Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yes, what the control is doing is exactly what you’d want for a MECS for the SE/Midsantic. and what’s interesting is the OP and control are generally exactly the same up to day 6-7. Check out prior runs H5 is mirrored every run. 12z should be really interesting. Wonder if that perks Psuhoffman up


.

Op and control are identical iirc. Control extends beyond op. Pretty sure that's the only difference. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Op and control are identical iirc. Control extends beyond op. Pretty sure that's the only difference. 

pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of

I don't track deep details beyond 5 days anymore. My memory is telling me they're always copies of each other with no deviation. Lower res would deviate thru time. I'm not certain though. Just a memory artifact.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of

That's my understanding. And no perturbations like the other members.

[winter_warlock]

Sterling lwx. Included the jan 16th storm in their HWO.   Fwiw...

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's my understanding. And no perturbations like the other members.

We drill down too much on the regular lol. Hard not too though. I've changed my ways. I just quick scan beyond 5-6 days and come up with my range of potential outcomes then trim as leads shorten. I don't get excited about anything except a long track until it's locking into a predictable range of outcomes. Usually D4 at the longest. This has completely eliminated my need to spend any time contemplating anything specific that vanishes every 6 hours lol. 

A good analogy is making stock investments. You find one you like. You track it for a while and get a feel for it in general and decide if it's worth investing in at all. Then you set your entry target. When that hits, it's time to act. I'm only committing to potential events that hit my entry target and my parameters are constantly getting tighter lol

ETA: for next week's deal I'll need nearly complete agreement that the western edge isn't going to whiff my yard. Could be under 48 hours b4 I feel confident in this one. Narrow storms with vertical tracks have become one of my least favorite to even look at. I'd rather watch a R/S line put me out of the game on a direct hit than fret over 75 miles of E-W wiggle that divides white yards from frozen mud. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

i thought models were good in nino...didn't the Euro have the 2016 HECS for like 30 straight runs?

They are better in a Nino because often in Nino split flow regimes the northern stream is quiet and if no TPV gets displaced into our area a non factor. 2010 and 2016 were like that. Models have a much easier time resolving stj systems. They are less stochastic. 
 

But this still a NS dominant pattern. The tpv getting displaced above us created that. A couple weeks ago I said I might prefer not having a tpv there. Yes it makes this a colder pattern but it opens the door to complications like suppression from NS waves running interference, miller b scenarios or phased bombs that cut despite a -nao.   This isn’t the typical stj dominant Nino pattern. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

At this point I just want any storm for Tuesday. I’ll take my chance with type. I’m far more concerned with suppression or basically a nonexistent system.

[Eskimo Joe]

I just want the grass covered.

[Heisy]

I don't track deep details beyond 5 days anymore. My memory is telling me they're always copies of each other with no deviation. Lower res would deviate thru time. I'm not certain though. Just a memory artifact.

Exactly, that’s why the 6z run is pretty startling to me. We’re at that range still where we can still see large evolution shifts. Was it a blip? And remember it doesn’t really match up with EPS timing because if the control was right the trailer wave lags another day behind which would extend beyond 144 hours. You have the EPS dumping snow on us by 144 yet the control is still developing the low so there’s a big discrepancy here. 12z is gonna be mighty interesting

All I know is if you want a big snowstorm in VA etc,root for that control scenario


Edit: just about every scenario still on the table, and we can still snow with other evolutions as well, I was just very surprised to see that control run. Offers a new possibility

[dallen7908]

As several have pointed some of the model storms are still ongoing at the end of the 06 UTC EPS run

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this still a NS dominant pattern. The tpv getting displaced above us created that. A couple weeks ago I said I might prefer not having a tpv there. Yes it makes this a colder pattern but it opens the door to complications like suppression from NS waves running interference, miller b scenarios or phased bombs that cut despite a -nao.   This isn’t the typical stj dominant Nino pattern.

You think it gets less NS dominant as we head get closer to the second half? (Sounds like the tpv getting set up in a less ideal spot was a bit of a chaos/bad luck thing? Lol)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Snow mean for 6z. Precipitation ongoing.

This looks really good and implies a very good track for our subforum.  

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

WW might stop worrying about those bad SE trends after this run.

People should stop worrying about each run in general given this setup. We have a monster amplified wave in front of it. The kind that can impact the hemispheric long wave pattern. Then we have a tpv sitting over us with 700 pieces of NS energy rotating around it while an STJ wave comes along just for fun. We’re going to keep getting different looks every op run until we get closer and the cutter is 100% resolved. Even then this is the type of scenario with short range bust potential either way.  
 

[87storms]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They are better in a Nino because often in Nino split flow regimes the northern stream is quiet and if no TPV gets displaced into our area a non factor. 2010 and 2016 were like that. Models have a much easier time resolving stj systems. They are less stochastic. 
 

But this still a NS dominant pattern. The tpv getting displaced above us created that. A couple weeks ago I said I might prefer not having a tpv there. Yes it makes this a colder pattern but it opens the door to complications like suppression from NS waves running interference, miller b scenarios or phased bombs that cut despite a -nao.   This isn’t the typical stj dominant Nino pattern. 

Yea, when looking at the 250mb chart it had a NS dominant vibe...almost looks like a miller b/hybrid type of setup.  There's still a southern stream, but the trough is a little further east than I'd like.  Still looks like the gulf is open for business, so maybe a minor event is still on the table.

[dallen7908]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

People should stop worrying about each run in general given this setup. We have a monster amplified wave in front of it. The kind that can impact the hemispheric lineage pattern. Then we have a tpv sitting over us with 700 pieces of NS energy rotating around it while an STJ wave comes along just for fun. We’re going to keep getting different looks every op run until we get closer and the cutter is 100% resolved. Even then this is the type of scenario with short range bust potential either way.  
 

If you really want us to stop worrying after each run, you should have stopped after one sentence! (But I know what you mean). 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

At this point I just want any storm for Tuesday. I’ll take my chance with type. I’m far more concerned with suppression or basically a nonexistent system.

Most analogs leading into this period were kinda messy and/or some level of missed potential. Jan 04 is the biggest example but nearly all analogs had reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic. Seems to be working out that way in real time. The good thing is most analogs had multiple precip events and that did include all snow some years. My take starting a week ago has been to expect an active period with no clear signals for anything significant. Mixing and/or whiffs are very much on the table. Kinda like what we're seeing play out. 

I'm really warming up to analog analysis. It identifies max potential and personality of how it got there and what happens after pretty accurately if you can sift thru historical data. I'm finding the most relevant analogs to be very helpful in seeing the forest thru the trees. I have my own personal algorithm for dealing with old analogs where some people hold the factual opinion that it was colder more often and snowed easier when the setups were less than ideal. Next week's depth of cold takes care of that this time but it's an important consideration if you like guessing right lol

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

ZFP for DC metro from LWX at 936am

MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the mid 20s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs
in the mid 30s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow.
Lows 15 to 20.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People should stop worrying about each run in general given this setup. We have a monster amplified wave in front of it. The kind that can impact the hemispheric lineage pattern. Then we have a tpv sitting over us with 700 pieces of NS energy rotating around it while an STJ wave comes along just for fun. We’re going to keep getting different looks every op run until we get closer and the cutter is 100% resolved. Even then this is the type of scenario with short range bust potential either way.  
 

If you have time, could you show me the tpv on the map? (I'd like to track it to see if/when it changes or moves into a better spot)

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think it gets less NS dominant as we head get closer to the second half? (Sounds like the tpv getting set up in a less ideal spot was a bit of a chaos/bad luck thing? Lol)

Think of it the other way around. NS dominant pattern (as shown) is anomalous and likely won't last. The high latitudes are going thru an extreme event and that ripples downstream. Like PSU already said, the ns is the result of the proximity of the TPV. TPVs are massive and suck in and spit out both the NS and polar stream. Being so close is what is dominating the pattern. TPVs don't park over the lakes for long basically ever. 

Something that I can see making Feb a NS month is what the CFS has been showing. A linked EPO/PNA ridge will almost always result in a NS dominant pattern here because the southern stream is knocked pretty far south. It's not common for a SS wave undercut those ridges and become a beast by itself. Almost always requires a NS feature. Feb 2003 is a good example. There wasn't a ton of blocking. On the means it looks like no blocking but it was there when it mattered. However, favorable storm track was +PNA driven. Jan/Feb 03 has been popping as an analog. Which would be good because it was cold for a long time in Feb/Mar 2003 due to the stable +PNA. Right now weekly and monthly guidance is showing just that for Feb. We'll see how it goes 

[Heisy]

If you have time, could you show me the tpv on the map? (I'd like to track it to see if/when it changes or moves into a better spot)

.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This model has been very good now let's see how it does tranitioning from warm and wet to cold and snowy!

          For clarification, I just want to note that the NBM is not a model like the GFS, HRRR....    It's the National Blend of Models which blends and calibrates guidance from actual models.     It accounts for the solutions among deterministic runs and ensemble members from numerous modeling systems around the world and is designed to capture signals of consensus.     So, it's pretty nice to see it show a healthy signal for next week at this range.

[Paleocene]

Just now, high risk said:

          For clarification, I just want to note that the NBM is not a model like the GFS, HRRR....    It's the National Blend of Models which blends and calibrates guidance from actual models.     It accounts for the solutions among deterministic runs and ensemble members from numerous modeling systems around the world and is designed to capture signals of consensus.     So, it's pretty nice to see it show a healthy signal for next week at this range.

Thanks. Is there a document/link somewhere that explains what the % shares that make up NBM are? Are those temporally consistent or do they shift?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

This window has yet to produce a decent run on any model. What a time for the Nino jet to shut down

Bob just alluded to this also. I’m not a huge fan of the big pna ridge when there is blocking. It’s critical in a hostile Atlantic. No way we snow with a +nao and -pna. But a lot of our best Nino snow periods came with a nao block and -pna. It prevents the NS from squashing or running interference.  It can work. Dec 2009 was a pna ridge. But remember that wasn’t a long lead tracking storm. From 5+ days there were doubts it would come together. Because of the pna ridge we needed NS energy to dive in and phase. A huge PNA ridge guarantees the NS will be diving in over us and means we need it to play nice. Opens up phasing issues and all that jazz. I tend to prefer the simple route of a system crashing into the southwest sliding east under a quiet split flow with the NS out of the Fng way and the the stj system having room to amplify and attack the blocked in cold in the east. That’s the least complicated path to snow in a Nino. 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of

 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't track deep details beyond 5 days anymore. My memory is telling me they're always copies of each other with no deviation. Lower res would deviate thru time. I'm not certain though. Just a memory artifact.

You’re right. The control is run off the same unperturbed data as the op but at a lower resolution.  It’s the unperturbed base for the ensemble members.  It tends to be pretty identical to the op out to about day 7 then they often start to diverge some due to the resolution differences. 

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think it gets less NS dominant as we head get closer to the second half? (Sounds like the tpv getting set up in a less ideal spot was a bit of a chaos/bad luck thing? Lol)

Bob ninjad me. I don’t know. If we get the huge epo pna ridge some guidance shows maybe. That has a lot of upside but some risk of suppression and miller b type outcomes also. I doubt we would be skunked but 1969 is an example of how that can be less epic here. We got some snowstorms but New England got smoked by late developing miller b storms that gave our area 3-6” and them 2-3 feet. 

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If you have time, could you show me the tpv on the map? (I'd like to track it to see if/when it changes or moves into a better spot)

It’s the huge pinwheel on top of us dominating the whole flow. You can’t miss it. Right now it’s up on NW Canada which is bad and why all the cutters. But the storm this weekend phases all the prices of energy together and consolidates into one monster vortex right on top of us.  Look at an h5 map you won’t miss it. 

[psuhoffman]

It’s a good sign that no one has even mentioned the 6z gfs had a PD2 type storm out in unicorn land. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a good sign that no one has even mentioned the 6z gfs had a PD2 type storm out in unicorn land. 

that kind of setup is an actual possibility with a -EPO/+PNA, undercutting SW trough, and displaced TPV, but I digress

[WinterWxLuvr]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Most analogs leading into this period were kinda messy and/or some level of missed potential. Jan 04 is the biggest example but nearly all analogs had reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic. Seems to be working out that way in real time. The good thing is most analogs had multiple precip events and that did include all snow some years. My take starting a week ago has been to expect an active period with no clear signals for anything significant. Mixing and/or whiffs are very much on the table. Kinda like what we're seeing play out. 

I'm really warming up to analog analysis. It identifies max potential and personality of how it got there and what happens after pretty accurately if you can sift thru historical data. I'm finding the most relevant analogs to be very helpful in seeing the forest thru the trees. I have my own personal algorithm for dealing with old analogs where some people hold the factual opinion that it was colder more often and snowed easier when the setups were less than ideal. Next week's depth of cold takes care of that this time but it's an important consideration if you like guessing right lol

Your last paragraph is 100% spot on IMO. That is where forecasting is going. Especially with AI exploding on the scene, analyzing past scenarios, incorporating what happened in time from those initial observations, and calculations that bring in biases and errors will end up being the way that weather is forecast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a good sign that no one has even mentioned the 6z gfs had a PD2 type storm out in unicorn land. 

Funny you mention that. The euro at 12z yesterday put that very storm into my head

[dallen7908]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If you have time, could you show me the tpv on the map? (I'd like to track it to see if/when it changes or moves into a better spot)

Go to Tropical Tidbits

Northern Hemisphere Projection

GFS 500mb Geopotential height and MSLP

Click animate and you can examine how the MSLP tracks the height pattern