H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I think the euro DID get the 850 down to bermuda this run. This means we are in the sweet spot in 5 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This only increases the uncertainty even more No shit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro was the only model showing something a few days ago. Now its the only model showing nothing. How is the GFS/GGEM/ICON/UKMET showing something and the euro comes out with this There were plenty of EPS members with this suppressed nothing solution. There are two options here... either the Euro op is leading the way and the others are now just where it was yesterday and will catch up to the suppressed idea soon. Or the op euro just randomly drew a solution out of different chaotic options affected by minor changes and it messed one of them up and it will come around to the others soon. I have no idea which one it is, and neither does anyone else. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I told you that probably wont work. Even that control run wasn't going to work and it wasn't even going to be close. I saw some of the posts about it and went and looked and was like...huh this was going to be way OTS. The angle that trailing wave is coming in at and the angle of the trough trailing from the TPV makes it almost impossible for that final caboose SW to amplify and come north. It's going to swing way too far SE before turning the corner. Plus, with 2 waves ahead of it, its simply unlikely to have enough left along the STJ boundary for it to activate a healthy storm in time. Yes, in an ideal world we get the TPV out ahead and then something comes in behind but the spacing isnt even close for that to work. I was just thrilled the guidance went from keying on the lead wave on Monday/Tuesday to the second wave on Tuesday. That allows the chance for the front the clear and to get a healthy enough boundary wave like the GFS. You're going greedy and trying for the next wave which yes if you were to change some variables would have HECS potential but its too late in the game to get those changes imo. I've been wrong but man would I be really really shocked if that last trailing wave was able to turn the corner and amplify. I hope I am wrong but that seems far fetched imo. Yea guess you’re right. I’d risk cmc inland vs this route lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Again, it goes back to clearing the cutter outta here before we can hone in on a solution. Sorry I sound like a broken record saying this but it is what it is 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Beethoven even discussing the idea of starting a thread killed the storm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I think the euro DID get the 850 down to bermuda this run. This means we are in the sweet spot in 5 days I know you're kidding but I do not think this is the type of setup where we will see a huge NW shift once guidance does settle on a solution. Right now its bouncing all over because fairly minor changes in a lot of factors have a huge impact on this, so they are all over the place. But once they settle in on a basic solution I don't expect HUGE shifts NW with the boundary. This isn't the same type scenario as last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Beethoven even discussing the idea of starting a thread killed the storm. Forget the Curse of the Ninth, Beethoven succumbed to the Curse of the Thread... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, Ji said: this would never happen with a cutter/Rainstorm It's been happening all last summer. That's why we're still in a moderate drought in the Valley. I'm not saying that! The U.S. Drought Monitor is........................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’ll bet DT just soiled himself 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Called it this morning, “watch gfs be snowiest model today” Look I was rooting for a different evolution, but I’d 1000% take cmc/Ukie/gfs over this crap. Let’s see what eps does. . Oh, we know what you did. Charges are being drawn up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro took away the day 10 storm that was going to wipe New England off the map for good. Oh well, maybe in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Current state of affairs 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Forget the Curse of the Ninth, Beethoven succumbed to the Curse of the Thread... I rather it vanish then watch anyone south of me get a single flake before I do. You're lucky you live north of me, PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I will say this...we have now had 17 days of a damn near perfect longwave pattern for snow, pretty much since the pacific jet shifted around xmas. And so far we have 2 perfect track rain events and 2 cutters to show for it. Yes I know we were left with a torched thermal profile after the December Pac onslaught, I don't know why everyone feels the need to point that out. But it will be comical in a Shakespeare tragedy kinda way, if we continue somehow through winter...finding ways to fail despite a pattern that matches every huge snow winter we've had. After being too warm the TPV drops down on top of us and suppresses everything for weeks...then maybe we finally get it to relax but it shifts too far west and we get cutters again. The meltdowns will be entertaining at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18 minutes ago, Paleocene said: So, 12z summary of 120-144 OP runs: CMC - west/rain95/snow favored spots UKMET - west decent snow/bit of snow for 95 GFS - nice for all Euro - what storm? ICON - east/meh/nothingburger Let's take the median ?? Aren't you forgetting someone? 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 EPS continues to enhance that first trailing vort. Other than that, no huge changes through 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will say this...we have now had 17 days of a damn near perfect longwave pattern for snow, pretty much since the pacific jet shifted around xmas. And so far we have 2 perfect track rain events and 2 cutters to show for it. Yes I know we were left with a torched thermal profile after the December Pac onslaught, I don't know why everyone feels the need to point that out. But it will be comical in a Shakespeare tragedy kinda way, if we continue somehow through winter...finding ways to fail despite a pattern that matches every huge snow winter we've had. After being too warm the TPV drops down on top of us and suppresses everything for weeks...then maybe we finally get it to relax but it shifts too far west and we get cutters again. The meltdowns will be entertaining at least. Even in said Shakespeare hypothetical...the worse part would be that we really wouldn't have an answer...as a suppressed pattern wouldn't answer the "too warm" question as that would be more of a bad luck thing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression. I think you can see that a bit on the EPS at 90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression. Should we like...start rooting against that somewhat (I know we obviously need the cold) so we can get more space for waves? Not just talking about for Tues, but in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will say this...we have now had 17 days of a damn near perfect longwave pattern for snow, pretty much since the pacific jet shifted around xmas. And so far we have 2 perfect track rain events and 2 cutters to show for it. Yes I know we were left with a torched thermal profile after the December Pac onslaught, I don't know why everyone feels the need to point that out. But it will be comical in a Shakespeare tragedy kinda way, if we continue somehow through winter...finding ways to fail despite a pattern that matches every huge snow winter we've had. After being too warm the TPV drops down on top of us and suppresses everything for weeks...then maybe we finally get it to relax but it shifts too far west and we get cutters again. The meltdowns will be entertaining at least. Yeah, we had a nice NE Pacific High pressure when the 2-3 cutters happened though https://ibb.co/GFXBnJG Now, the NAO space and 50/50 low were just about perfect, but this goes back to our argument that the Pacific is dominating right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Don't quote me, but I think we just need the TPV to ease off a bit... ridging increasing behind the storm bodes well for it amplifying in a vacuum but it needs room and the TPV won't give it any! Ease off too much though and with ridging behind like that, could risk too much amplification I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z EPS versus 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 EPS looks okay so far... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: That’s not gonna work. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 @psuhoffmani hope we dont do this 8-0 thing again instead of 8-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: EPS looks okay so far... Not terrible but def more of a coastal scraper look to it than a direct hit, at least it didn't totally evaporate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Took this from the New England thread. Certainly doesn't look like the OP. Still a bit to Far East but much better than the OP 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Not trying to junk it up too much with maps in here, but at 00z weds, the presentation of the EPS is pretty similar. Maybe a hair east. Lows more tightly clustered around the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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