North Balti Zen Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, stormtracker said: It used to annoy me too, but I actually like it now and hope he keeps it up. It always alerts us to the worst outcome or the pitfalls of the storm, which we need to be alert for. General agreement but in this case he’s just pulling a Ji - it’s not three feet so he’s bitching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? 2 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 With that said, tomorrow sounds like a good day for a thread. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Mid Atlantic snowstorm prognostication 50% voodoo 40% witchcraft 10% meteorology 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I actually liked the gfs op run verbatim quite a bit. Chances keep coming the whole 16 days. Our first real chance since Feb. 2015 at sustained "deep winter" if everything comes together with the caveat of it occurring in the heart of winter and extending into our best climo period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 36 minutes ago, Heisy said: Oh, I’d take the GFS In a second. Try to explain what I meant…. Here are all 12z runs at 126 hours With this progression you play a dangerous game with how strong the wave can be. Can easily have a N trend in this setup as models tend to always have better phasing as we get closer. Us having snow vs rain just comes down to how strong/sharp the shortwave and trough are This progression…. You’d have absolutely no issues with cold as the second lead wave dampens the flow. It is what it is we’ll see I’d def not be upset with 4-7” of smoke . I get what you're saying and you're right if we got even more separation but there are risks with that idea too. The euro control was going to be a miss. That trailing wave is really positively tilted without enough separation and I'm not sure we can get that to trend enough at this point. At least everything has converged on the second wave being the key, instead of that lead wave that has no hope. But you're rooting for that 3rd wave, which does have the highest upside potential, but I'm not sure its viable, were getting closer and would need a huge adjustment to get to that solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, HighStakes said: Our first real chance since Feb. 2015 at sustained "deep winter" if everything comes together with the caveat of it occurring in the heart of winter and extending into our best climo period. Even without the snow, probably the coldest 1 week/10 day period in awhile. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? So... radio show? 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 56 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: looks like we could be setting up for multiple light over running events after next week, 2" of cold smoke every few days would be great And with remote learning a thing post-covid, my house will be full of........joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? I say let's live a little. Throw caution to the wind. YOLO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: And with remote learning a thing post-covid, my house will be full of........joy. It's infuriating. Let these kids have snow days. And let the adults have a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro about to get into range, but so far: front runner s/w was a hair stronger the one we're watching was flatter vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 run should be good. initial vort is stronger, ridge out west is taller. should dig more, if nothing else 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, yoda said: So... radio show? Those were the days. Loved listening to those leading up to a mecs or hecs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks a bit more supressed to me so far. But for the love of God, listen to the mets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks a bit more supressed to me so far. But for the love of God, listen to the mets i think it ends up a bit too disorganized in the end. odd, looked promising. not a big deal, though, it's one OP run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro has some very light snow showers in the area Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Yeah, looks way more smooshed and precip isn't heavy at all compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i think it ends up a bit too disorganized in the end. odd, looked promising. not a big deal, though, it's one OP run I blame heisey. 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 we definitely don't have to worry about Heisy's NW phobia with the euro. I don't mind seeing some stuff SE and some stuff NW at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro might be similar to 6z control with delayed wave . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks nothing like last night as far as organization and precip field. This run is a dead ratter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I blame that we even mentioned a storm thread 7 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Funny how the model flipped lol. Euro was alone with showing snow and now is alone again being south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 we definitely don't have to worry about Heisy's NW phobia with the euro. I don't mind seeing some stuff SE and some stuff NW at this point. This looks like a 6z control progression but spacing not gonna be enough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro all alone with this idea though so who knows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 lol...Euro completely lost the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Welp, we've flipped places. GFS looks good and Euro looks sickly and supressed/weak Barely any precip in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we definitely don't have to worry about Heisy's NW phobia with the euro. I don't mind seeing some stuff SE and some stuff NW starting a storm thread at this point. fify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It’s also introducing a kicker wave in the NW which is no where to be found on any other model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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