably the last abbreviation I haven’t figured out. What does it stand for? Northern Stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: OK, time for Euro shitty pbp. Just about getting into the time frame of interest So far...that TPV extension rotation through 50/50 is still there and maybe even stronger...but the two features diving around the back of the TPV are phasing earlier...thats potentially not good if the 50/50 feature moves out it could cut more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, yoda said: Northern Stream Okay, I had that as an option. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I hate to ask, but NS is probably the last abbreviation I haven’t figured out. What does it stand for? NoSnow 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, psuhoffman said: So far...that TPV extension rotation through 50/50 is still there and maybe even stronger...but the two features diving around the back of the TPV are phasing earlier...thats potentially not good if the 50/50 feature moves out it could cut more. Yup saw the extension at 50/50 at 150 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 euro looks much weaker through 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 500 is messier than 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hope Stormtracker doesn't mind, but 1007mb SLP in SE SC at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup saw the extension at 50/50 at 150 hours 50/50 looks awesome. this should be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Differences better to our northeast but more phasing earlier out west. Wash? Dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, yoda said: Hope Stormtracker doesn't mind, but 1007mb SLP in SE SC at 168 lol, why would I. Looks sloppier than 0z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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