Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I can't do the emotional roller coaster anymore so if the models lose this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm out.

You gotta hang in there man.  Don't be the one on the coaster who throws up.  Give it at least until Sunday 0z at least.  Be a real Mid Atl and hope until hope has run out

[Heisy]

This is evolving towards a frontrunner wave escaping and the trailing energy swinging around behind type deal which is a much better setup than what most guidance was suggesting yesterday.  

Yeppers, I didn’t foresee that possibility until I noticed the 6z eps/control hint at it. It allows the Front running wave to press the cold a little better. Then question becomes how much drag does the trailer wave have. If you noticed, the 12z euro actually missed a phase down south. Wonder if that would have been better or worst for us though.


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[CAPE]

A Pacific jet extension sets up a favorable Pacific for the potential storm around the 20th. An extended NPAC Jet is generally favored in a Nino, and the MJO forcing moving away from the MC will help to facilitate it, resulting in a +PNA with the NE Pac low moving into a better location near the Aleutians.

[Heisy]

You gotta hang in there man.  Don't be the one on the coaster who throws up.  Give it at least until Sunday 0z at least.  Be a real Mid Atl and hope until hope has run out

Yea, and the type of system this is evolving into is also very reliant on timing. I could see the GFS squash everything to the SE for a suite or 2 wouldn’t be shocked if that happened. Probably be a good thing. We want the EPS to stay the course and improve though


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[stormtracker]

So far, flatter than 12z, but TPV extension is a bit further east

[Heisy]

Can tell the GFS has morphed itself into the trailer wave idea as well, the trough is much farther backed up W vs prior runs. Timing will be more like euro


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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, flatter than 12z, but TPV extension is a bit further east

Hopefully a delayed but not denied scenario like the euro 

[Paleocene]

Credit to @Terpeast here, the presentation of what happens to the saturday-sunday cutter has changed dramatically over the last 48 hours on the GFS. TPV further east, no low spinning backward over the hudson, etc. I buy in to the "models need to see what's coming next" theory... chaos theory etc

[stormtracker]

Hmm, yeah, it's later than 12z

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Unless there's some surprise surprise, this run ain't it.  I'm sorry yall.  Dry af through 126

there is at least a pity trace Monday morning

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

there is at least a pity trace Monday morning

I jumped the gun comparing 12z.  It seems it's just later time frame

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I jumped the gun comparing 12z.  It seems it's just later time frame

Yep - things are getting gathered up to our S at 132. 

[GATECH]

Who is cleaning up the roller coaster?  

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly

[Heisy]

12z gfs was much faster because it was still in the middle of deciding between which wave to focus on. 18z is much more aligned with icon/euro progression . Trailer wave now gaining traction at this hour, it’s a bit farther E than Euro though so this might be out to sea but I’m happy about the GFS caving to that progression


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[NorthArlington101]

Very light snow at 138 

[stormtracker]

light snow at 144. 

[psuhoffman]

man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside.  

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

man if that strong wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside.  

yup, that confluence is the game changer

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside.  

it doesn't get there but appreciate seeing 3 smart posters in a row saying they like the trend

[stormtracker]

still light snow at 150, but doesn't appear to be an organized low so far

[stormtracker]

looks like the scenario @Heisy described.  It's a weak low that slid out to sea

[Shad]

moderate snow central virginia 144 .....not where we want it yet but you can see the potential for future runs

[Heisy]

man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside.  

Lol at me saying 5 minutes before the run to probably expect an out to sea run or 2. This is absolutely fine. It’s the GFS’ cave run. Get the trailer wave backed up a little farther W in future runs and we good. The GFS doing this just gives more credit towards euro camp. Cya all at 00z


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[stormtracker]

1-3" area wide. 1 toward the cities..3 for Cape.   So timing has moved toward the Euro.  We're not done yet yall!  See ya at 0z

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

still light snow at 150, but doesn't appear to be an organized low so far

it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat.  

[WxUSAF]

What you all said. Pretty big step toward a 12z euro-like solution, but can’t put it together. Euro has more southern stream energy. GFS doesn’t have that and splits the northern stream energy into pieces.

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat.  

I actually like where we are rn.  Should be a fun few days

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I actually like where we are rn.  Should be a fun few days

I feel a lot better than I did coming into today.  The flavor of this threat changed in a way I wasn't expecting...and it was a favorable change for a change.  

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I actually like where we are rn.  Should be a fun few days

this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3