baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The hamsters doing the math on that run should be sacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Almost time to extrapolate the NAM. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: GFS leading the way again. We are good now maybe it was some sort of convective feedback issue. we do however excel at all to nothing model runs....so who knows. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Congrats Can you expand that out to show SW Wisconsin? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's not really even flipping around. It completely lost a storm it's had for like 10 straight runs. Good point. I would guess this is one of those weird Euro MR burps where it has a totally new solution and then comes back (weenie, I know). I remember it did that with some of our other events too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: This only increases the uncertainty even more Curious about what the weekend cutter did this run...I do wonder also if we see the goalposts ever so slightly with a hit vs suppressed/squashed, and a warm solution is becoming less likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: This looks like a 6z control progression but spacing not gonna be enough . I told you that probably wont work. Even that control run wasn't going to work and it wasn't even going to be close. I saw some of the posts about it and went and looked and was like...huh this was going to be way OTS. The angle that trailing wave is coming in at and the angle of the trough trailing from the TPV makes it almost impossible for that final caboose SW to amplify and come north. It's going to swing way too far SE before turning the corner. Plus, with 2 waves ahead of it, its simply unlikely to have enough left along the STJ boundary for it to activate a healthy storm in time. Yes, in an ideal world we get the TPV out ahead and then something comes in behind but the spacing isnt even close for that to work. I was just thrilled the guidance went from keying on the lead wave on Monday/Tuesday to the second wave on Tuesday. That allows the chance for the front the clear and to get a healthy enough boundary wave like the GFS. You're going greedy and trying for the next wave which yes if you were to change some variables would have HECS potential but its too late in the game to get those changes imo. I've been wrong but man would I be really really shocked if that last trailing wave was able to turn the corner and amplify. I hope I am wrong but that seems far fetched imo. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: It's not really even flipping around. It completely lost a storm it's had for like 10 straight runs. how many times does the euro bring a storm back after completely losing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: maybe it was some sort of convective feedback issue. we do however excel at all to nothing model runs....so who knows. [marks bingo card] 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 5 day model losses storm rule? Weenie handbook item from long ago? But having it completely disappear is just so strange! Ensemble time! BUT this is disheartening to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Remember when the Euro didn’t flip around this much? Pepperidge Farms remembers 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: 5 day model losses storm rule? Weenie handbook item from long ago? But having it completely disappear is just so strange! Ensemble time! BUT this is disheartening to say the least this would never happen with a cutter/Rainstorm 6 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: this would never happen with a cutter/Rainstorm it literally happens all the time. nobody here cares about what happens in Gary, Indiana 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 6 minutes ago, Ji said: how many times does the euro bring a storm back after completely losing it how often has it snowed lately? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Can you expand that out to show SW Wisconsin? Everything coming up you on that run lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 the euro was the only model showing something a few days ago. Now its the only model showing nothing. How is the GFS/GGEM/ICON/UKMET showing something and the euro comes out with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 So, 12z summary of 120-144 OP runs: CMC - west/rain95/snow favored spots UKMET - west decent snow/bit of snow for 95 GFS - nice for all Euro - what storm? ICON - east/meh/nothingburger Let's take the median ?? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Where's the CRAS. I want something that gives us more snow than the Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Suppression City on 12Z Euro. Lower, stronger LOW over Canada. Doesn't raise the heights. Flatter over coastal NC and Bye Felicia out to sea. MEH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this would never happen with a cutter/Rainstorm You know this is BS. First of all of course a cutter doesn't just go away because for a storm to cut up into the lakes it has to be way way way more amplified than the subtle arctic boundary wave we are tracking for our snow here. A very minor difference won't make a 988 cutter just turn into nothing but a subtle difference on a weak boundary wave can. But cutters change all the time, but we don't give a crap if the snowfall goes from 12" to 6" in Green Bay or if the snow line moves 50 or 100 miles when its 600 miles away from us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Welp, we've flipped places. GFS looks good and Euro looks sickly and supressed/weak Barely any precip in the areaCalled it this morning, “watch gfs be snowiest model today”Look I was rooting for a different evolution, but I’d 1000% take cmc/Ukie/gfs over this crap. Let’s see what eps does. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I think the euro DID get the 850 down to bermuda this run. This means we are in the sweet spot in 5 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This only increases the uncertainty even more No shit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro was the only model showing something a few days ago. Now its the only model showing nothing. How is the GFS/GGEM/ICON/UKMET showing something and the euro comes out with this There were plenty of EPS members with this suppressed nothing solution. There are two options here... either the Euro op is leading the way and the others are now just where it was yesterday and will catch up to the suppressed idea soon. Or the op euro just randomly drew a solution out of different chaotic options affected by minor changes and it messed one of them up and it will come around to the others soon. I have no idea which one it is, and neither does anyone else. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I told you that probably wont work. Even that control run wasn't going to work and it wasn't even going to be close. I saw some of the posts about it and went and looked and was like...huh this was going to be way OTS. The angle that trailing wave is coming in at and the angle of the trough trailing from the TPV makes it almost impossible for that final caboose SW to amplify and come north. It's going to swing way too far SE before turning the corner. Plus, with 2 waves ahead of it, its simply unlikely to have enough left along the STJ boundary for it to activate a healthy storm in time. Yes, in an ideal world we get the TPV out ahead and then something comes in behind but the spacing isnt even close for that to work. I was just thrilled the guidance went from keying on the lead wave on Monday/Tuesday to the second wave on Tuesday. That allows the chance for the front the clear and to get a healthy enough boundary wave like the GFS. You're going greedy and trying for the next wave which yes if you were to change some variables would have HECS potential but its too late in the game to get those changes imo. I've been wrong but man would I be really really shocked if that last trailing wave was able to turn the corner and amplify. I hope I am wrong but that seems far fetched imo. Yea guess you’re right. I’d risk cmc inland vs this route lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Again, it goes back to clearing the cutter outta here before we can hone in on a solution. Sorry I sound like a broken record saying this but it is what it is 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Beethoven even discussing the idea of starting a thread killed the storm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I think the euro DID get the 850 down to bermuda this run. This means we are in the sweet spot in 5 days I know you're kidding but I do not think this is the type of setup where we will see a huge NW shift once guidance does settle on a solution. Right now its bouncing all over because fairly minor changes in a lot of factors have a huge impact on this, so they are all over the place. But once they settle in on a basic solution I don't expect HUGE shifts NW with the boundary. This isn't the same type scenario as last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Beethoven even discussing the idea of starting a thread killed the storm. Forget the Curse of the Ninth, Beethoven succumbed to the Curse of the Thread... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 8 minutes ago, Ji said: this would never happen with a cutter/Rainstorm It's been happening all last summer. That's why we're still in a moderate drought in the Valley. I'm not saying that! The U.S. Drought Monitor is........................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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