snowfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, stormtracker said: Don’t you dare me not to dare! SOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ok y’all. No thread until later. I feel abused in this democracy. Makes me wanna just go full Pinochet up in here. 1 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, that was wild. Kinda too much of a good thing with the cold. Nope nope nope. Just give me guaranteed snow of any amount that will cover grass. Keep that rain/snow line far, far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: SOB Damn, this man is choosing violence today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Y’all want a thread today after the euro or tomm? Pros get a little more weight. I’m a pro…. In something besides meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don’t you dare me not to dare! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Don't be greedy this run was damn near perfect, cold smoke event for everyone. Yea we could root for more amplified but that could introduce other issues. Obviously we don't get the option but I would stick with this run if I could. Oh, I’d take the GFS In a second. Try to explain what I meant…. Here are all 12z runs at 126 hours With this progression you play a dangerous game with how strong the wave can be. Can easily have a N trend in this setup as models tend to always have better phasing as we get closer. Us having snow vs rain just comes down to how strong/sharp the shortwave and trough areThis progression…. You’d have absolutely no issues with cold as the second lead wave dampens the flow. It is what it is we’ll see I’d def not be upset with 4-7” of smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 20th is intriguing but that cold press is so insane I'm not sure if there's any room for the GoM energy to do what we needWe’re waiting on models to fully resolve the cutter and then the Monday night - wed AM timeframe. No shot in sam hell models have the 20th pinned down. One threat at a time ladies. I knew the gfs looked good by the sheer number of replies in this thread when I opened the app. Let’s GO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 WB 12Z GEFS, I would wait on starting a thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: We’re waiting on models to fully resolve the cutter and then the Monday night - wed AM timeframe. No shot in sam hell models have the 20th pinned down. One threat at a time ladies. I knew the gfs looked good by the sheer number of replies in this thread when I opened the app. Let’s GO I'm also not convinced the cold will blast through as depicted especially with the milder water temps. I could picture this turning into a wavy front kind of situation as it nears the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 My concern on full display off the 12z GEPS, If this the progression models are honing in on root the hell out of the 14th wave to trend stronger since there’s no other reinforcing cold shotsStrong phase you’re basically boned in DC and Philly Do these maps all seem similar? Unfortunately… . 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok y’all. No thread until later. I feel abused in this democracy. Makes me wanna just go full Pinochet up in here. Thank you. You know will be able to sleep with both eyes closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 As many have stated, clarity isn’t coming soon. Two days? Personally like many of you, I think we need at least some model consensus that there will even be a “storm” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: Low really lurches towards the coast at 120-123 on pivotal... is this a potential tuck situation? I don't trust the backend with the low far away. Never seems to work - but in this case we'd get hit nicely with warning level snow beforehand, so not relying fully on the back. But if it can tuck and chill for just a sec... In this situation what is really creating the snow is the moisture transport across the arctic boundary. This isn't a coma head scenario. We just haven't had an arctic boundary near us to have this kind of set up in so long its not something we are familiar with. But with that kind of boundary all you need is to get some modest moisture transport across the arctic front and it will wring out every drop of moisture into super high ratio pow pow. If you look at the mid level plots from hour 120 and 126 you see there is enough backing in the flow along the front to get the mid level flow across the boundary. Boom. We don't need a super deep or perfect track coastal storm for that to work. Just an amplified enough SW along the boundary to get that cross boundary moisture transport in the mid levels. It's almost like an anafront setup actually. But in this case along the arctic boundary which has much more potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 All models have trended towards the euro except the CMC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 53 minutes ago, stormtracker said: @WinterWxLuvr loves threads btw. All he would do is shit on peoples' positivity, right Luvr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I know on paper the GFS looks good, and this might sound confusing, but I personally am not a fan of the GFS or rest of todays 12z runs so far. I was hoping we’d see a trend towards the 6z control progression of clearing the front first and then developing a second low. The cmc/Ukie/icon/ gfs all have similar evolutions now, I’m just worried that we’re seeing the GFS colder/SE bias at play. If todays guidance so far is correct we’re basically limiting the ceiling here and seriously would have issues with temps being too warm. A control like progression would give us no worries for it being too amped and would give us a chance at an historic major event imo. We can still cash in on the current progression advertised, but meh. See what wrinkle euro throws in here shortly .Seriously? 6-10” areawide with high ratios isn’t a good run for you? Why would we want this thing to amp up and introduce possible temp issues? What you’re rooting for is going to end in a NYC and NE special, I guarantee it. Also, the OP GFS too cold /SE bias isn’t much of a thing anymore since it’s latest upgrade. It led the charge with that last storm showing it further north. From time to time it’s a bit too progressive at h5, but not like it used to be when you could pretty much guarantee the gfs would trend NW by 250+ miles around day 3-4. This storm was never going to be historic, and rooting for some jacked up wave that results from a complicated evolution rarely works out for our latitude. The first storm in a prime window rarely does. It’s the follow up wave or 2 once the colds been established and the boundarys been dragged south that typically hits big for us. Not sure why’d we’d want to complicate things further for this first storm when our airmass isn’t as established as it will be around the 20th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 All models have trended towards the euro except the CMCGEM being on its own is exactly what we want honestly. I’d take a GFS EURO combo all day. . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs and GGEM are both very suppressive in this run. Swing a part of the TPV down to our latitude. But that progression would set up an overrunning type threat around the 23-25th so either way we have multiple paths to win in this pattern which is what I like. We usually fail when we need everything to go "exactly one way". Unfortunately when we all decided to live here we chose to spend all our cap money on other areas and left ourselves with a drunk placekicker with balance issues. We need REALLY wide goalposts if we want to win usually. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I don’t like the CMC solution, but it still seems unsettled with the h5 evolution. How has its performance been lately? at least its trending the right direction the last 3 runs imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? 2 15 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? What has an impact is heisey’s eeyore dealie - I’m trying to send him to the phantom zone… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? We know, but we've gotten rug pulled too many times to put that superstition to bed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? Thank you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dang what a loaded gfs run. Lol warmup @Bob Chill was 100% right about the relax. Ive not been concerned about it and thought it would be VERY brief, but now I'm starting to think it doesn't even happen at all. The higher heights are actually mostly from higher avg heights above the levels we give a crap about, the low and mid levels are reasonably cold, and the STJ is undercutting the pattern with a beautiful EPO/PNA ridge. We could get a snowstorm easy in what was supposed to be the "relax". Then all 3 major guidance systems transition back to a -AO/NAO regime with the STJ undercutting a EPO/PNA ridge. That is the "it" look and it holds for the whole month of Feb on all guidance. I am glad I didn't lower my seasonal snowfall totals when I was thinking about it a week or two ago. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, mappy said: yall know creating a thread doesn't have a single impact on a storm, right? Creating an early storm thread is the NAD27 of forum decorum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But that progression would set up an overrunning type threat around the 23-25th so either way we have multiple paths to win in this pattern which is what I like. We usually fail when we need everything to go "exactly one way". Unfortunately when we all decided to live here we chose to spend all our cap money on other areas and left ourselves with a drunk placekicker with balance issues. We need REALLY wide goalposts if we want to win usually. Yeah, I actually liked the gfs op run verbatim quite a bit. Chances keep coming the whole 16 days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: What has an impact is heisey’s eeyore dealie - I’m trying to send him to the phantom zone… It used to annoy me too, but I actually like it now and hope he keeps it up. It always alerts us to the worst outcome or the pitfalls of the storm, which we need to be alert for. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, stormtracker said: It used to annoy me too, but I actually like it now and hope he keeps it up. It always alerts us to the worst outcome or the pitfalls of the storm, which we need to be alert for. …and remember, he is from Philly, so there is that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now