Weather Will Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 WB 6Z snow mean is meh, but less meh than 6Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: QPF shrinking on the NW side and the mean wave displaced far off the coast. Clearly doesn't look like the gfs op. The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z? Nvm...user error. I saw 1/10 as 1/11 and vice versa. Wtf is wrong with me 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Latest NBM 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Latest NBMLooks way better than the nmb from last weekend storm lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 For the 19-20th potential, for now the tendency is for surface low development a little too far north and offshore. Might be a case of a little too much +PNA. Not seeing much of an indication of a shortwave taking the southern route- the primary energy would be embedded in the flow overtop the ridge. With that vortex shifting from south central Canada eastward to Atlantic Canada, NS energy associated with that may get involved a bit too late. Still almost 10 days out so plenty of time for changes in the key players. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 For the 19-20th potential, for now the tendency is for surface low development a little too far north and offshore. Might be a case of a little too much +PNA. Not seeing much of an indication of a shortwave taking the southern route- the primary energy would be embedded in the flow overtop the ridge. With that vortex shifting from south central Canada eastward to Atlantic Canada, NS energy associated with that may get involved a bit too late. Still almost 10 days out so plenty of time for changes in the key players.This window has yet to produce a decent run on any model. What a time for the Nino jet to shut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6Z euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6z euro has a more consolidated southern vort, and the piece of the TPV that eventually phases with it looks to be digging more. imo, it'd go north & stronger which is good 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 First bit of discussion I have seen for next Tuesday from Mount Holly in the AFD. Some dirty talk in there. Looking towards the beginning of the week guidance is showing a deep 250mb trough swinging through the central US. This sends a strong 250mb jet over the region and guidance has shown the potential for some weak cyclogensis to our south. The consensus amongst guidance is that a low pressure system will form to our south and stays to the south as it moves towards the northeast. This keeps the forecast area entirely in the cold sector of the system and in the right rear quad of the 250mb jet. That should lead to broad synoptic lift and with moisture in place we may see accumulating snow across the region. Based on the 18z ensembles that went into the 01z NBM, the nearly the entire forecast area has 50% chance of exceeding 1" of snow and given the area would be in the cold sector there would be no immediate rainfall to melt the snow. At this point limiting factors would be the speed of the system rather than thermal profiles. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The eps runs to 144 correct? And when does it come out? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The eps runs to 144 correct? And when does it come out? Thanks Now. Looks a bit further SE than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I am a no nothing but this feels like it will be a close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 EPS is actually more amplified with the vort. wonder if some of those lows develop later and bring precip in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Duca892 said: I am a no nothing but this feels like it will be a close but no cigar The conventional thinking is it's good to have the storm bit too far south at this range, as these storms always trend NW as we get closer. That might be a weenie rule actually. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The conventional thinking is it's good to have the storm bit too far south at this range, as these storms always trend NW as we get closer. That might be a weenie rule actually. I was going to say the same thing. I rather be on the northern fringe at 6 days out 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Control has a way different evolution than 00z. This was gonna be interesting to say the least. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Control has a way different evolution than 00z. This was gonna be interesting to say the least . the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluence 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluenceYes, what the control is doing is exactly what you’d want for a MECS for the SE/Midsantic. and what’s interesting is the OP and control are generally exactly the same up to day 6-7. Check out prior runs H5 is mirrored every run. 12z should be really interesting. Wonder if that perks Psuhoffman up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Not a fan of how this guy makes his comparisons, but the cutter track has been highly uncertain even 48 hours out. This is why we shouldn’t bank on a certain track for 16-17 https://x.com/chasingwconnor/status/1745265130592424081?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Control is just the OP run at lower resolution. Like here is last nights 00z comparison. I expect 12z to throw in some wrinkles Edit: woops I posted different hours but you get the idea . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: The conventional thinking is it's good to have the storm bit too far south at this range, as these storms always trend NW as we get closer. That might be a weenie rule actually. It isn’t true. It’s wishful thinking. Sometimes they go right on by to the south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Snow mean for 6z. Precipitation ongoing. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It isn’t true. It’s wishful thinking. Sometimes they go right on by to the south. Yes it can happen, esp in cases where legit cold is pressing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Snow mean for 6z. Precipitation ongoing. Better or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest NBM This model has been very good now let's see how it does tranitioning from warm and wet to cold and snowy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Better or worse? Pretty similar to that point. Slightly less out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 About noon yesterday when I said in this thread that "I would rather place this lp near Myrtle Beach than 275 se of NYC", I of course had no idea that future runs of the Euro would come close to that desire. I only knew from historical observation that a coastal hugger from Charleston to Norfolk with cold air in place usually does the trick for inland areas. January 29 of 1966 witnessed the coldest major snowstorm of my life. At 4 pm in Augusta County I recorded whiteout conditions with a temperature of +4. The lp at 6 pm was near New Bern in southeast N.C.. Tuesday's threat as currently modeled should make many happy with a light to moderate several inches of snow. Changes can and will occur at 5 days out. The Euro could fringe inland area's with lp 50 - 100 miles off the N.C. coast. The GFS would only give flurries with no organization but a frisky sw and incoming trough over western Va. enhances snowfall. The next few days should be very interesting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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