Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gefs looks like 12z hopefully the eps12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 16 minutes ago, Ji said: its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016 Look down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 basically we are in the same boat as we were last night Euro has something Gfs and Canadien dont.... who is gonna cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run. yep. Still laughable how far it is from EPS. We will see what happens tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Just now, Ji said: basically we are in the same boat as we were last night Euro has something Gfs and Canadien dont.... who is gonna cave Gfs and Canadian have something just just not as exciting as the euro was. It’s getting closer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 A day's worth of GEFS trends. 00z still an improvement and appears to have done away with lots of ultra suppressed members given the clearer precip and MSLP presentation, but the bulk of the tracks still have some work to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Gefs 4 run trend with precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 @baltosquidbeat me to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: What about the MRF, AVN and NOGAPS? We are all too fancy now for those models Don’t forget about the NGM and LFM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever.So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours. 6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situationsYou see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I do fear the dwindling hours. Not that it's an insurmountable adjustment (in fact it's extremely within reason to adjust to a win), but it does feel like one or two bad days of runs would leave us statistically unlikely to see the kind of changes necessary to get a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Here’s the “skip” on the cmc as well. We need that second low to develop faster and closer to the coast, like the euro or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever. So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours. 6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situations You see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible. . The big reason to consider discounting any of the solutions we’ve seen so far is that we still have to clear that second cutter before the models can zero in on a likely outcome. Until then, everything is low confidence and low skill. I don’t think the model runs tonight “failed” at all. If anything, they’ve picked up a signal that there will be a storm or two with cold air, plus some favorable trends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 LR GFS has a nice -EPO.. that's what I want to see.. and +PNA. Let's get this thing going.. Whole world and the subtropics are really wet right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: LR GFS has a nice -EPO.. that's what I want to see.. and +PNA. Let's get this thing going.. Whole world and the subtropics are really wet right now. i think the moon is wet too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the moon is wet too 2016 is best analog, but Fall/Winter 2023-24 is #1 right now for global precipitable water since 1948 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Don't know what this is bit ill take itSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016 Yeah like something over the Gulf of Alaska. Correlation works less after Jan, into Feb-Mar though. +0.53 in Jan, +0.3 in Feb, +0.2 in March <(closer we can get to GOA low with a mean trough over the east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 GEPS median took a massive leap forward at 00Z. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Terp is right about that cutter. It’s a big storm and will impact how things look up top leading into the 16-17th event. Models are trying their best to hone in on the 500mb setup, but it’s pretty clear that theyre having trouble deciphering what’s going on given the significant run to run changes at h5 on each model. Once that cutter comes and goes, the envelope of outcomes should tighten drastically. I actually thought today’s trends at 500mb were encouraging. Surface didn’t quite get there due to timing / strength of certain features but there’s plenty of time for those pieces to come together between now and Tuesday. Snow mean on the EPS looked the best it’s looked all season earlier today. The GEPS median looks much better tonight as well. It’s doable, but we will need a little luck to get there - as always. Pretty obvious we all want to see something significant after what we’ve endured the past few years, but I’d sure as heck take a light to moderate snow event to get everyone on the board and get this late winter snow rally started. Some snow cover leading into the 19th and beyond when the longwave pattern gets tasty AF? Yes please. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1012 SFC low just on the GA coast at 135 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Snow, starts at 135. still going at 144. Low is stronger, LOOKS like it's still gonna just miss to our east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 "biggest" snow totals from I-95 S and E. Looks like 3-5. N and W 1-3 ish 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 WB OZ EURO 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EURO All these pages need to come to a standard damn measurements. They vary wildly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Fringed...:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I wish it was Monday night and we saw this map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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