WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I’ll bet DT just soiled himself 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Called it this morning, “watch gfs be snowiest model today” Look I was rooting for a different evolution, but I’d 1000% take cmc/Ukie/gfs over this crap. Let’s see what eps does. . Oh, we know what you did. Charges are being drawn up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Euro took away the day 10 storm that was going to wipe New England off the map for good. Oh well, maybe in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Current state of affairs 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Forget the Curse of the Ninth, Beethoven succumbed to the Curse of the Thread... I rather it vanish then watch anyone south of me get a single flake before I do. You're lucky you live north of me, PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I will say this...we have now had 17 days of a damn near perfect longwave pattern for snow, pretty much since the pacific jet shifted around xmas. And so far we have 2 perfect track rain events and 2 cutters to show for it. Yes I know we were left with a torched thermal profile after the December Pac onslaught, I don't know why everyone feels the need to point that out. But it will be comical in a Shakespeare tragedy kinda way, if we continue somehow through winter...finding ways to fail despite a pattern that matches every huge snow winter we've had. After being too warm the TPV drops down on top of us and suppresses everything for weeks...then maybe we finally get it to relax but it shifts too far west and we get cutters again. The meltdowns will be entertaining at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 18 minutes ago, Paleocene said: So, 12z summary of 120-144 OP runs: CMC - west/rain95/snow favored spots UKMET - west decent snow/bit of snow for 95 GFS - nice for all Euro - what storm? ICON - east/meh/nothingburger Let's take the median ?? Aren't you forgetting someone? 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 EPS continues to enhance that first trailing vort. Other than that, no huge changes through 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will say this...we have now had 17 days of a damn near perfect longwave pattern for snow, pretty much since the pacific jet shifted around xmas. And so far we have 2 perfect track rain events and 2 cutters to show for it. Yes I know we were left with a torched thermal profile after the December Pac onslaught, I don't know why everyone feels the need to point that out. But it will be comical in a Shakespeare tragedy kinda way, if we continue somehow through winter...finding ways to fail despite a pattern that matches every huge snow winter we've had. After being too warm the TPV drops down on top of us and suppresses everything for weeks...then maybe we finally get it to relax but it shifts too far west and we get cutters again. The meltdowns will be entertaining at least. Even in said Shakespeare hypothetical...the worse part would be that we really wouldn't have an answer...as a suppressed pattern wouldn't answer the "too warm" question as that would be more of a bad luck thing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression. I think you can see that a bit on the EPS at 90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression. Should we like...start rooting against that somewhat (I know we obviously need the cold) so we can get more space for waves? Not just talking about for Tues, but in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will say this...we have now had 17 days of a damn near perfect longwave pattern for snow, pretty much since the pacific jet shifted around xmas. And so far we have 2 perfect track rain events and 2 cutters to show for it. Yes I know we were left with a torched thermal profile after the December Pac onslaught, I don't know why everyone feels the need to point that out. But it will be comical in a Shakespeare tragedy kinda way, if we continue somehow through winter...finding ways to fail despite a pattern that matches every huge snow winter we've had. After being too warm the TPV drops down on top of us and suppresses everything for weeks...then maybe we finally get it to relax but it shifts too far west and we get cutters again. The meltdowns will be entertaining at least. Yeah, we had a nice NE Pacific High pressure when the 2-3 cutters happened though https://ibb.co/GFXBnJG Now, the NAO space and 50/50 low were just about perfect, but this goes back to our argument that the Pacific is dominating right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Don't quote me, but I think we just need the TPV to ease off a bit... ridging increasing behind the storm bodes well for it amplifying in a vacuum but it needs room and the TPV won't give it any! Ease off too much though and with ridging behind like that, could risk too much amplification I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 12z EPS versus 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 EPS looks okay so far... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: That’s not gonna work. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 @psuhoffmani hope we dont do this 8-0 thing again instead of 8-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: EPS looks okay so far... Not terrible but def more of a coastal scraper look to it than a direct hit, at least it didn't totally evaporate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Took this from the New England thread. Certainly doesn't look like the OP. Still a bit to Far East but much better than the OP 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Not trying to junk it up too much with maps in here, but at 00z weds, the presentation of the EPS is pretty similar. Maybe a hair east. Lows more tightly clustered around the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Don't quote me, but I think we just need the TPV to ease off a bit... ridging increasing behind the storm bodes well for it amplifying in a vacuum but it needs room and the TPV won't give it any! Ease off too much though and with ridging behind like that, could risk too much amplification I think. We're pretty good at light precip events showing up within a few days. It happens with rain, but we just care more when it's snow lol. As long as there's sustained cold, the chances are up that we'll get something out of it. The issue is that we haven't really had sustained cold...so that's why I'm more interested in tracking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Op euro probably on the SE side of the ensemble envelope, which means we can't rule a solution like that out. At least most members are more NW of the op 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The mean QPF did shift SE significantly though from 00z though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS, I would wait on starting a thread. Is that around 20F at 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Thats prob not a great trend... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s not gonna work. not for your neck of the woods 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 12 EPS snow depth mean 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Generally speaking, you don't want to see the confluence setup OVER WASHINGTON DC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Oddly all the guidance at 12z kinda fell into their biases I've observed, GGEM/UKMET over amped, ICON progressive, GFS too far SE, except the Euro which was off on its own planet. Just an observation, not sure what to do with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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