GATECH Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Who is cleaning up the roller coaster? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12z gfs was much faster because it was still in the middle of deciding between which wave to focus on. 18z is much more aligned with icon/euro progression . Trailer wave now gaining traction at this hour, it’s a bit farther E than Euro though so this might be out to sea but I’m happy about the GFS caving to that progression . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Very light snow at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 light snow at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, psuhoffman said: man if that strong wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside. yup, that confluence is the game changer 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, psuhoffman said: man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside. it doesn't get there but appreciate seeing 3 smart posters in a row saying they like the trend 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 still light snow at 150, but doesn't appear to be an organized low so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 looks like the scenario @Heisy described. It's a weak low that slid out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 moderate snow central virginia 144 .....not where we want it yet but you can see the potential for future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside. Lol at me saying 5 minutes before the run to probably expect an out to sea run or 2. This is absolutely fine. It’s the GFS’ cave run. Get the trailer wave backed up a little farther W in future runs and we good. The GFS doing this just gives more credit towards euro camp. Cya all at 00z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1-3" area wide. 1 toward the cities..3 for Cape. So timing has moved toward the Euro. We're not done yet yall! See ya at 0z 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: still light snow at 150, but doesn't appear to be an organized low so far it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What you all said. Pretty big step toward a 12z euro-like solution, but can’t put it together. Euro has more southern stream energy. GFS doesn’t have that and splits the northern stream energy into pieces. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, psuhoffman said: it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat. I actually like where we are rn. Should be a fun few days 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: I actually like where we are rn. Should be a fun few days I feel a lot better than I did coming into today. The flavor of this threat changed in a way I wasn't expecting...and it was a favorable change for a change. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: I actually like where we are rn. Should be a fun few days this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nice to finally see that cold will not be the problem if the event materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS and ECMWF are actually really similar at this point, for this range. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed... shocker 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: 1-3" area wide. 1 toward the cities..3 for Cape. So timing has moved toward the Euro. We're not done yet yall! See ya at 0z Just now, psuhoffman said: it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat. Yup...despite it sliding away, I actually like the larger scale changes in some weird fashion and that it's trending toward the Euro-type solution. And even still, we manage to squeeze some light snow out of it. I am feeling more confident in the probability for at least more than a dusting from this, and it will also be quite cold. So definitely a wintry feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Ji said: this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3 I actually agree with this. This isnt good. Chuck is honking about -NAO and a favorable PNA and I'm agreeing with JB. End times man, end times. 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Ji said: this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3 It looks like it's already adjusting, or trying to so to speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Intrigued to see how GEFS will pick up on the euro idea. If the OP is starting to cave, should hopefully see some nice members at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 the synoptics continue to look amazing for the 20th 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Well that was a wet fart of a GFS run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually agree with this. This isnt good. Chuck is honking about -NAO and a favorable PNA and I'm agreeing with JB. End times man, end times. Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I feel ok with this one. I was looking down in Texas at the trough. It was slower and sharper. Encouraging. 528 line near by…also fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Though the GFS has trended toward the ECM off the SC coast, the pattern is too progressive and its still OTS like the 12z ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormy said: Though the GFS has trended toward the ECM off the SC coast, the pattern is too progressive and its still OTS like the 12z ECM. the 12z ECMWF has a coastal storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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