Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[stormtracker]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Weak and disorganized I'd prefer at this range to another wound up cutter though.  Room for improvement.

Truth

[Paleocene]

The chase for modeled cold is looking good though:

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

12z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 16th

It’s closer at H5 to 6z vs 0z. Just doesn’t dig as much. 

[paulythegun]

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Growing up in southwestern and then central Ohio I will confirm for you that the same excruciating misses on the margins occurs for midwest cutters as it does for us. So many times in the mid-1980s forecast 6-10 inch snows for me just east of Columbus would end up two counties north. We just don't notice for the reasons you said.

 

As for whether the presence of cutters in the longer term is more stable, maybe? But there is a huge difference in a cutter at 7 days that is modeled through north dakota and at game time ended up in eastern Ohio - but we don't follow those swings that closely either

TL/DR - WxUSAF is right. 

great points all. i just wrote all those wobbles off as "different cows being hit by rain or snow" but now i remember that there are cities in the midwest

[MN Transplant]

Just a completely different evolution than the Euro.  That said, the players are there.  The euro pairs the shortwave in the SW with the trough diving down through the Plains.  The GFS has both of these things, but doesn't sync them up.

[WxUSAF]

Meanwhile the GGEM has a modest hit. Best solution it’s had yet I think.

[Kevin Reilly]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think we consider cutters well-modeled because we don’t usually give 2 shits if the track goes over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, or Minneapolis. It’s all (usually) the same outcome for us. The changes to the Chicago snow forecast I think shows that they are subject to the same wiggles that mean life and death to our snow totals.

It does not help that there is a 40+ degree water body nearby the Great Lakes even if more local as compared to the issues we have from the Atlantic Ocean and even the Chesapeake Bay.

[Shad]

This is not a bad look at this range, CMC took a step toward the GFS and Euro.  It sure looks like the cold is coming.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Shad said:

This is not a bad look at this range, CMC took a step toward the GFS and Euro.  It sure looks like the cold is coming.

That's the biggest positive here. Even if next Tues. doesn't quite work out...it's definitely cold (and not just passing weekend cold like we got last year, lol). With an active STJ, you'd think the historically typical 2nd half niño potential is gonna be there.

[Terpeast]

Just looked at all models - Euro 6z is more amped than GFS and CMC, but CMC did trend towards Euro/GFS. GFS 12z is close, but hasn't trended much in either direction. It's in the range of error/possible solutions at a week out.

What we know is that 1) colder air is coming, and 2) there'll be a wave along the boundary. That's all for now.

[mattie g]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s closer at H5 to 6z vs 0z. Just doesn’t dig as much. 

Yeah...the NS energy isn't as strung out as it was at 0z and prior, but it didn't drop in and phase like at 6z. Closer than it had been, so I take that as a decent run, all things considered.

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Meanwhile the GGEM has a modest hit. Best solution it’s had yet I think.

Can't see "ground truth" for the Canadian past 162 on TT yet, but you can see that energy consolidate more and swing through a day later.

Edit: Just looked at Pivotal. Makes sense given what was going on at 500.

[Ji]

i feel like next week is going to make or break our winter

[Shad]

if we cant score by jan 22 i dont know that we ever will again.....quite optimistic on what im seeing

[Darkstorm]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

if we cant score by jan 22 i dont know that we ever will again.....quite optimistic on what im seeing

Quite sure we will even if we don't score by 22nd we will again someday. 

[MN Transplant]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i feel like next week is going to make or break our winter

I haven't been looking at the long-term stuff, but diving into the GFS it is interesting that there is a regular cadence of chances in a broad sense.  There is effectively a re-load every few days, which is really apparent looking at the precipitable water.  That gives us chances, even if nothing is coming together on the model right now.

• 9th 
• 12/13th 
• 15/16th 
• 18/19th 
• 21st

 

 

[aldie 22]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

i feel like next week is going to make or break our winter

I read this on FB as well seems to be a common theme

[psuhoffman]

I wanted to use last nights Euro to highlight how chaotic the period from the 15-22nd is going to be and why there is a lot of potential and several legit threads IMO but none are likely to resolved early on guidance.  I know using an operational at that range for details is silly but all the ensembles agree on the same general pattern evolution and location of key features, the differences are all within the expected margin or error so in this case the euro op can show us what it COULD look like within the paradigm the ensemble guidance is hinting at.  But I am NOT saying its going to look exactly like this...my point is actually with all the noise in the pattern there is no way any one run is going to nail all this, I just want to lay out some of the options.  

Look at the setup for the first threat next week on the euro

Initially everything is anchored around the old weakening at this point TPV vortex, feature A.  A strong NS SW, C, is rotating around behind while an STJ feature D is swinging by at the same time.  A is way too far west for where we actually want it...but luckily on the euro the TPV is elongated east over the top with a feature B swinging through the 50/50 space and creates just enough suppression in the flow.  The euro also perfectly phases C and D at almost the ideal spot for us.   Without that none of this would work.  There is also a kicker E.   But look how noisy this is.  These features are all interacting.  This is not the same as if the vortex was out near 50/50 and left the playing field void of NS interference for some STJ wave to come along and attack the entrenched cold locked in by the 50/50.  That is the simple nino path to a HECS and the one guidance can lock in on the general storm idea from 10 days out and we can reasonably get excited at long leads. 

This has potential, we have had many big snowstorms through history from a similar convoluted setup working out...but it can also fail easily if all these moving parts don't come together and there is no way in hell guidance will consistently show these features run to run correctly at range.  

For example lose the phase between C and D and its suppressed.  Lose that feature B rotating through 50/50 and its a cutter.  Change any one of these variables and the whole thing changes one way or another.  

And what happens with this sets up whatever comes after.  Look at the op euro after this storm.

This might be an even better setup for a big snowstorm here.  But we are getting more NS interaction that ideal or normal for a nino.  Look at A/B/C/D out west.  How those all interact would determine how this goes.  But the atlantic is so damn perfect here we simply need one of those to be dominant enough to dig.  Our goalposts on the initial track of any wave ejecting from the west would be HUGE in that setup.  But they could all run interference and squash each other during the 3 day window we have here where its perfect for something to come along.  Or they could all phase out west and cut off and sit there until its too late.  Ideally we would want one of these waves to eject as healthy as possible and slide east.  

But what happens with the first wave would determine if it even looks that way.  The GFS doesn't phase C and D and so it weakly slides a wave off the coast...and the main TPV then doesn't weaken and get pulled into the new phased storm the euro has...and so it gets left behind to drop into the lakes and likely suppress and squash any chance we have for the window I showed on the op euro above.  

Looking across guidance...it seems we need a more phased solution from wave 1 to have a better chance at the next threat after.  Whether that phased storm gives us snow or not...it pulls the old vortext east into the 50/50 and sets up a better scenario for around the 20th.  So IMO we really really want to root for a euro win on that regardless of the eventual exact track of that storm.  Hit or miss a phased bomb on that 16th storm sets up a better scenario after.  

But the main point is while this period has a lot of potential and I could see how we get back to back snowstorms...it also is crazy noisy and depends on a lot of NS moving parts that guidance is extremely unlikely to be correct on from any range at all.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just hoping the Euro holds and doesn’t completely cave to the gfs. C’mon days of old when the euro set the trends.

[winter_warlock]

Updated. Noaa. Wpc ! They like the storm idea....

 

 

[WEATHER53]

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Well, here we are.

Winter is coming.  No, seriously this time.   In about 10-50 days.  We got this

Delayed IS denied 

[Jersey Andrew]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wanted to use last nights Euro to highlight how chaotic the period from the 15-22nd is going to be and why there is a lot of potential and several legit threads IMO but none are likely to resolved early on guidance.  I know using an operational at that range for details is silly but all the ensembles agree on the same general pattern evolution and location of key features, the differences are all within the expected margin or error so in this case the euro op can show us what it COULD look like within the paradigm the ensemble guidance is hinting at.  But I am NOT saying its going to look exactly like this...my point is actually with all the noise in the pattern there is no way any one run is going to nail all this, I just want to lay out some of the options.  

Look at the setup for the first threat next week on the euro

Initially everything is anchored around the old weakening at this point TPV vortex, feature A.  A strong NS SW, C, is rotating around behind while an STJ feature D is swinging by at the same time.  A is way too far west for where we actually want it...but luckily on the euro the TPV is elongated east over the top with a feature B swinging through the 50/50 space and creates just enough suppression in the flow.  The euro also perfectly phases C and D at almost the ideal spot for us.   Without that none of this would work.  There is also a kicker E.   But look how noisy this is.  These features are all interacting.  This is not the same as if the vortex was out near 50/50 and left the playing field void of NS interference for some STJ wave to come along and attack the entrenched cold locked in by the 50/50.  That is the simple nino path to a HECS and the one guidance can lock in on the general storm idea from 10 days out and we can reasonably get excited at long leads. 

This has potential, we have had many big snowstorms through history from a similar convoluted setup working out...but it can also fail easily if all these moving parts don't come together and there is no way in hell guidance will consistently show these features run to run correctly at range.  

For example lose the phase between C and D and its suppressed.  Lose that feature B rotating through 50/50 and its a cutter.  Change any one of these variables and the whole thing changes one way or another.  

And what happens with this sets up whatever comes after.  Look at the op euro after this storm.

This might be an even better setup for a big snowstorm here.  But we are getting more NS interaction that ideal or normal for a nino.  Look at A/B/C/D out west.  How those all interact would determine how this goes.  But the atlantic is so damn perfect here we simply need one of those to be dominant enough to dig.  Our goalposts on the initial track of any wave ejecting from the west would be HUGE in that setup.  But they could all run interference and squash each other during the 3 day window we have here where its perfect for something to come along.  Or they could all phase out west and cut off and sit there until its too late.  Ideally we would want one of these waves to eject as healthy as possible and slide east.  

But what happens with the first wave would determine if it even looks that way.  The GFS doesn't phase C and D and so it weakly slides a wave off the coast...and the main TPV then doesn't weaken and get pulled into the new phased storm the euro has...and so it gets left behind to drop into the lakes and likely suppress and squash any chance we have for the window I showed on the op euro above.  

Looking across guidance...it seems we need a more phased solution from wave 1 to have a better chance at the next threat after.  Whether that phased storm gives us snow or not...it pulls the old vortext east into the 50/50 and sets up a better scenario for around the 20th.  So IMO we really really want to root for a euro win on that regardless of the eventual exact track of that storm.  Hit or miss a phased bomb on that 16th storm sets up a better scenario after.  

But the main point is while this period has a lot of potential and I could see how we get back to back snowstorms...it also is crazy noisy and depends on a lot of NS moving parts that guidance is extremely unlikely to be correct on from any range at all.  

Do you anticipate an overrunning setup this year akin to PDII February 2003? February has been hyped as the real deal for East Coast snowstorms so trying to keep the hope.

[mattie g]

Was peeking at the CMC at 240 (yes...an op at range) and am seeing what I think are some good things (but I'm just a dweeb, so grain of salt and all).

1. Big ol' block over the Davis Strait
2. Piece of energy is rotating around the PV and dives in around Montana
3. Split flow with southern stream energy lurking around Texas
4. PNA spikes well up into Canada on a decent axis due to low heights stretching south of the Aleutians
5. Lower heights in the 50/50 region
6. Plenty of cold around

You can definitely see some big potential there. Looking forward (with a little trepidation) to see where it goes from here...

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do you anticipate an overrunning setup this year akin to PDII February 2003? February has been hyped as the real deal for East Coast snowstorms so trying to keep the hope.

That took one of the craziest evolutions of all our HECS storms.  A ridiculous 50/50 at exactly the right time despite a positive NAO, a 1040 arctic high in the exact right spot/time, and a STJ wave came along at the perfect time to take advantage but it was strung out initially so that it didn't push too far north as the block departed.  There are no other examples anything like it among our 15" plus snowstorms and I would NEVER predict something like that again.  Could we get a more modest overrunning event though, something like Jan 2004 comes to mind...sure.  But the same general setup we need for a bigger storm is the same one for those.  It's just in the lesser overrunning events we were lacking a stronger wave, or the confluence was too strong, or something went wrong to prevent a coastal from amplifying after the initial WAA precip, or like in the case of 2004 the coastal developed too late for us so we got WAA then missed out on part 2 of the storm.  

[87storms]

Under absolutely no circumstances do we want to be in the bullseye at a week out.  Forecasting has come a long way, but not that far.  It's also a logical flaw to assume that a storm will all of a sudden stop trending once it bullseyes our area.  That line of thinking turned into a failure with the last storm, for most of the area.

Track the cold and monitor vorts.  Well, that's my strategy at least.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Was peeking at the CMC at 240 (yes...an op at range) and am seeing what I think are some good things (but I'm just a dweeb, so grain of salt and all).

1. Big ol' block over the David Strait
2. Piece of energy is rotating around the PV and dives in around Montana
3. Split flow with southern stream energy lurking around Texas
4. PNA spikes well up into Canada on a decent axis due to low pressure south of the Aleutians
5. Lower heights in the 50/50 region
6. Plenty of cold around

You can definitely see some big potential there. Looking forward (with a little trepidation) to see where it goes from here...

 

it was close to a storm day 10 but just missed out on lining all the parts up.  But it falls into the category of the GFS, doesn't phase the storm around the 17th so it rotates the TPV west and that is a suppressive look, it also could even open the door to another cutter if something were to phase.

I know that sounds counter intuitive, how can it both be a more suppressive look AND more likely to cut.  Because if you put the vortex over the upper midwest like that...any weak wave is going to get squashed.  So we need something to phase for that to work.  But if it does phase...with the trough anchored that far west...and without something in the 50/50 space to suppress the flow along the east Coast...the storm could cut north west of us.  We are again, left needing more moving parts to go perfectly.  And sometimes they do.  Sometimes you just get lucky!  But man I would feel way way way better if we could just get that TPV into the 50/50 space.  

[psuhoffman]

12z GFS offered another way to fail lol....fails to phase threat 1.   TPV stays west intially to suppress the next wave.  Then it does slide east into the perfect spot...but a NS SW dives down from the north pole and dives southwest!!!! and phases with a system in California and cuts off on the west coast pumping a huge ridge in the east before anything else can come along.   I have NEVER seen that before ever...a system that starts out over the north pole...with a trough in the east and an EPO ridge...dives southwest and cuts off along the west coast.  WTF

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it was close to a storm day 10 but just missed out on lining all the parts up.  But it falls into the category of the GFS, doesn't phase the storm around the 17th so it rotates the TPV west and that is a suppressive look, it also could even open the door to another cutter if something were to phase.

I know that sounds counter intuitive, how can it both be a more suppressive look AND more likely to cut.  Because if you put the vortex over the upper midwest like that...any weak wave is going to get squashed.  So we need something to phase for that to work.  But if it does phase...with the trough anchored that far west...and without something in the 50/50 space to suppress the flow along the east Coast...the storm could cut north west of us.  We are again, left needing more moving parts to go perfectly.  And sometimes they do.  Sometimes you just get lucky!  But man I would feel way way way better if we could just get that TPV into the 50/50 space.  

That's fair, but regarding the 50/50, it looks to me like we have that TPV elongation thing you mentioned above, and that might be enough to keep a storm from cutting. We'd be on a knife's edge, but it could be enough.

I'm with you in that we'd be FAR better off with something anchored at 50/50!

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GFS offered another way to fail lol....fails to phase threat 1.   TPV stays west intially to suppress the next wave.  Then it does slide east into the perfect spot...but a NS SW dives down from the north pole and dives southwest!!!! and phases with a system in California and cuts off on the west coast pumping a huge ridge in the east before anything else can come along.   I have NEVER seen that before ever...a system that starts out over the north pole...with a trough in the east and an EPO ridge...dives southwest and cuts off along the west coast.  WTF

I think I'd rather be you guys around 1/15-1/16 than us up here.  If I could put odds in Vegas now on a VA/DC snow event that misses NY in that period I would.  I think anything that ejects 1/17-1/18 is an AL/TN/GA/SC snow event probably.

[Terpeast]

12z gefs trended better and closer to the coast with more precip over us for jan 16

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill @Terpeast @WxUSAF @CAPE @brooklynwx99

Ok team...please save my sanity and help me understand WTF is going on here.  And yes I know its a long range GFS op and unlikely to go down this way, BUT I have seen this actually happen several times the last few years so the point is why does this keep happening not whether this one run will or wont go this way.  

Look at this BEUTIFUL longwave setup 

Absolutely PERFECT pacific here, trough axis west of AK, huge beautiful EPO ridge, cut off pac energy (4) about to slide into the SW, old TPV sliding northeast towards the 50/50 space on the altantic side.  Given the longwave pattern you would expect 1 and 2 to dig south into the plains and 3/4 to interact then slide east in this split flow.  Right?  But look what actually happens with 1/2/3/4

Depsite an absolutely PERFECT pacific AND atlantic longwave pattern, despite everything Ive' ever seen through history until the last few years...they all dive south/southwest and phase into a monster trough in the southwest somehow...dirictly UNDER the EPO ridge.  This get's back to the argument I was having with chuck the other day where an EPO ridge has done us absolutely no good lately because instead of the cold coming in due to it pressing east which is historically what is supposed to happen, the wavelenghts just get incredibly short and whatever NS energy comes down just dives southwest and cuts off into the southwest UNDER the EPO ridge.  It gets even more ridiculous from there

So by the end of the run, dispite a picture perfect longwave configuration on both sides..a beautiful green land block, a perfect pacific and atlantic longwave configuration...we have a huge cutoff vortex in the west and a huge SER.  

Again...this is not to say this WILL happen...but I have seen this ACTUALLY happen several times the last 5 years or so.  WHY?  What am I missing here?  Why is that longwave configuration leading to all that energy dumping into the west?  I am tired of people just saying "its the pac"  The pacific longwave pattern is perfect there...that trough shouldnt be there.  Please help explain this.