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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Bad? It kept showing us snow over the last month and...

Think if euro/gfs both agree, we can safely throw out the cmc. And euro/eps has led the way on this. Lets see if this holds today and tomorrow

if I’m going to start a thread, I’d start it on Saturday after the 0z runs

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12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t like the CMC solution, but it still seems unsettled with the h5 evolution. How has its performance been lately?

 

Also unsettled for the 7th storm. Was usually either the most or least snow of globals.

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:


So we’re def not seeing separation like the 6z control, but this might still work out as a modest event


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Don't be greedy this run was damn near perfect, cold smoke event for everyone.  Yea we could root for more amplified but that could introduce other issues.  Obviously we don't get the option but I would stick with this run if I could.  

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I know on paper the GFS looks good, and this might sound confusing, but I personally am not a fan of the GFS or rest of todays 12z runs so far. I was hoping we’d see a trend towards the 6z control progression of clearing the front first and then developing a second low. The cmc/Ukie/icon/ gfs all have similar evolutions now, I’m just worried that we’re seeing the GFS colder/SE bias at play.

If todays guidance so far is correct we’re basically limiting the ceiling here and seriously would have issues with temps being too warm.

A control like progression would give us no worries for it being too amped and would give us a chance at an historic major event imo.

We can still cash in on the current progression advertised, but meh. See what wrinkle euro throws in here shortly


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